US market commentary

This is a discussion on US market commentary within the Indices forums, part of the Markets category; Market commentary for 02/12/2007 Good day! Perhaps we are getting that break from consolidation. Remember it can break either way. ...

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Old Feb 12, 2007, 1:13pm   #8
Joined May 2006
xpertstocktrader started this thread Market commentary for 02/12/2007

Good day!
Perhaps we are getting that break from consolidation. Remember it can break either way. This could be the start of a weekly correction. I do know it is too early to say after just one weak day regardless how strong it was. After several choppy days the market started a correction yesterday right at 12:00 pm. I don’t know if that is significant but 15 min avalanche hit strong and we saw correction from daily high for the DIA and the SPY and the QQQQ is back in the middle of the daily range. The QQQQ continued its weekly consolidation and the SPY went back to the previous high support area. You can see how the previous resistance area become the support area now. It is important area for SPY because if it goes back under that support the SPY will not see any new daily highs for a while. In that case, the SPY will go back to its weekly consolidation area (base). It is interesting how channel lines hold every DIA try to break up or break down. Take a look on the daily chart how the DIA made new daily/weekly highs the last few days and that it was slightly a higher high and was enough to touch the channel resistance. After all this the DIA Friday went back to channel support line and we have same action as from December 2006. if we break the channel line we can see a great correction and that is what I expect the next few days.
Those who follow my commentary know that I was expecting a longer weekly correction several weeks ago. The market has been very strong so after one weak day I can't say this is a weekly correction. That will continue to be my focus and I will look for that possibility during the week. I will look for a weekly pullback to the 20sma support area for SPY and DIA and the QQQQ range support line (red line and previous high support area). That is my expectation but I will follow market and we will see. For now open Friday shorts look great, however, we shall see if the sell continues the first part of the week.
For the very near term we can expect after strong intraday move (big bar on the daily chart) the next day to see a consolidation day. The possibility of another trend day is not high. If that would happen that will be a sign of real weakness in the market. We rarely see this. I will look for the usual action and that will be 30/60 min correction. We need that time frame correction (consolidation), because Friday move down was so strong the 5/15 min correction will not be enough for a low risk setup. Shorter time frames will be good for faster trades only. Everything before the 30/60 min consolidation will be good for faster trades only. If we look 30/60 min chart and if we like to see low risk a setup then we need few days of consolidation. If we will get daily a continuation pattern (we need to see consolidation at lows).
If we expect a consolidation day then we can expect high risk market for swing traders, and mostly “sell high, buy low day”, and since I’m not that kind of trader since I look for breakouts and continuations. I expect a slow day and my activity will not be same as Friday activity. It is important to recognize what is happening in the market and follow it. If there is a change I will just go with it. But from charts that are in front of me that is what I will look for Monday.
In case we see more selling and another trend day down, great, I will follow open short positions. Trade smart.
Good luck trading today!!!!

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...qqqqweekly.jpg
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http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...2007qqqq60.jpg
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http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...7spyweekly.jpg
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I am always available via email and in the trading room if you have any questions.

Ivica Juracic
ivica@ivicacharts.com
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Old Feb 13, 2007, 12:37pm   #9
Joined May 2006
xpertstocktrader started this thread Market commentary for 02/13/2007

Good day!
There is something to the song that says you know when to hold em and when to fold em. Yesterday as expected was one of those days. After the strong move on Friday it is normal to see a high risk consolidation day. On the 15 min charts, you can see that every new 5 min selling wave was slower and slower with weaker pace. That is sign that the market need a longer correction on the 30/60 min chart. A lower risk probability will not happen until we see another day or two of consolidation. That means we can expect a higher risk market today. I expect a bounce in the morning. It will be nothing as strong as Fridays move down but more as a correction from yesterdays low. If that is the case then we can use that possibility to enter long day trades.
The 200sma is always a stronger support area on any time frame. The DIA and the SPY are at 200sma on the 60 min chart. Usually on the first try at that support area it will hold and we can see bounce. That is the possibility which I will look for this morning. Right now, we can't expect any longer bounce that can be used for faster intraday moves. There is a difference is with “own way” stock, like traps, gaps etc.
For the longer term, my bias is on the short side as I look for a daily/weekly correction. In the case we see weak open or a gap down which is always a possibility during earning season it will be to early to have a low risk short setup.
During consolidation days important is to not trade with same risk as when we have trend, so please keep that in mind.
Good luck trading today!!!!

