NSE Nifty EOD Analysis - Continuous

Friends,

I am going to start a continuous thread on analysis of Nifty. Your comments will be most welcome.

On Wednesday Nifty opened down sharply and touched intraday low of 3312, and since then huge buying seen in nifty based stocks and nifty finally ended the day with massive 100+ points high at 3484.

Nifty downside supports now comes at 3435 (200 DSMA) and 3401 (200 DEMA). Below 200 DMA support next support comes from 5 DMA at 3359 and 3102 (20 DMA). Daily RSI-2 at 99.48 whereas weekly RSI-2 is at 98.89 both in highly overbought region now. Nifty can show huge volatility in any upmove and in any downmove below 3350 can initiate fresh short building and we can see a correction upto 3225/3150. Many Nifty based stocks like Ambuja Cements, BHEL, DLF, HCL Tech, ICICI Bank, L&T, RPower are trading far above the daily Bollinger Band and can see sudden correction in these stocks. But before taking positional short position in Nifty, please confirm that Nifty can not sustain the 200 DEMA at 3400 because if Nifty closes above the 200 DMA for two more days, we can see the same rally extending till 3700 without any significant correction.

Pivot levels of Nifty spot for Thursday, 16th April:

• R3 - 3736.40
• R2 - 3617.00
• R1 - 3550.60
• Pivot - 3431.20
• S1 - 3364.80
• S2 - 3245.40
• S3 - 3179.00

:smart: Cheers and regards,

Indrajit

Nifty levels for 17th April, 2009

Yesterday Nifty opened flat and tested intraday high of 3511 in the morning trades itself. Then Nifty started sliding and tried to take support on its 200 DMA, but failed and plunged more than 100 points to finally close down 114 points at 3370 just above its 5 DMA support. Fresh short building seen in Nifty future, Reliance Capital, ICICI Bank, DLF, Tata Steel, Infosys and Suzlon whereas Reliance and RCom plunged due to profit booking.

Huh, so 5 DMA and 200 DMA now holds the key for the weekend. If Nifty can not sustain its 5 DMA support at 3363 and closes below it for a couple of days we can see more downfall till 3312/3150/2960 levels. Upside resistance now exists at 200 DEMA at 3401 and 200 DSMA at 3429. Daily RSI-2 was highly over-bought on last closing and in one day sell of reached strong bearish zone at 38.05. Weekly RSI-2 still at 98.13, which is highly overbought. This is the 6th week we were in an upmove. Historical charts reveal that maximum rally in nifty sustained for 7 consecutive weeks and mostly the rally terminated after 4-5 weeks. Watch closely the trend decider 5 vs 200 DMA. My chatroom members already experienced how a moving average support or resistance works on real time.

Pivot levels of Nifty spot for Friday, 17th April:

R3 - 3626.20
R2 - 3568.70
R1 - 3469.10
Pivot - 3411.60
S1 - 3312.00
S2 - 3254.50
S3 - 3154.90

Regards,

Indrajit

Thanks. Keep posting on nifty whenever possible.regards.

Thanks Rishikesh for ur comments. Nifty outlook for tomorrow as follows:

For the last 3 trading sessions we are witnessing immense resistance at 3500 level and immense support at 3350 level and Nifty is trading in wide range of 150 points either side amidst high volatility. The 5 DMA level is indeed proving to be a great support for Nifty. Friday too Nifty opened gap up and started upside journey after open, touched intraday high of 3490 and plunged shaply below sub 3400 levels to finally closed at 3384 just above the 5 DMA support at 3370.



But technically still the daily trend is up till we dont close below 3350 and weekly trend is up above 3150. So we need to monitor those levels closely. Daily RSI-2 is at 46.62 and weekly RSI-2 is at 98.28 still highly overbought. In the last post too I told its a tussle betwwen 5 and 200 DMA and any close below 5 DMA can end the current rally in Nifty. If Nifty can not sustain 3350 level on closing basis, we can see lower levels like 3310/3225/3150. Upside resistance is at 200 DMA 3423 and if Nifty can respect support at 3350 and can close above 3500 the same rally can be extended till 3800. So the 3500-3350 range breakout will decide the future of market.

Get end of day charts of all Nifty-50 stocks only at Nifty-50 Daily section and charts of 50 midcap stocks now available at Midcaps Daily section. Will try to post how to read these charts and profit from it at the forum. Cheers!!

