US market commentary

This is a discussion on US market commentary within the Indices forums, part of the Markets category; My apologies if someone understand wrong. I'm not lucid one, or smartest trader. In my commentary, I just told how ...

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Old Feb 16, 2007, 1:54pm   #16
Joined May 2006
xpertstocktrader started this thread My apologies if someone understand wrong. I'm not lucid one, or smartest trader. In my commentary, I just told how market reacted and I'm just trader who follows market action. However, definitely we can say that market liked his speech, no matter how we understand it, reaction is up and that is what I follow. I'm TA trader and charts are my tools, but again, my opinion is that market like his speech and market reacted with strong intraday move up. Definitely, I'm not reason for that reaction. Here I just try to bring my expectations for the market possibilities for the next day and near future from charts view, nothing else.
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Ivica
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Old Feb 16, 2007, 1:58pm   #17
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xpertstocktrader started this thread Market commentary for 02/16/2007

Good day!
We got a narrow range day which I was hoping for. Unfortunately not exactly the type of NR day we wanted to see. For a continuation pattern we need to see consolidations at the highs but we donít want see a new high. That is what happened yesterday. The consolidation we saw yesterday had aslightly higher high and the continuation of previous resistance areas that eventually stopped yesterday activity. For the QQQQ that is upper daily range resistance area, the SPY number resistance area (146.00) and for the DIA the daily channel resistance line. Without a healthy consolidation which we did not see and today being options expiration I expect to see whippy intraday action today. Most option expiration days are whippy which add to risk. Iím a conservative trader and when I see a high risk market my activity slows down. It wouldn't be unusual for me not to take any trades today. The way to trade a whippy market is to use smaller lots and a larger stop amount. That way you will avoid false moves and fast reversals. In a whippy market you can see a trading pattern that can stop you out by just a couple of cents and then a fast reversal to new highs/lows. Being less active is also good on whippy days because overtrading is a trap most inexperienced traders fall. Another point in a whippy market is for the trader to be fast with exits to assure profits since it is logical not to expect the same risk/reward as usual.
I donít have strong bias for the morning so I will wait open and I will follow market action.
Good luck trading today!!!!

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...162007qqqq.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...2007qqqq60.jpg

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...2162007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...62007spy60.jpg

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...2162007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...62007dia60.jpg

Ivica Juracic
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Old Feb 16, 2007, 5:04pm   #18
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DWL
Well, I don't know how you understand Ben Bemanke speech, but when he talks about easing inflation for me that is good sign for bulls and in my opinion we saw that reaction. Maybe I understand something wrong, who know, but still think that his speech helped market to staying strong.

Ivica
I think you got what Bernanke said correct. But that doesn't translate into buying/selling equities. If the market anticipated this news then maybe stocks have already moved. If the market has still not accepted this (and it turns out to be true) then the markets will go up.

I expect the markets to go up, but one cannot draw a direct relationship of the future economy direction and magnitude with the future market direction and magnitude. Sometimes the market moves early and sometimes it moves late.
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Old Feb 16, 2007, 6:20pm   #19
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Originally Posted by ajaskey
I think you got what Bernanke said correct. But that doesn't translate into buying/selling equities. If the market anticipated this news then maybe stocks have already moved. If the market has still not accepted this (and it turns out to be true) then the markets will go up.

I expect the markets to go up, but one cannot draw a direct relationship of the future economy direction and magnitude with the future market direction and magnitude. Sometimes the market moves early and sometimes it moves late.
andy,are you still looking for a swing up first part of march?
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Old Feb 16, 2007, 7:39pm   #20
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ammo
andy,are you still looking for a swing up first part of march?
I was looking for a blow-off starting in late January. Since we are at mid-February now, I am leaning toward more basing until around March 9th. Even though the "market" is making new highs, the COMPQ and SOX are lagging. I think they both will move up strong when the SOX hits the next time line.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SO...80395635&r=110
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Last edited by ajaskey; Feb 16, 2007 at 9:11pm.
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Old Feb 16, 2007, 8:49pm   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ajaskey
I was looking for a blow-off starting in late January. Since we are at mid-February now, I am leaning toward more basing until around March 9th. Even though the "market" is making new highs, the COMPQ and SOX are lagging. I think they both will move up strong when the SOX hits the next time line.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SO...80395635&r=110
i believe the boys showed their hand last nite offering 6200 es at 1460 at about 2:58 on the close ,they usually show no more than 3500 on the bid or offer,maybe at 2 pm the will try to unwind their longs
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Old Feb 16, 2007, 9:18pm   #22
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ajaskey
I was looking for a blow-off starting in late January. Since we are at mid-February now, I am leaning toward more basing until around March 9th. Even though the "market" is making new highs, the COMPQ and SOX are lagging. I think they both will move up strong when the SOX hits the next time line.
Here is the shorter term. The SOX ran up 90 days from July. Then took a break, jumped up, and then finished a little lower at the end of the second 90 days. The short term box mid-point is around March 12th.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SO...0460&listNum=2
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Old Feb 16, 2007, 9:32pm   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ammo
i believe the boys showed their hand last nite offering 6200 es at 1460 at about 2:58 on the close ,they usually show no more than 3500 on the bid or offer,maybe at 2 pm the will try to unwind their longs
i see the volume rising in th 670 oex feb puts ,that is usually a tip that they will go out lower which means a rally into the close,was wrong on previous post
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Old Feb 16, 2007, 9:41pm   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ajaskey
Here is the shorter term. The SOX ran up 90 days from July. Then took a break, jumped up, and then finished a little lower at the end of the second 90 days. The short term box mid-point is around March 12th.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SO...0460&listNum=2
looks like the first 2 parts of head and shoulders
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Old Feb 18, 2007, 7:38pm   #25
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xpertstocktrader started this thread Market commentary for 02/20/2007

