US market commentary

This is a discussion on US market commentary within the Indices forums, part of the Markets category; Market commentary for 02/14/2007 Good day! History does repeat. Just look at the market and that is what we got. ...

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Old Feb 14, 2007, 11:05am   #11
Joined May 2006
xpertstocktrader started this thread Market commentary for 02/14/2007

Good day!
History does repeat. Just look at the market and that is what we got. After Fridayís strong move down and Mondayís consolidation yesterday we saw a reversal. Today started with a gap up and we saw exactly the action that I expected during the morning. Unfortunately, the rest of the day I was on the wrong side of market. The major reason was I didn't expect the morning continuation. The QQQQ was the weakest index while the SPY and the DIA made nice recovery and back again above daily 20sma area. The DIA daily channel support line held again and we are back in the middle of daily range. Since Fridayís selling was strong, I will not expect the DIA or the SPY will see new daily highs anytime soon. Especially since the QQQQ still remains under the daily 10/20/50sma resistance areas. But that action could bring divergence which is the same as we had yesterday. Until the QQQQ or technology sees some strength we can continue to see the SPY and DIA outperform the QQQQ.
This is the reason I expect high risk, whippy trading action today and until the market decides what direction it will take I will trade with small risk and number of my trades will be less than usual.
I donít have strong bias for the morning, earning news can gap the market in the morning, and I think that market can flip around without revealing its daily direction. I will wait to see market does at the open and monitor its breath and then I will go with the market action. Risk for swing traders will remain high and it is best is to start will a small position and then add if trade improves.
Good luck trading today!!!!

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...142007qqqq.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...2007qqqq60.jpg

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...2142007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...42007spy60.jpg

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...2142007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...42007dia60.jpg
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Old Feb 15, 2007, 2:19pm   #12
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xpertstocktrader started this thread Market commentary for 02/15/2007

Good day!
From a short term bearish bias to a short term bullish bias in few days. That pretty much explains the market action this week. The FED chairman says things are ok and that gives everyone the ok to buy. Don't you wish it was that easy?? After the gap up in the morning we saw a continued strong move up the rest of the day. The previous daily high and range area stopped yesterdays QQQQ action. The DIA again stopped at daily channel resistance while the SPY made new weekly high. All these reasons are telling us that we can be more on the bullish side right now. We still don't have a low risk swing setup pattern I will stay in the same mode about risk. Looking at the 60 min charts I will like to see consolidations first and then possible continuations. That is what why I will wait for a longer time. On the 60 min charts we saw two buying waves and we still have room for another move up. This without rest will increase risk because of past action. In the morning I will wait to see the market action and I will follow it. This is the same as I have done the last several weeks.
Individual names we have traded are going well for now in both directions. Risk for swing traders remain higher and I will stick with intraday moves. Longer term the Indices can break up from weekly consolidations and the action today can help us to achieve that. Best is to stay with strongest names for long side and weakest names for short side which is exactly what I do all the time.
I will go over the gainers lists to see if there will be some traps and bigger gaps for intraday action.
Good luck trading today!!!!

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...152007qqqq.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...2007qqqq60.jpg

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...2152007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...52007spy60.jpg

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...2152007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...52007dia60.jpg
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Old Feb 16, 2007, 2:06am   #13
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DWL
The FED chairman says things are ok and that gives everyone the ok to buy. Don't you wish it was that easy??
Gee... I listened to him and I didn't hear him say anything about whether I should buy or sell. Do you subscribe to his for-pay newsletter?
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Old Feb 16, 2007, 10:34am   #14
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xpertstocktrader started this thread Well, I don't know how you understand Ben Bemanke speech, but when he talks about easing inflation for me that is good sign for bulls and in my opinion we saw that reaction. Maybe I understand something wrong, who know, but still think that his speech helped market to staying strong.

Ivica
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Old Feb 16, 2007, 1:04pm   #15
 
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Bernanke learnt his lesson when he first came into the job...an off cuff quip to a journalist got out & the markets tanked....highly embarrassing.

Now he chooses his wording very VERY carefully ....& now splurts out typical FED speak, ie don't say too much new (& if you do counteract it with a "however if..."), change the odd word here & there, let the markets react how they want to react, but don't, repeat DON'T be the one who was so clear & lucid with his statement that any major market reaction can be attributed to what you said!

We're talking about central bankers after all!
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Old Feb 16, 2007, 1:54pm   #16
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xpertstocktrader started this thread My apologies if someone understand wrong. I'm not lucid one, or smartest trader. In my commentary, I just told how market reacted and I'm just trader who follows market action. However, definitely we can say that market liked his speech, no matter how we understand it, reaction is up and that is what I follow. I'm TA trader and charts are my tools, but again, my opinion is that market like his speech and market reacted with strong intraday move up. Definitely, I'm not reason for that reaction. Here I just try to bring my expectations for the market possibilities for the next day and near future from charts view, nothing else.
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Ivica
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Old Feb 16, 2007, 1:58pm   #17
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xpertstocktrader started this thread Market commentary for 02/16/2007

Good day!
We got a narrow range day which I was hoping for. Unfortunately not exactly the type of NR day we wanted to see. For a continuation pattern we need to see consolidations at the highs but we donít want see a new high. That is what happened yesterday. The consolidation we saw yesterday had aslightly higher high and the continuation of previous resistance areas that eventually stopped yesterday activity. For the QQQQ that is upper daily range resistance area, the SPY number resistance area (146.00) and for the DIA the daily channel resistance line. Without a healthy consolidation which we did not see and today being options expiration I expect to see whippy intraday action today. Most option expiration days are whippy which add to risk. Iím a conservative trader and when I see a high risk market my activity slows down. It wouldn't be unusual for me not to take any trades today. The way to trade a whippy market is to use smaller lots and a larger stop amount. That way you will avoid false moves and fast reversals. In a whippy market you can see a trading pattern that can stop you out by just a couple of cents and then a fast reversal to new highs/lows. Being less active is also good on whippy days because overtrading is a trap most inexperienced traders fall. Another point in a whippy market is for the trader to be fast with exits to assure profits since it is logical not to expect the same risk/reward as usual.
I donít have strong bias for the morning so I will wait open and I will follow market action.
Good luck trading today!!!!

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...162007qqqq.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...2007qqqq60.jpg

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...2162007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...62007spy60.jpg

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...2162007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/...62007dia60.jpg

Ivica Juracic
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Old Feb 16, 2007, 5:04pm   #18
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DWL
Well, I don't know how you understand Ben Bemanke speech, but when he talks about easing inflation for me that is good sign for bulls and in my opinion we saw that reaction. Maybe I understand something wrong, who know, but still think that his speech helped market to staying strong.

Ivica
I think you got what Bernanke said correct. But that doesn't translate into buying/selling equities. If the market anticipated this news then maybe stocks have already moved. If the market has still not accepted this (and it turns out to be true) then the markets will go up.

I expect the markets to go up, but one cannot draw a direct relationship of the future economy direction and magnitude with the future market direction and magnitude. Sometimes the market moves early and sometimes it moves late.
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Old Feb 16, 2007, 6:20pm   #19
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Originally Posted by ajaskey
I think you got what Bernanke said correct. But that doesn't translate into buying/selling equities. If the market anticipated this news then maybe stocks have already moved. If the market has still not accepted this (and it turns out to be true) then the markets will go up.

I expect the markets to go up, but one cannot draw a direct relationship of the future economy direction and magnitude with the future market direction and magnitude. Sometimes the market moves early and sometimes it moves late.
andy,are you still looking for a swing up first part of march?
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Old Feb 16, 2007, 7:39pm   #20
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ammo
andy,are you still looking for a swing up first part of march?
I was looking for a blow-off starting in late January. Since we are at mid-February now, I am leaning toward more basing until around March 9th. Even though the "market" is making new highs, the COMPQ and SOX are lagging. I think they both will move up strong when the SOX hits the next time line.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SO...80395635&r=110
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Last edited by ajaskey; Feb 16, 2007 at 9:11pm.
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