Weekly pivot levels of Nifty spot:

R3 - 3692.70
R2 - 3602.00
R1 - 3492.20
Pivot - 3402.50
S1 - 3293.70
S2 - 3203.00
S3 - 3094.20

Pivot levels of Nifty spot for Monday, 20th April:

R3 - 3593.70
R2 - 3541.80
R1 - 3463.10
Pivot - 3411.20
S1 - 3332.50
S2 - 3280.60
S3 - 3201.90

Regards and cheers,
Indrajit

brokers

Hi guys

You guys are in India ?

Is it possible to trade Nifty futures from UK ? Interactive brokers actually provide their data freee of charge, but I havent tried trading them.

I do buy INdian shares via Jiojit brokers in India - I am part of the portfolio investment schme for NRIs and PIOs. But we are not allowed to trade in futures and options or in short selling.
So I was intersted in wether your analysis could actually be used from UK or not.

Thanks
Combo.

Dear combotrader,
hopefully can be done coz foreign funds are trading heavily in nifty future. u can contact big brokers like sharekhan (Online Share Trading Portal India, Stock Brokers Company India) or india infoline (5Paisa.com - Your currency for online trading and e-broking in India).

regards

indrajit

Nifty Outlook for 21st April, 2009

It is the 4th consecutive trading session that the bears were unable to crack and close below 5 DMA support. Nifty today opened flat and testedintraday high of 3341, then it started sliding and even slided below the 5 DMA support for a while, but could not sustain at the lower level and recovered smartly to close at 3377. Fresh short building seen in Nifty future, ICICI Bank and Infosys, whereas fresh buying seen in Tata Steel. Profit booking seen in Reliance, SBIN, RCom and NTPC.

In the technicals immediate supports for Nifty now at 3372 (5 DMA) and huge upside resistance exists between 3400-3420 from the 200 DSMA and 200 DEMA. Below 5 DMA support strong support exists around 3300 level which is actually the low of the trading channel between which Nifty is trading since the rally started on 13th of March. The Nifty daily candle has formed a spinning top pattern today, which clearly denotes uncertainity among traders. Daily RSI-2 is in sell mode at 41.06. One big concern for the bulls is that my favourite 3/10 oscillator has generated a sell signal on Nifty daily charts. If 5 DMA support is not respected bears can have an upper hand over bulls till the expiry. Cheers!!

Pivot levels of Nifty spot for Tuesday, 21st April:

R3 - 3533.90
R2 - 3487.50
R1 - 3432.30
Pivot - 3385.90
S1 - 3330.70
S2 - 3284.30
S3 - 3229.10

Regards,

Indrajit

Nifty outlook for 22nd April:

It is the 5th consecutive trading session that a strong tussle existed between bulls and bears amidst high volatility. Nifty today opened negative and tested intraday low of 3309, then it started recovering and touched day high of 3415, but just like last session it again slided sharply in the last phase of the session to finally close at 3365. Fresh short building seen in Nifty future, ICICI Bank, Reliance Cap and Tata Steel, whereas fresh buying seen in DLF and HDIL.

Nothing much to add after yesterday's post. Only one addition, Nifty finally closed just below the 5 DMA at 3370 and it will now act as an resistance and its a big concern for bulls. Immediate supports for Nifty now comes at 3310/3250/3150 and resistances comes at 3410/3510/3650. Daily RSI-2 is at 29.63 in strong bear grip and 3/10 oscillator is holding the sell signal. Tomorrow may be the trend decider day till expiry and looks like bears till now has an edge over bulls. Closely watch out the support resistance levels for your trading decisions.

Pivot levels of Nifty spot for Wednesday, 22nd April:
R3 - 3522.10
R2 - 3468.40
R1 - 3416.80
Pivot - 3363.10
S1 - 3311.50
S2 - 3257.80
S3 - 3206.20

Regards,

Indrajit

Nifty Outlook for 23rd April, 2009

All the bears are wishing a mega fall, but the market is not convincingly falling and witnessing recovery everyday. Today Nifty opened flat and tested intraday high of 3401 in the early trades, again started sliding like the previous few sessions and tested the strong support around 3300 level, but again witnessed buying pressure to close finally at 3330 down 35 points. Fresh short building seen in Nifty future, ICICI Bank, DLF and Tata Steel, whereas fresh buying seen in Reliance Capital and Suzlon.



So Nifty is moving from channel to channel, the upward broad trading channel is now replaced by a short 100 points spread slightly downward trading channel. Still Nifty has closed between both the channels. So unless and untill Nifty breaks the channels either side there will be no final move. The attached picture of Nifty is self explanatory. Daily RSI-2 is at 11.17, highly bearish, but weekly RSI-2 is at 61.81, in sell mode, but still in strong bull zone. Nifty resistances upside are at 3357 (5 DMA) and 3405 (200 DMA) and support comes from 3300 (lower end of upward trading channel) and 3205 (20 DMA). Its still a 50-50 to bulls and bears. If tomorrow also Nifty trades in the same channel, the projected high and low range will be 3375-3275. Hence watch out for any break-out either side.

