lurkerlurker
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:!: Caution - Bears Ahead:!:
I'm new to these forums, used to lurk around as the nick would suggest.
I am a beginning trader who day trades equities and indices through SB firms. I am trading a small account, and have had mixed results so far.
I have been reading these forums, and note that many prominent members (and most likely experienced and sober traders) are carrying large shorts on the DJIA.
I think we can all agree that the fundamentals of the American economy aren't too good right now. I am struggling to find justification for these new highs, and have only come up with the "greater fool" theory. I'm not an investor, and I don't spend a lot of time considering intrinsic value, but I do believe that this has moved too far too fast.
My question to you all: is the bull run at an end, and if so, what indicators are going to give us an early warning to go short with acceptable risk reward? If the bull run is to continue, what scale of pullback to we want before going long?
For the really smart traders here- care to share with us if there are any other instruments which would indicate underlying weakness in the Dow, and what is the best way to take advantage of it? How will the prices of Crude, the values of GBPUSD. and other world indices lead or lag a sharp correction in the Dow.
Furthermore- where are the bears? The bulls are buying from somewhere, and not just profit taking longs. Higher highs totally unchallenged? Surely greed alone and the possibility of another February 29 2007 must surely have brought out the bears?
What broad economic indicators would forewarn of a correction? I see jobless claims are still down and manufacturing is up. There is a lot of liquidity here, and they no longer publish M3.
I know that the market can stay irrational longer than anyone (including folk like LTCM) can stay solvent, however we can all agree that this uptrend will stop. The question is when, and how are we all going to make a killing from it?
I've just opened a CMC account , and have gone as far as to install Windows 2000 under VMWare on my Linux box to use the fabulous MarketMaker. Since I've been playing with it, I've was going to attach daily candles of the Dow, with a 100 period EMA, a 150 period CCI (with OB/OS at +/- 200), and a 14 period RSI (with OB/OS at 80/20). I think this shows something interesting, but the board won't let me post it...
This is my first thread, so let the posts roll!
Finally, thanks to everyone here who have written articles and made insightful posts on the boards. Great community here. :cheesy:
I'm new to these forums, used to lurk around as the nick would suggest.
I am a beginning trader who day trades equities and indices through SB firms. I am trading a small account, and have had mixed results so far.
I have been reading these forums, and note that many prominent members (and most likely experienced and sober traders) are carrying large shorts on the DJIA.
I think we can all agree that the fundamentals of the American economy aren't too good right now. I am struggling to find justification for these new highs, and have only come up with the "greater fool" theory. I'm not an investor, and I don't spend a lot of time considering intrinsic value, but I do believe that this has moved too far too fast.
My question to you all: is the bull run at an end, and if so, what indicators are going to give us an early warning to go short with acceptable risk reward? If the bull run is to continue, what scale of pullback to we want before going long?
For the really smart traders here- care to share with us if there are any other instruments which would indicate underlying weakness in the Dow, and what is the best way to take advantage of it? How will the prices of Crude, the values of GBPUSD. and other world indices lead or lag a sharp correction in the Dow.
Furthermore- where are the bears? The bulls are buying from somewhere, and not just profit taking longs. Higher highs totally unchallenged? Surely greed alone and the possibility of another February 29 2007 must surely have brought out the bears?
What broad economic indicators would forewarn of a correction? I see jobless claims are still down and manufacturing is up. There is a lot of liquidity here, and they no longer publish M3.
I know that the market can stay irrational longer than anyone (including folk like LTCM) can stay solvent, however we can all agree that this uptrend will stop. The question is when, and how are we all going to make a killing from it?
I've just opened a CMC account , and have gone as far as to install Windows 2000 under VMWare on my Linux box to use the fabulous MarketMaker. Since I've been playing with it, I've was going to attach daily candles of the Dow, with a 100 period EMA, a 150 period CCI (with OB/OS at +/- 200), and a 14 period RSI (with OB/OS at 80/20). I think this shows something interesting, but the board won't let me post it...
This is my first thread, so let the posts roll!
Finally, thanks to everyone here who have written articles and made insightful posts on the boards. Great community here. :cheesy:
