S&P 500 cash weekly competition for 2017 with PRIZES!

This is a discussion on S&P 500 cash weekly competition for 2017 with PRIZES! within the Indices forums, part of the Markets category; Gold winner's write-up: All winning streaks must come to an end, will this be the week? Who knows! However, I ...

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Old Oct 30, 2017, 4:56pm   #1369
Joined May 2016
Gold winner's write-up:

All winning streaks must come to an end, will this be the week? Who knows! However, I will reveal some of my method to forecasting the market, whether it makes any difference to anything is another matter.

I currently spend approx 10 minutes a week on analysis for the S&P500, no charts needed, no drawing lines, no searching for traditional patterns, no support or resistance, no MAs, crossovers or anything of the like, in fact I believe all traditional TA is pure BS and it's failed for me in the past, so I don't use it.

I don't use fundamentals either, or politics, or economic reports, I have no noise because I don't read/listen to it and if I accidentally pick up on it then I just chuckle and ignore it. I am also of the opinion that trading Forex is a mugs game, equities is where there is potential to profit in trading be that shares/ETFs/Indexes etc.

I rely on a single report written by someone whom I believe to be accomplished in the world of mathematics and probabilities with a long history of trading professionally, I also believe this person is relatively undiscovered/ignored, which is an advantage for finding and maintaining an edge before it is arbitraged out. Whilst the report does not make a forecast it does provide a probability score based on historical price action. The probability analysis uses machine learning - quant trading if you will.

The regime of the markets has been mean reversion for some time now, so if and until the regime changes to momentum, my forecasts will be based on that. Identifying regime change is another challenge.

Sooner or later I'll be investing some time in using machine learning to analyse price action to determine any patterns that have a robust edge. I have only been following the concepts for about a year now, so I'm new to it, I find the subject a challenge, I am not a natural mathematician, but I understand concepts and know how to integrate ideas, I'll leave the complexity to the software developer and will just take the software output to develop trading systems.

Twitter is important for following those in the field and generating ideas, although you need a fake news filter on twitter, that is easily achieved by unfollowing anyone as soon as they mention traditional TA

Good luck all

PS - now I've said all that, I am fully expecting a losing streak to begin!

Last edited by Signalcalc; Oct 30, 2017 at 5:05pm.
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Old Oct 31, 2017, 9:36am   #1370
 
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Despite ALL evidence to the contrary, most people think the market will go down this week.

Only 2 people sticking their necks out for an up week, 8 saying down (you cant fix stupid, I say that having forecast down).

May the trend be with you!
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Old Nov 3, 2017, 10:46am   #1371
 
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SP500 Correction Is Imminent

Hi,

In my February post I noted that stocks were not overvalued at the time and that there was still room for some more upside. However, as of Oct 2017 end of month, with a confluence of two very important (technical) events, that is no longer the case, at least not from the technical perspective.

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Old Nov 3, 2017, 3:42pm   #1372
 
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Hi,

In my February post I noted that stocks were not overvalued at the time and that there was still room for some more upside. However, as of Oct 2017 end of month, with a confluence of two very important (technical) events, that is no longer the case, at least not from the technical perspective.
"SP500 Correction Is Imminent"

Been hearing that for 7 years now!
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Old Nov 3, 2017, 4:37pm   #1373
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by postman View Post
"SP500 Correction Is Imminent"

Been hearing that for 7 years now!

I wrote this at the beginning of the yea

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Originally Posted by lexcorp View Post
The old girl just keeps going up!

Interestingly, over the last few months, certain family members and friends have discovered the stock market, opened trading accounts, and are making rather good money! They just see the market as 'a thing that always goes up'. They've been buying stocks and longing the indexes (dax, spx etc) and are loving it! Some of them know that i've been trading for a while and simply can't understand why I'm not a multi-billionnaire! (''It's SO SO easy!!!!'')
If I told them it sometimes goes down they wouldn't believe me. If I told them at times i've actually 'gone short' (and maybe lost money on them shorts), they'd look at me like i'm on fire.

I'm no expert and so don't like to really give advice to them, but it certainly feels a bit like a bubble when your auntie's dog walker (she's pretty hot. Ass like an onion......makes you wanna cry. Know what I mean?) who only learnt that the market existed last month has put all her savings into her leveraged trading account and is so far making a fair bit of money by just buying the FTSE and the Dow each morning when she wakes up

Having said that, technically, it all looks rather good, I guess.

Similar chart to the one from my last gold medal from me. kind of expecting all 3 circles to be hit soonish. I don't know in what order!

Will reserve my guess for now, but i'll likely be looking for yet more upside for my weekly forecast....Almost hope i'm wrong since it's actually getting kind of boring to watch it jst grind up!
Anyway, needless to say she no longer walks dogs for a living and has made rather a lot of money on the market which is now her 'job' since she's made more than she ever believed she would using her 'buy every time there is a small dip' strategy (basically what i've been doing for the last 3 years or so since I realised that it's not a 'real' market like other markets, although I don't trade as 'agressively' as her)
Will she get rich?
Probably! lol
I love it
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Old Nov 4, 2017, 1:13pm   #1374
 
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If you always do what you've always done, you will always get what you've always got

Signalcalc this is just NOT the British way, we all love the underdog and showoffs may be rich but ... Anyway I hope you feel suitably ashamed for flouting your superiority in this way.

Well done to Mike too, (you see at least he has the decency to come second, keep that stiff upper lip old chap!).

Results below as if it were in any doubt.
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Old Nov 4, 2017, 1:15pm   #1375
 
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Trading monkeys worshipping at the alter of 'signalcalc'
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Old Nov 4, 2017, 6:53pm   #1376
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Trading monkeys worshipping at the alter of 'signalcalc'
Me Tarzan, lord of the Apes

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