Pivot levels of Nifty spot for Thursday, 23rd April:

R3 - 3492.80
R2 - 3446.90
R1 - 3388.60
Pivot - 3342.70
S1 - 3284.40
S2 - 3238.50
S3 - 3180.20

Regards,

Indrajit

Nifty Analysis for 24th April, 2009

So finally after 4 sessions of strong battle between bulls and bears, the bulls finally ruled over the bears and today Nifty has finally cleared both 5 DMA and 200 DSMA and closed over them. Nifty today opened flat and tested intraday support of 3311 in the early trades. But after that Nifty witnessed a smart recovery till 3440 and finally closed at 3424 well above its 200 DSMA. Fresh buying seen in ICICI Bank, Tata Steel, DLF and HDIL and huge short covering seen in Nifty future, Reliance, Reliance Capital, SBIN, Infosys and RCom.

So technically, Nifty now has downwards support at 3400 (200 DSMA) and 3379 (5 DMA). Below 3379, Nifty has downward support at 3297. Daily RSI-2 is at 79.46 and currently buy mode in super bullish zone. Overall if Nifty can close over its 200 DSMA for a couple of more days, we can be braced by the rally extending towards 3650/3800. Coincidentally 3810 is the 38.2% retracement level of the January 2008 high to October 2008 low. So, far we are in the uptrend we need to be long. Positional players can hold long in Nifty with a closing SL below 5 DMA.

Pivot levels of Nifty spot for Friday, 24th April:

R3 - 3601.60
R2 - 3520.70
R1 - 3472.20
Pivot - 3391.30
S1 - 3342.80
S2 - 3261.90
S3 - 3213.40

Regards,

Indrajit

Dear Indrajit,
Your overall review of Nifty movement is awesome !
By the way, do you trade a lot in Nifty Futures/Options ?
Keep sharing your invaluable inputs, as always.
Thanks and Regards,
Subbaraju
[email protected]

Dear Raju, I am a full time Nifty futures trader.

Regards

Indrajit

Nifty Analysis for 29th April, 2009

Sorry folks,

Could not post the Nifty levels for the last couple of days as I was out of station and forgot to take my Laptop . So let me start afresh for tomorrow 29th April.

Nifty today remained under strong bear grip for the entire day and started sliding since the open. In the afternoon trades, it found some support near our today's pivot S3 level and finally closed at 3362, down almost 108 points. Fresh short building seen in counters like ICICI Bank, DLF, JP Associates whereas Nifty future, Reliance, SBI, Rel Cap, Tata Steel, RCom all plunged due to profit booking.

Technically, Nifty has broken and closed below all major EMA supports and all supports will now work as a resistance. Upside resistances for Nifty now exists at 3388 (200 DSMA) and 3409 (5 DMA). Downside support for Nifty exists at 3295-3280 level and if this is broken we can see more sharp fall in Nifty till 3150 in coming sessions. Daily RSI-2 is at 18.48, in strong bearish zone and presently in sell mode. Tomorrow is the expiry due to general election in Mumbai on Thursday. Overall, if Nifty continues the same downward momentum tomorrow morning also, it may take support near 3275 level from where we can expect a bounce back. If Nifty trades positive tomorrow morning, new longs can be initiated above our pivot level. Cheers!!

Pivot levels of Nifty spot for Wednesday, 29th April:

• R3 - 3559.60
• R2 - 3515.80
• R1 - 3439.10
• Pivot - 3395.30
• S1 - 3318.60
• S2 - 3274.80
• S3 - 3198.10

Regards,

Indrajit

Cool gain of 85 points today

Friends,

Remember my last post, Nifty today made a high of around 3480, once it went passed my pivot levels of 3395. Thats a cool gain of 85 points. Cheers!! Its a long week end. So watch out for this space, for my weekly update in the weekend.

Indrajit

Nifty Analysis

So, another long week-end for us, probably the last in the first half of the year. Its once again the time to switch off the movie and IPL for some time and prepare ourselves for the next week's trades. Last week Nifty closed at 3474, near to its strong resistance zone of 3500-3520. We have already seen two failed attempts of Nifty to clear the resistance in the last ten sessions. So, next week we have got two probablities. One Nifty can clear and close above the resistance zone and head for its next target of 3650. Another, Nifty can again respect the resistance and move down towards its support zones of 3430 and 3385. I read some analysis of my fellow analysts in the web and most of them are suggesting shorts in Nifty on Monday. But as per my system I can't suggest for shorts just as Nifty is near to some important resistance. Because, from my little experience, I have seen that major resistances get broken in strong uptrends and vice versa for strong down-trends. Better, I will suggest buying Nifty if it breaks and sustains above the resistance for some times for a swing target of 3650. Shorts always possible if Nifty trades and sustains below the 5 DMA support for some times for a minimum target of 200 DMA.