Good day!
We had a typical options expiration day. A whippy day with action that was not worth trading. Friday was a very high risk market with perhaps scalp trade possibilities. I found a number of interesting charts but there wasn't any momentum after the setup and they moved back to their consolidation areas. I believe that one of most important aspects to be successful trader is to recognize risk. Capital preservation is important and Friday was day to do something else.
I expect to see more action today. The charts are telling us the bulls are in favor and they look like they want break above daily/weekly resistances. For now only the SPY has the room until the daily equal move resistance area (blue line). The QQQQ coming to the weekly previous high resistance and DIA still have problems with daily channel resistance. Also, DIA finished under 20sma 60 min resistance area. If we look in the past this isnít first try for DIA and QQQQ to break above resistance lines. The last time they attempted to move forward they finished with a reversal and came back into the range/channel support area. This isnít a reason to be pessimistic but it is enough reason to be careful. For a possible breakout on the daily/weekly charts I would like to see a stronger pace and heavier volume. That would be a healthy breakout.
Our open positions continue to do well and my bias for next week is on the long side but with caution for the reasons mentioned above. Generally that means: The DIA break above daily/weekly channel, the QQQQ 20sma weekly bounce and the SPY weekly continuation (10sma hold very nice for now).
Good luck trading today!!!!

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...qqqqweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...202007qqqq.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...2007qqqq60.jpg

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...7spyweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...2202007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...02007spy60.jpg

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...7diaweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...2202007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...02007dia60.jpg

Ivica
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Old Feb 22, 2007, 12:20pm   #26
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xpertstocktrader started this thread Market commentary for 02/22/2007

Good day!
I guess this week the QQQQ's will show some strength and the DIA will be the weak index. The SPY is in the middle, but on the daily and weekly charts it looks the best for the long side. We saw a very whippy day that brought us high risk trading. After the morning gap down and whippy start the QQQQ first filled the gap. The SPY for most of the morning had problems with 200sma 5 min resistance area. The DIA was the weakest index and after morning gap to the previous day low support area the rest of the day it tried to fill the gap, but the 20sma 60 min yesterday was to strong for that and finished day in negative territory under the 60 min resistance. On the 60 min chart we can see that DIA starting to have rounding highs and forming cup pattern. On the daily chart consolidations at highs and channel resistance slowly losing the battle. Blue lines showing action in the past and very easily we could see the same in the coming days. For the DIA 60 min support area (today and yesterday lows) are very important. On the other side, the QQQQ buying pace isnít strong and with intraday whippy action look like to go to the previous daily resistance area (45.40 areas). That kind of action is not giving me faith for the swing move up to new highs. We have a situation when DIA is losing steam with rounding highs, the QQQQ buying pace is slow and without strong volume and SPY staying in the 60 min consolidation and finished day in negative area. Right now we donít have a short setup and the action explained above does not give me any faith to the long side. Being conservative the reasons given above are enough for me to stay in a caution mode for today.
I will continue to monitor the market after the open. I will wait for a healthy intraday breakout in any direction and then after consolidation I will look for a continuation. I will miss first move but I will take the continuation and that way I will try to protect myself from any false breakouts.
Swing traders still have harder time for new setups right now and it is best to stay with open positions and follow the action. If open positions are doing well you can always add. Right now I will take swing possibility only with small risk. Safest side is with intraday moves and faster trades and those who are not good with that (like me) need to use patience until market will show us direction.
Good luck trading today!!!!

