Confidence in trading results being enough to make a living

On a scale of 1-10, how confident are you about your ability to make make ongoing consistent profits from trading that are sufficient to make a living and pay your mortgage, bills etc.

1 is lowest level of confidence. 10 is the highest level of confidence.

6.18.

EDIT: the poll wasnt available when I posted my answer.

2.71828183

I didn't see a reason to fill in the other 7 fields, but you get the idea....answer selecting the number that means something to you - ignore my 3 example reasons if you like.

I voted 3, but was torn between 3 & 4.

This is because i know that my methods are pretty damn good, compared to any that i have seen (thats why i use them). Yet they are still by no means perfect, sometimes fail, suffer periods of drawdown etc. and this is if i follow my rules correctly, maintain full concentration,don't make any mistakes and do not get screwed by the brokers, or suffer technical problems etc.
All in all, trading still feels pretty fragile. But so does going to an office every day, sharing the company of a bunch of sometimes frustrated, competitive, bitchy and unpleasant people, knowing that you are a few mistakes away from the sack.

I'm going to assume you'd like to know which number we each selected and why. (If not feel free to ignore this post or ask me to delete it.)

I selected 1. I honestly feel lucky each day I make a profit and expect each profitable day to be my last. This sort of thinking keeps me focused squarely on risk management, which is where I think my focus belongs. I have noticed that when traders start feeling too confident the risk they accept starts to creep up until the inevitable occurs.

jj

JTrader said:

I voted 3, but was torn between 3 & 4.

This is because i know that my methods are pretty damn good, compared to any that i have seen. Yet they are still by no means perfect, sometimes fail, suffer periods of drawdown etc. and this is if i follow my rules correctly, maintain full concentration,don't make any mistakes and do not get screwed by the brokers, or suffer technical problems etc.
All in all, trading still feels pretty fragile. But so does going to an office every day, sharing the company of a bunch of sometimes frustrated, competitive, bitchy and unpleasant people.

Click to expand...

Very well said.

jj

Mathemagician said:

I'm going to assume you'd like to know which number we each selected and why. (If not feel free to ignore this post or ask me to delete it.)

jj

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Comments are more than welcome, and tell us a lot more than an anonymous tick in a box. But comments are not compulsory of course.
.

Pretty positive bunch here which is good.

We don't want this here do we...

As a contrary view to those expressed so far, I voted for 8, meaning that yes, I have confidence in my trading system/methodology and my ability to execute it for a gain, so long as I remain disciplined and focused, but recognising that it isn't perfect and has some weaknesses, as do I.

Struggling again with this intraday ****!

Its not the strats i have it's me, and YES - a bit of bad luck.

Today has been typical - missed 4 valid signals that made pips, made 1 trade that lost. If thats not sods law, i'd love to know what is! This is typical of what happens to any trade signals that i miss - they make pips, the end result is rarely me avoiding a loss.

Reasons for missing the trades are lack of concentration like a robot on the chart. I am not a robot. Also using an indicator that needs an audio alarm but hasn't got one yet.

As i have said before this sub H1 screenwatching pip chasing is very demanding, and while it should be working, it is not, as i am not a f***ing robot.

Still, at least my strat works. It's a shame i am presently incompetent.

Basically, to make this sub-h1 work, i have to sit here like a dormant machine, not look at any websites, and concentrate on the chart only - for 8 hours most of the time. How boring is that!

Maybe its time to have the partial labotomy needed :idea:.
Else time to move up to the higher time-frame, that demands a fraction of the time & attention.

bbmac said:

...but recognising that it isn't perfect...

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Think that's just trading isn't it, losing trades are a just a cost of doing business.

If you're trading a system with an edge / positive expectancy, you are still doing everything right even when one or a string of your trades end up as losses, just like a casino or an insurance company are still doing everything right when they have to make the odd payouts to customers.

JTrader said:

Struggling again with this intraday ****!
Else time to move up to the higher time-frame, that demands a fraction of the time & attention.

Click to expand...

Turning 40 next year, I'm firmly of the belief that anything below 1hr is most decidedly only for young vegetables, not people entering an age like Bond and us.

Ahem.

;-)

PS, I also believe that to be net profitable it's easiest to capture as much as possible of the odd range expansion days, and the longer your time frame, the more you'll capture.

blackcab said:

2.71828183

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The magic of e

"Whether you believe you can or you believe you can't, you are right" - Henry Ford.

With that in mind I voted 10. IMHO there is no point in believing anything else, to do so is simply setting oneself up for failure.

Cheers,
PKFFW

10, figure there is always a way to extract something from the masses