I have also noticed, some people is talking about me that I reverse in my sayings in blog and chat-room. Suppose I am bear in blog and next morning I am super bullish in my chat room. Thanks to internet revolution, nowadays, every Tom, Dick and Harry can become a TA. A small suggestion to those critics and so called analysts is that, its not me who reverses, its the market who reverses. And as per my system I can do nothing but follow the levels the market offers me at that very moment. And I can never go long or short just due to anticipation or gut feeling. Better, I will enter late in the same trade and earn less than those anticipatory traders and so called analysts. Hopefully, the market already taught a lesson to those so called TAs who shorted and sugested shorting at 3440 level on last trading day.

Now a quick look at the Nifty technicals. Supports are existing at 3430 (5 DMA), 3386 (200 DMA) and 3298 (20 DMA). Daily RSI-2 is at 68.24 in strong bullish zone and in buy mode, but weekly RSI-2 is at 92.47 in sell mode (my only concern). So, my only trading idea for tomorrow, is that forget gap up or gap down, just ride the trend the market offers you in tomorrow morning. Trading levels are already given in the first paragraph of the post. Cheers!!

Weekly pivot levels of Nifty spot:
R3 - 3709.50
R2 - 3613.40
R1 - 3543.70
Pivot - 3447.60
S1 - 3377.90
S2 - 3281.80
S3 - 3212.10

Pivot levels of Nifty spot for Monday, 4th May:
R3 - 3637.70
R2 - 3562.00
R1 - 3518.00
Pivot - 3442.30
S1 - 3398.30
S2 - 3322.60
S3 - 3278.

Regards,

Indrajit

Dear Indrajit,
I have just strated trading mininifty and am watching your levels.

Good work.keep it up.
Thank you.

Nifty Outlook for 5th May, 2009

atuldoc said:

Dear Indrajit,
I have just strated trading mininifty and am watching your levels.

Good work.keep it up.
Thank you.

Click to expand...

Thanks Atul for ur comment.

So, the dream came true yet again. We became braced with my yesterday's target of 3650 and my prediction also came true, that in case of strong up-trends all major resistances get broken. The 3515 resistance gone with the wind in the open itself. We witnessed fresh buying in Nifty future, ICICI Bank, Infosys, Rel Capital, Tata Steel and HDFC whereas Reliance, SBI and RCom have seen huge short covering rally. Nifty finally ended the day at 3654, up massive 180 points.

As par technicals supports are existing at 3505 (5 DMA), 3381 (200 DMA) and 3332 (20 DMA). Daily RSI-2 is at 89.30 and weekly RSI-2 is at 98.35 both in super bullish zone and in buy mode. Already I discussed a intraday technique in my chat room to trade gap days, that the free yahoo chart along with the auto decision given by the RSI-2 Calculator works fine in gap days. You can paper trade this strategy in the next gap day.

Now what? An week's target achieved in a single day. How to trade Nifty now? Two possibilities again. Nifty can target our Mount Everest 3800 in the same rally or Nifty can retest our last strong resistance of 3515 which will now work as a strong support. Tomorrow intraday longs can be initiated if market trades positive and the price breaks out the morning range upside. Fresh shorts can be initiated in case price trades and sustains below the pivot level for positional target of 3500. If you find the post helpful please share it with the share buttons below. Cheers!!

Pivot levels of Nifty spot for Tuesday, 5th May:


R3 - 3905.20
R2 - 3784.80
R1 - 3719.40
Pivot - 3599.00
S1 - 3533.60
S2 - 3413.20
S3 - 3347.80

Regards

Indrajit

Nifty Outlook for 6th May, 2009

So after yesterday's massive gains we have seen a rather rangebound day today. Nifty opened flat and tested intraday low level of 3619 for quite a number of times but failed to sustain lower. Tested intraday high of 3682 and finally closed at 3662 amidst high volatility. Fresh buying seen in Reliance, ICICI Bank, DLF, Tata Steel, Suzlon and HDIL whereas fresh short building seen in Infosys.