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...222007qqqq.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...2007qqqq60.jpg

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...2222007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...22007spy60.jpg

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...2222007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...22007dia60.jpg

I am always available via email and in the trading room if you have any questions.
Ivica Juracic
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Old Feb 23, 2007, 12:13am   #27
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ajaskey
Here is the shorter term. The SOX ran up 90 days from July. Then took a break, jumped up, and then finished a little lower at the end of the second 90 days. The short term box mid-point is around March 12th.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SO...0460&listNum=2
The IT SOX did take off at the 3/4 time line so this makes sense on one time frame. I still think we consolidate until around March 9th, but today's impulsive move does provide an indication of the trend.
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Old Feb 23, 2007, 11:24am   #28
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xpertstocktrader started this thread Market commentary for 02/23/2007

Good day!
Not much to write about yesterday. A weak gap up in the QQQQ to the daily/weekly previous high resistance area (45.40), the SPY new daily high and small DIA gap up. Unfortunately, there wasn't any follow through to bring the indices to new highs. The DIA weakness took control of the market and after morning consolidation, we saw an intraday move down. The rest of day, we saw whippy action without any direction. The DIA weakness stalled at the daily channel low support area (also 20sma daily support area). On the daily DIA chart history repeated and after few consolidation days (blue line on the daily chart) we saw a pullback. The SPY after morning gap up went back to the 60 min consolidation area and stayed there for the rest of day (under 20sma 60 min) while the QQQQ tried to go back morning highs. We ended up seeing another whippy day without clear direction. The QQQQ buying pace is still poor without any real volume. The SPY closed neutral and DIA is back to its support area. Maybe we will see the DIA bounce today from the daily support area and maybe that will provide enough steam for QQQQ and SPY. Perhaps we will see some continuation selling of the DIA. I do think that we donít have a clear signal right now and my bias is neutral. That means I will stay with the same tactic that I have been using the last several days.
I will follow market action and then I will see. It is most important to trade light without full risk and reduce your number of trades. If I see some nice long trades I will start with small lots and if we see the market breakup then I will add to my positions.
Remember today is Friday so don't expect much after the market opening action.
Good luck trading today!!!!

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...232007qqqq.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...2007qqqq60.jpg

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...2232007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...32007spy60.jpg

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...2232007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...32007dia60.jpg

Ivica Juracic
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Old Feb 26, 2007, 3:09pm   #29
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xpertstocktrader started this thread Market commentary for 02/26/2007

Good day!

Friday started with selling right at the open. Most of the day brought range action which brought higher risk. Indices finished Fridayís action in the negative area with the DIA being the weakest. Selling pace was not strong and after slightly new low the rest of the day daily the channel support line held and we saw consolidation action.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...7diaweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...2262007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...62007dia60.jpg

The SPY made slightly lower low too, and daily 20sma support area held very well. We didnít see much of change from day before. Also on the 60 min chart we can see that consolidation area is holding for now.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...7spyweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...2262007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...62007spy60.jpg

The QQQQ was strongest index again and Thursday lows held very well. All day the QQQQ stayed in range action and above 20sma 60 min support line (blue line). On the daily chart we still have double top pattern possibility and without daily consolidation every breakup will be high risk for a daily breakout.


http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...qqqqweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...262007qqqq.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...2007qqqq60.jpg

We are entering this week without a clear direction and the weekly charts signals are mixed. The QQQQ is strongest but still in dangerous of a double top resistance. The SPY made doji bar which is telling us that we can see a move in either direction. If the SPY breaks up it has room for a larger gain but if it breaks down it will bring us to several daily/weekly support areas.

If we look at DIA daily chart we can see that last several times the channel line held very nice and if we count on past activity then we can expect a bounce at the start of this week. That is one scenario that we can get and in that case, the DIA could help the other Indices to break up on new weekly highs which will be signal for the bulls. Another possibility is this time the DIA channel support area doesn't hold and that could be the trigger for the bears and a swing move down possibility. Perhaps even strong enough for a longer correction. From a technical analyst viewpoint we have the same % for both scenarios. Right now we are in the middle of those possibilities and overall risk will remain higher until market decides what to do. I like the weekly chart of the SPY and QQQQ for long direction, but after several months of an uptrend to see a low risk setup we need to see a longer direction. That is for a low risk setup and market the doesnít care about that. From the market action we can decide what risk we want to use in this situation. Right now we are in high risk market and for new swing setups and the best risk now is going with intraday moves. For swing traders we have several ways how to trade this market. One is to wait and manage open swing positions and until market shows us direction we must wait in cash. Another way I use is to take new swing trades with smaller risk and only after the market shows its direction I add to my positions.

I donít have strong bias for today for the reasons explained above. I think that we have same chance for a move in either direction. I will just follow the market action and I will limit my risk for new setups.

It is also important is to cut the number of trades, because right now there is a high risk of overtrading.
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Old Feb 27, 2007, 1:34am   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ajaskey
Here is the shorter term. The SOX ran up 90 days from July. Then took a break, jumped up, and then finished a little lower at the end of the second 90 days. The short term box mid-point is around March 12th.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SO...0460&listNum=2
andy your thoughts,still lookin for pop in early march
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