TA debunked?

This is a discussion on TA debunked? within the Technical Analysis forums, part of the Methods category; Originally Posted by ChocolateDigestive Absolute to5h with hidden agenda as per normal. Which, as usual, you are unable to break ...

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Old Jul 21, 2012, 12:19am   #25
 
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Re: TA debunked?

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Originally Posted by ChocolateDigestive View Post
Absolute to5h with hidden agenda as per normal.
Which, as usual, you are unable to break down point by point.

This is a discussion forum and not a playground CD.

It is very simple. We can discuss, disagree, debate points that others make and have a healthy discussion. Or we can do what you do.

Why you resort to such tactics is beyond me. You seem to have your nose permanently out of joint.
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Old Jul 21, 2012, 12:45am   #26
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Re: TA debunked?

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Can someone please tell me where everyone gets this ridiculous idea that TA is predictive ? Is it written in a book somewhere ?, is there a website where this nonsense is being promoted ?

Where did this ridiculous urban myth start, and why does an alleged trading forum allow it to continue ?

I could point you to thousands of books, articles, and websites where there is clear and definite proof provided that TA is non predictive. There's a mountain of evidence to support that view.

Despite all of the evidence to the contrary, trading forums are filled with people discussing the predictive capabilities of TA. What is it about forums that lead to such irrational behavior ?

when we talk about TA, it doesn't just mean using indicators etc. Once we open the chart and read off the prices, without plugging in indicators, it is also considered TA! And we should get the term "prediction" right. A prediction is just a prediction. The only outcome is just whether its accurate, or not. That's all. Whether we consider TA predictive or not, it depends. If we can understand and use our tools properly, we can "predict" the next move and act accordingly. That "predictive" property of TA derives from our minds!

Take another example, no indicators, no nothing. Only price chart (candles, bars etc). Even reading off the current price is "predicting" isn't it.? If you interpret a bunch of rising candles around a support as being bullish, then you are "predicting" the next one to be rising as well. Past price data is also "predictive" , why not? You read off support and resistance levels in the past as well , isn't it so? And then you "predict" that price is coming back to test those areas. Who says TA is not "predictive" ? The term "self fullfiling prophecy" comes to mind
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Old Jul 21, 2012, 1:37am   #27
 
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Re: TA debunked?

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Originally Posted by the hare View Post
Can someone please tell me where everyone gets this ridiculous idea that TA is predictive ? Is it written in a book somewhere ?
Yes unfortunately, many of them.
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Old Jul 21, 2012, 4:54am   #28
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Re: TA debunked?

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Yes unfortunately, many of them.
many things, ideas in trading are subjective. Only Mr Market is right.
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Old Jul 21, 2012, 7:13am   #29
 
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Re: TA debunked?

I think trading is mostly subjective and I think a lot of textbook TA promises an objective method of analysis.

Admittedly, it's been a number of years since I read a TA book. Mind you - I've just read Markets In Profile by James Dalton and I thought it was fantastic.

I think the biggest failing in all the most popular TA books - Alexander Elder and the like - is that they talk as if the charts are the market. They discuss indicators/candlesticks etc as if they are the market and as if understanding them is what makes you a good trader. It is as if you can learn the indicators and patterns and not really have any clue other than that in order to make money.

I think you can only make money from charts if you understand the market they represent. That gives you the context within which you can read something into the activity you see on the chart.

If you take concepts like "oversold" on an indicator - it's complete tosh. Oversold conditions do occur, they are fairly easy to spot, not so easy to trade though as you need large spheres. They have little relationship to the "oversold" in those 40 year old techniques you read in traditional TA journals though.
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Old Jul 21, 2012, 7:38am   #30
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Re: TA debunked?

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Yes unfortunately, many of them.
There is no way that a market can be predictive. Chart patterrns do reoccur, giving the trader an impression that they are predictive but it is my experience that they are only so in hindsight and what did happen should have been predicted-

I have ceased to be surprised by what happens. I do what I think is a probability and believe that the longer one is in a trade, the more likely it is to go wrong, in the end.
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Old Jul 21, 2012, 8:17am   #31
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Re: TA debunked?

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Originally Posted by DionysusToast View Post
I think the biggest failing in all the most popular TA books - Alexander Elder and the like - is that they talk as if the charts are the market. They discuss indicators/candlesticks etc as if they are the market and as if understanding them is what makes you a good trader.
yes the chart IS the market. If not, can you tell me what is?
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Old Jul 21, 2012, 8:21am   #32
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Re: TA debunked?

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yes the chart IS the market. If not, can you tell me what is?
The chart was the market. Are you telling me that you are predictive?
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