Pivot levels of Nifty spot for Wednesday, 6th May:

R3 - 3753.20
R2 - 3717.70
R1 - 3689.80
Pivot - 3654.30
S1 - 3626.40
S2 - 3590.90
S3 - 3563.00

Now, Nifty technicals quickly: Supports now existing at 3557 (5 DEMA) and 3379 (200 DMA). Upside resistance existing at 3735 (61.8% retracement level of August o8 high and October 08 lows) and at 3790 (200 Weekly MA). As a trading strategy tomorrow go long if Nifty breaks and sustains above the R1 level, and go short if Nifty breaks and sustains below S1 level. For targets please keep and eye on the other pivot levels. For positional longs, the peak (our Mt. Everest) is visible now. Remember the climate (read volatility) will be much more tough near the peak. Can we climb it up? Time better knows it, we can do nothing but ride the trend for now. Cheers!!

Regards

Indrajit

Nifty Trading Idea For 12th May 2009

Sorry folks, for not being able to update the thread in between due to huge work pressure. I apologise and let me post the Nifty trading idea for tomorrow 12th May.

I was going through the weekly charts of Nifty and an important point to note is that the last 9 weeks has shown white candles on charts. It means in the last nine weeks the close of the week was higher than the open. Law of average indicates that we are due for a correction. We already retraced 50% of the fall from August 2008 high to October 2008 lows. 61.8% retracement level now is placed at 3843 and can only be achieved incase of major news based trigger. How to trade Nifty now?

Technically, today Nifty has closed below its 5 DMA supports of 3596 and it can be a big trigger for the bears. Couple of more closes below the 5 DMA will confirm the end of the election rally started early March and can take Nifty down to lower levels of 3515, 3447 (20 DEMA) and 3366 (200 DMA). Daily RSI-2 is al 18.08, highly bearish and today weekly RSI-2 also came down sharply to 58.71 out of the strong bullish zone. If Nifty can not cross the 5 DMA tomorrow it can be shorted positionally with appropriate SL for the lower level targets mentioned above. Positional longs possible only if the daily resistance level of 3715 is taken off with volumes for an upside target of 3800-3850.

Pivot levels of Nifty spot for Tuesday, 12th May:

R3 - 3757.20
R2 - 3708.70
R1 - 3631.60
Pivot - 3583.10
S1 - 3506.00
S2 - 3457.50
S3 - 3380.40

As a intraday trading strategy tomorrow go long if Nifty breaks and sustains above the pivot level for targets of R1 and R2, and go short if Nifty breaks and sustains below S1 level for target of S2/S3. Keep a standard 25 points SL in all your intraday Nifty trades. On My last blog recommendation to short Nifty below the pivot level of 3665 made a low of 3535 today. That is an intraday gain of 30 Nifty points. Though the chatroom members spotted the intraday downtrend much earlier. Cheers!!

Regards

Indrajit

Nifty Trading Idea For 13th May 2009

Nifty again respected the 5 DMA support on closing basis and even after closing marginally below the 5 DMA last trading day, it bounced back and we witnessed a 150 points rally from the early morning lows to finally close Nifty at 3681, up more than 126 points from the last close. Fresh buying seen in Nifty future, ICICI Bank, Tata Steel, Rel Capital, DLF, HDIL, Suzlon and Infosys, where as Reliance moved up on short covering rally.

In today's trade Nifty again took support at last day's low level of 3635 and this level will now act as a strong support of Nifty. Apart from the support at 3535 other major supports for Nifty now exists at 3624 (5 DMA), 3470 (20 DEMA) and 3365 (200 DMA). Daily RSI-2 is at 72.77, again in strong bullish zone and today again weekly RSI-2 returned back to strong bullish zone at 98.81. Upside resistances for Nifty exists at 3709 and 3763 and above 3763 Nifty can head for 3844. No fresh positional long positions are advised in Nifty, in view of the upcoming election results. For the next few days its better a wait and watch play for the positional players.

Pivot levels of Nifty spot for Wednesday, 13th May:

R3 - 3894.60
R2 - 3793.10
R1 - 3737.10
Pivot - 3635.60
S1 - 3579.60
S2 - 3478.10
S3 - 3422.10

As a intraday trading strategy tomorrow go long if Nifty breaks and sustains above the R1 level for targets of R2 and R3, and go short if Nifty breaks and sustains below the pivot level for target of S1 and S2. Keep a standard 25 points SL in all your intraday Nifty trades. On my last blog recommendation to buy Nifty above the pivot level of 3583 made a high of 3692 today. That is an total intraday gain of 109 Nifty points. Hopefully my readers were able to book good profits from the recommendation. Cheers!!

Regards

Indrajit