TA debunked?

This is a discussion on TA debunked? within the Technical Analysis forums, part of the Methods category; Originally Posted by DionysusToast I think the biggest failing in all the most popular TA books - Alexander Elder and ...

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Old Jul 21, 2012, 9:17am   #31
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Re: TA debunked?

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Originally Posted by DionysusToast View Post
I think the biggest failing in all the most popular TA books - Alexander Elder and the like - is that they talk as if the charts are the market. They discuss indicators/candlesticks etc as if they are the market and as if understanding them is what makes you a good trader.
yes the chart IS the market. If not, can you tell me what is?
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Old Jul 21, 2012, 9:21am   #32
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Re: TA debunked?

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Originally Posted by PATrader View Post
yes the chart IS the market. If not, can you tell me what is?
The chart was the market. Are you telling me that you are predictive?
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Old Jul 21, 2012, 9:23am   #33
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Re: TA debunked?

Just because we all experience different things doesn't mean the other persons view of the world is eiteher wrong or flawed.

TECHNICAL =
1.
belonging or pertaining to an art, science, or the like: technical skill.
2.
peculiar to or characteristic of a particular art, science, profession, trade, etc.: technical details.
3.
using terminology or treating subject matter in a manner peculiar to a particular field, as a writer or a book: a technical report.
4.
skilled in or familiar in a practical way with a particular art, trade, etc., as a person.
5.
of, pertaining to, or showing technique.

ANALYSIS =
1.

the separating of any material or abstract entity into its constituent elements ( opposed to synthesis).
2.
this process as a method of studying the nature of something or of determining its essential features and their relations: the grammatical analysis of a sentence.
3.
a presentation, usually in writing, of the results of this process: The paper published an analysis of the political situation.
4.
a philosophical method of exhibiting complex concepts or propositions as compounds or functions of more basic ones.
5.
Mathematics .
a.
an investigation based on the properties of numbers.
b.
the discussion of a problem by algebra, as opposed to geometry.
c.
the branch of mathematics consisting of calculus and its higher developments.
d.
a system of calculation, as combinatorial analysis or vector analysis.
e.
a method of proving a proposition by assuming the result and working backward to something that is known to be true. Compare synthesis ( def. 4 ) .


I reckon we all do the above... How else do we decide where the majority of other traders think price is fair or unfair. ?

Whether you use a Japanese Candlestick, Point&Figure, Line, Average, 100 previous price points, we all have to study the price as of where it was and where it is in relation to it, on any time frame.

From our analysis or home work we shouldn't have to trade randomly, we can wait for price to come to a level and trade what we think is the next higher probability trade there. Otherwise you may as well flip a coin.

If a purely fundamental trader said they didn't use any technical analysis, they would only be allowed to know the current price of a company, the name of the company, the name of the directors and the country in which the company was based and worked in.

As soon as you start working out where the price of the companies share is in relation to the amount of cash they have, in relation to how many shares are in the market, where the overal market is in relation to itself and the company, you are basically talking numbers, historical and present. All of which can be neatly presented in a chart, spread sheet, or brokers note. Which from the above definitions in my opinion, is from as soon as you do any analysis, Technical Analysis.
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Old Jul 21, 2012, 9:38am   #34
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Re: TA debunked?

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Originally Posted by DionysusToast View Post
Yes unfortunately, many of them.
you must be reading different books to me
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Old Jul 21, 2012, 9:54am   #35
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Re: TA debunked?

I have told of my experience with Next PLC on previous occasions. This company was going through a bad period, with George Davis, his resignation etc. It was making tens of millions of pounds profit, had no debt and had a policy of organic growth ie. would not take over existing firms to increase expansion.

I read about this, at first, in Jim Slater's "The Zulu Principle". He said that, then, it was down to a few pence. When I read the book it was something over 1 pound, still. I did the numbers and bought the shares. Charts, in no way, gave a true indication of the value of this company. In fact, it looked like a basket case.

Lots of other companies today, are not priced at their true worth. Or are they? Charts represent the fear and hopes that investors have in that share. Most of the FT100 shares are not growth shares but they are safe havens. So they say. Charts, in the main, show what the investor thinks of their future prospects but, quite often, scandal will blind an investor's judgement adversely. Or the opposite can happen.

Slater's book cost me 19 pounds, by the way!
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Old Jul 21, 2012, 10:30am   #36
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Re: TA debunked?

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The chart was the market. Are you telling me that you are predictive?
The chart is a footprint of the market. Everyone predicts, that's needless to say. Even if I am looking at the right most candle right now, I am also predicting. The market 10 days ago and now could be in an uptrend. So I am predicting that the trend will continue. Yes, i am predictive, so is everybody else reading charts or using fundamentals.
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Old Jul 21, 2012, 11:29am   #37
 
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Re: TA debunked?

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Originally Posted by DionysusToast View Post
Which, as usual, you are unable to break down point by point.

This is a discussion forum and not a playground CD.

It is very simple. We can discuss, disagree, debate points that others make and have a healthy discussion. Or we can do what you do.

Why you resort to such tactics is beyond me. You seem to have your nose permanently out of joint.
I would more accurately say this is a forum and not a place for you to sell your products and come out with absolute nonsense. There is no point arguing with you point by point as you have a different agenda which is all about pushing people back to your tape reading tools.

By the way you dont seem to grasp that using your vendored tools for looking at tape reading patterns that have occurred in the past. oh look I have counted up 1000 contracts there against the bid, oh good I know the cause now. You can see different things from a chart but in principle they are no different, there is no more 'cause' analysis in what you are doing than in a chart.

nothing wrong with a pin bar, its just price beaten away from a level and closing below the start price in a set time period. problems with pin bars come when people make assumptions about them loaded with biases.
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Old Jul 21, 2012, 12:23pm   #38
 
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Re: TA debunked?

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Originally Posted by PATrader View Post
yes the chart IS the market. If not, can you tell me what is?
Actually, the chart is just a visual representation of the result of trading in the market.

It's not the market itself.
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Old Jul 21, 2012, 12:24pm   #39
 
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Re: TA debunked?

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Originally Posted by the hare View Post
you must be reading different books to me
Well - it's pretty rare I read anything on trading any more, the amount of tripe that's out there.
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Old Jul 21, 2012, 12:29pm   #40
 
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Re: TA debunked?

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Originally Posted by ChocolateDigestive View Post
I would more accurately say this is a forum and not a place for you to sell your products and come out with absolute nonsense. There is no point arguing with you point by point as you have a different agenda which is all about pushing people back to your tape reading tools.
And the forum is not a place for you to go around insulting people and attempting to belittle them. Still, you seem to enjoy doing that, even though it usually ends up backfiring.

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Originally Posted by ChocolateDigestive View Post
By the way you dont seem to grasp that using your vendored tools for looking at tape reading patterns that have occurred in the past. oh look I have counted up 1000 contracts there against the bid, oh good I know the cause now. You can see different things from a chart but in principle they are no different, there is no more 'cause' analysis in what you are doing than in a chart.
Correct & that is EXACTLY why I'm not mentioning that on the thread It is irrelevant to the conversation as it's not being discussed.

You just made assumptions loaded with biases as to why I posted here.

I understand why you follow me around here, I do actually take it as a compliment.

Thanks for mentioning that I sell products, it always ups the hit count on my site when someone points that out. Most people fail to notice

Quote:
Originally Posted by ChocolateDigestive View Post
nothing wrong with a pin bar, its just price beaten away from a level and closing below the start price in a set time period. problems with pin bars come when people make assumptions about them loaded with biases.
Correct - although in agreeing with you, I guess I'm trying to push my products.
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