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...132007qqqq.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...2007qqqq60.jpg

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...2132007spy.jpg
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http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...2132007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...32007dia60.jpg
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Old Feb 13, 2007, 12:48pm   #10
Joined Nov 2006
The markets seem to be in pivotal pressure condition today,

I will watch (mer) and few other leading stocks, a breach of either the high or the low of yesterdays range
can decide the trend of the next few days in the SP500
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Old Feb 14, 2007, 11:05am   #11
Joined May 2006
xpertstocktrader started this thread Market commentary for 02/14/2007

Good day!
History does repeat. Just look at the market and that is what we got. After Friday’s strong move down and Monday’s consolidation yesterday we saw a reversal. Today started with a gap up and we saw exactly the action that I expected during the morning. Unfortunately, the rest of the day I was on the wrong side of market. The major reason was I didn't expect the morning continuation. The QQQQ was the weakest index while the SPY and the DIA made nice recovery and back again above daily 20sma area. The DIA daily channel support line held again and we are back in the middle of daily range. Since Friday’s selling was strong, I will not expect the DIA or the SPY will see new daily highs anytime soon. Especially since the QQQQ still remains under the daily 10/20/50sma resistance areas. But that action could bring divergence which is the same as we had yesterday. Until the QQQQ or technology sees some strength we can continue to see the SPY and DIA outperform the QQQQ.
This is the reason I expect high risk, whippy trading action today and until the market decides what direction it will take I will trade with small risk and number of my trades will be less than usual.
I don’t have strong bias for the morning, earning news can gap the market in the morning, and I think that market can flip around without revealing its daily direction. I will wait to see market does at the open and monitor its breath and then I will go with the market action. Risk for swing traders will remain high and it is best is to start will a small position and then add if trade improves.
Good luck trading today!!!!

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...142007qqqq.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...2007qqqq60.jpg

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...2142007spy.jpg
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http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...2142007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...42007dia60.jpg
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Old Feb 15, 2007, 2:19pm   #12
Joined May 2006
xpertstocktrader started this thread Market commentary for 02/15/2007

Good day!
From a short term bearish bias to a short term bullish bias in few days. That pretty much explains the market action this week. The FED chairman says things are ok and that gives everyone the ok to buy. Don't you wish it was that easy?? After the gap up in the morning we saw a continued strong move up the rest of the day. The previous daily high and range area stopped yesterdays QQQQ action. The DIA again stopped at daily channel resistance while the SPY made new weekly high. All these reasons are telling us that we can be more on the bullish side right now. We still don't have a low risk swing setup pattern I will stay in the same mode about risk. Looking at the 60 min charts I will like to see consolidations first and then possible continuations. That is what why I will wait for a longer time. On the 60 min charts we saw two buying waves and we still have room for another move up. This without rest will increase risk because of past action. In the morning I will wait to see the market action and I will follow it. This is the same as I have done the last several weeks.
Individual names we have traded are going well for now in both directions. Risk for swing traders remain higher and I will stick with intraday moves. Longer term the Indices can break up from weekly consolidations and the action today can help us to achieve that. Best is to stay with strongest names for long side and weakest names for short side which is exactly what I do all the time.
I will go over the gainers lists to see if there will be some traps and bigger gaps for intraday action.
Good luck trading today!!!!

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...152007qqqq.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...2007qqqq60.jpg

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...2152007spy.jpg
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http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...2152007dia.jpg
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Old Feb 16, 2007, 2:06am   #13
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DWL
The FED chairman says things are ok and that gives everyone the ok to buy. Don't you wish it was that easy??
Gee... I listened to him and I didn't hear him say anything about whether I should buy or sell. Do you subscribe to his for-pay newsletter?
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Old Feb 16, 2007, 10:34am   #14
Joined May 2006
xpertstocktrader started this thread Well, I don't know how you understand Ben Bemanke speech, but when he talks about easing inflation for me that is good sign for bulls and in my opinion we saw that reaction. Maybe I understand something wrong, who know, but still think that his speech helped market to staying strong.

Ivica
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