Wot Happens Next?

This is a discussion on Wot Happens Next? within the Technical Analysis forums, part of the Methods category; It's been a few years since the last Wot Happened Next series so thought I'd start another with slightly different ...

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Old May 29, 2017, 11:26am   #1
 
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Wot Happens Next?

It's been a few years since the last Wot Happened Next series so thought I'd start another with slightly different twist. Changed "happened" to "happens" so we're looking forward. Interested in how TA might be used as a tool for trading (NOT as a predictor).

So, here we go. The instrument is Diageo (DGE). You will see from the weekly chart that price has made four failed attempts to close above the March high and has now done so. Also you will see from the daily chart that it has also closed above the earlier daily high closes although it has not challenged the intraday high reached on 17/5

How, then, would you plan to trade it?
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Old May 29, 2017, 11:56am   #2
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Sell in May and go away?
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Old May 29, 2017, 12:09pm   #3
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sell the 1800 put two months to expiry buy 1600 1 month to expiry

something like that
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Old May 29, 2017, 12:27pm   #4
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Its a Buy. Although its a dull chart in a dull index.
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Old May 29, 2017, 12:31pm   #5
 
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For me there is no contextual info.
What is the FTSE doing and what is the sector doing, will the Corbyn creature come to power and when are company results?
Just to mention a few of the main influences.
Direction is not as clear as other trading instruments so why choose this one to trade I would ask myself.
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Old May 29, 2017, 2:14pm   #6
 
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Its in an uptrend, a continuation breakout with a price objective only to 2500 (according to P&F)
thats because the real breakout should have been taken much earlier when the trend actually resumed some 100 points below
I wouldn't be taking this trade only in that its late..

assuming I was still in the trade, I'd be considering taking some profit at the P&F target, and moving my stop to 2170, slightly below the last higher low and trailing the stop accordingly based on higher low
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Old May 29, 2017, 2:21pm   #7
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see buy it with a stop below 2275 , if u like trading like this .
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Old May 29, 2017, 4:27pm   #8
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by barjon View Post
It's been a few years since the last Wot Happened Next series so thought I'd start another with slightly different twist. Changed "happened" to "happens" so we're looking forward. Interested in how TA might be used as a tool for trading (NOT as a predictor).

So, here we go. The instrument is Diageo (DGE). You will see from the weekly chart that price has made four failed attempts to close above the March high and has now done so. Also you will see from the daily chart that it has also closed above the earlier daily high closes although it has not challenged the intraday high reached on 17/5

How, then, would you plan to trade it?
I don't know that "failed" is the right word. If one includes volume, he can see that buyers have supported this stock for three months though they have withdrawn their buying interest at each apparent attempt at a new high. This suggests accumulation, though there are many reasons why they might abandon the effort without notice: economic, corporate, etc. Which is a chief reason why buying a breakout carries more risk than buying the retracement.
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Old May 29, 2017, 4:31pm   #9
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by foroom lluzers View Post
see buy it with a stop below 2275 , if u like trading like this .

why 2275? thx!
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Old May 29, 2017, 6:52pm   #10
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go for 20% of intended stake now , 20 % at 22.50 , 20 % at 21.50 , 20 % at 20.50 and 20 % at 19.50 .

Don't risk more than 2 % of account in the above 100 %.If it breaks lower just be-positive and say it was for your grand children , your grandchildren (that you know of ).It elimiminates emotional and psychological issues of trading.

No! On second thoughts you prefer to market time this entry and hope it goes to 10000 , you are trading your emotions with the one entry.5 ENTRIES IS CALCULATED TRADING
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Old May 29, 2017, 6:59pm   #11
 
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barjon started this thread Well, here's a plan. I have no idea where price will go next but I'm willing to make some assumptions at this point.
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Old May 29, 2017, 7:27pm   #12
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Well, here's a plan. I have no idea where price will go next but I'm willing to make some assumptions at this point.
Do you ever bet on horse trends?
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Old May 29, 2017, 7:41pm   #13
 
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I think this share price are at current highs and fundamentals don't look like growing but more shrinking. Revenue is flat lining whilst operating profit falling with the industry facing some head winds. Directors also selling shares in May. Dividend cover is falling from 2 three years ago to 1.5 - in the wrong direction for my liking.

It would have to break out of 2349-2362 zone for me to have any confidence in going long.

fwiw I'd be looking for shorting opportunities if any weakness with a view to entering below 2335-39 areas and exiting around 2280s.
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Old May 29, 2017, 8:11pm   #14
 
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barjon started this thread
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Originally Posted by foroom lluzers View Post
Do you ever bet on horse trends?
Well, I suppose that means something to the trained mind
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Old May 29, 2017, 10:38pm   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by foroom lluzers View Post
go for 20% of intended stake now , 20 % at 22.50 , 20 % at 21.50 , 20 % at 20.50 and 20 % at 19.50 .

Don't risk more than 2 % of account in the above 100 %.If it breaks lower just be-positive and say it was for your grand children , your grandchildren (that you know of ).It elimiminates emotional and psychological issues of trading.

No! On second thoughts you prefer to market time this entry and hope it goes to 10000 , you are trading your emotions with the one entry.5 ENTRIES IS CALCULATED TRADING
No, it's just averaging down into a losing position.

If first entry takes off, then 1/5th stake won't offset all the losers.

Crap strategy.......bin it !
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