Doubt?

Does every profitable trader really go through phase where they doubt themselves and their trading method/system even if they know the method/system works? I am asking this because I am at this point and don't know how to get passed it.

What's worse is that this is the first month that I traded my plan religiously!
I hope someone can give me advice from their personal experience.

I did.

Stick with your plan. All that is happening is that some subconcious stuff is kicking in which normal life is quite useful and makes us human, but in trading is the reason people tend to fail.

If it helps write down what you're feeling and why. Bringing it from your subconcious to your concious will help manage your feelings.

Read some stuff on trading psychology from the sub-forum on this site.

What you are experiencing is perfectly normal. Just don't give into it.

£80 said:

What's worse is that this is the first month that I traded my plan religiously!

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Was this month profitable?

£80,..A little trick I used to adjust my behavior towards the feelings of doubt, was to reverse my thinking,.e.g, I used to hope for a loss every trade,..also when my profit target was almost reached I used to think of it like a stop loss,..simple, ..but effective!
Of course this was after I'd developed a winning system,..
Behavior has to be trained through repetition.
Once the habit has been instilled, it's as hard to doubt as it was not to.

while at school I ve been told that to build habit fundamentals you must repeat al least 17 times

Thanks for the reply. This month was profitable but right now it is not, I am down by 11%. I have had 4 consecutive losing trades since last week Thursday. Right now I am in a winner(short EUR/JPY at 126.79) but my emotions is getting to me.

£80 said:

Thanks for the reply. This month was profitable but right now it is not, I am down by 11%. I have had 4 consecutive losing trades since last week Thursday. Right now I am in a winner(short EUR/JPY at 126.79) but my emotions is getting to me.

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Well then if you have enough, give me your money, I ll trade it, I have no problems with emotions

On a serious note, I think it could be the belief system. I tend to do well while I am under the massive pressure, then I am starting taking it easy. But its all a learning curve I guess.

£80 said:

Thanks for the reply. This month was profitable but right now it is not, I am down by 11%. I have had 4 consecutive losing trades since last week Thursday. Right now I am in a winner(short EUR/JPY at 126.79) but my emotions is getting to me.

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I wouldn't be comfortable having a draw down of 11% from only 4 trades. I know that's 'only' 2.7% risk per trade but if your hit rate is not that high then confidence can be knocked by the large(ish) draw downs. Why not cut you size by half and see how you do?

If you haven't already (and you should have) write down your plan in bullet points. Under each bullet point outline why that part of the plan is included and how it helps to bring you your edge. After you have entered every trade read through the plan. It could help execute the plan and this might give you more confidence to continue.

maybe take a leaf out of this guy's book http://www.trade2win.com/boards/general-trading-chat/86048-visible-pnl.html and try to stop thinking in terms of "winning and losing"

good trading

jon

£80 said:

Does every profitable trader really go through phase where they doubt themselves and their trading method/system even if they know the method/system works? I am asking this because I am at this point and don't know how to get passed it.

What's worse is that this is the first month that I traded my plan religiously!
I hope someone can give me advice from their personal experience.

Click to expand...

OK, 3 things you must trust; yourself, your trading plan and your platform...Don't beat yourself up if your not feeling entirely confident on one or all three, or you havn't got all three sorted, you are still very raw to all of this. Practice doesn't make perfect it makes permanent.

So, why not drop down your amount per pip, perhaps to pence as opposed to pounds, until you feel you can (just) take a trade without feeling jittery? Also (and this is IMHO) if you've taken only 4 trades since last Thursday it's not enough early days. With that kind of habit of trading you presumably only take on average a trade a day, presumably on quite a long TF; daily or at least 4hr which requires quite a big stop in order to stay in the trade...that can be a killer right there; you're miles away from being proficient and developing unconscious ability given each trade will 'feel' too precious and in your mind have too much riding on each one you take.

If I'm in 7-9 pairs (on 1-2hr TFs) I might still play with cable/GBP/JPY on a 3 min TF with smaller stakes. The stop will only be 30 but ('ickle spikes not withstanding) if the trade goes against me I only average a 10-15 pip loss, but often the taking the reverse position pulls back the loss and I have to do it that quickly I have no time to think I just do...it's become a good habit which you are miles away from creating for yourself on a trade a day..

i can't help but wonder if these feelings have been brought on by the ambitous goal you set yourself and an increase in size traded?

Vaco (formerly Elefteros) said:

i can't help but wonder if these feelings have been brought on by the ambitous goal you set yourself and an increase in size traded?

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I have set an ambitious goal for myself to motivate and force me to trade more religiously but I have not increased my risk it is still set at 3% per trade.

£80 said:

I have set an ambitious goal for myself to motivate and force me to trade more religiously but I have not increased my risk it is still set at 3% per trade.

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But is it the first time you are risking 3% on this sum of cash?

Also whats your R:R, how many winning trades will it take to make back what you have lost.

BTW - i'm not trying to have a dig at you i'm trying to get you to question why you feel the way you do, what is it that is different now to before, I imagine you have had 3-4 losing trades in a row before?

Vaco (formerly Elefteros) said:

But is it the first time you are risking 3% on this sum of cash?

Also whats your R:R, how many winning trades will it take to make back what you have lost.

BTW - i'm not trying to have a dig at you i'm trying to get you to question why you feel the way you do, what is it that is different now to before, I imagine you have had 3-4 losing trades in a row before?

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Yes I have had 3-4 losing trades in a row before but that was about 5-6 months ago. I have always risked 3% on this account with a minimum of 1:1 risk reward but when I get into a trade my aim is 1:2 upward.

I don't mind if anyone has a dig at me as long as what they say makes sense and helps me to achieve a positive outcome. I prefer people to be straight with me and not sugar coat what they are trying to get across to me.

It sounds to me like the best thing to do is decrease your size slightly, and carry on with the plan. Don't look at decreasing your size as a backwards step, just look at it as a way to help you overcome emotions in the short term.

Rossini said:

It sounds to me like the best thing to do is decrease your size slightly, and carry on with the plan. Don't look at decreasing your size as a backwards step, just look at it as a way to help you overcome emotions in the short term.

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you are very right at saying this because I have looked at decreasing my size as a step backwards. In my mind if I do this I will not reach my goal but I think Black Swan is right I need more early days to take more trades

£80 said:

Thanks for the reply. This month was profitable but right now it is not, I am down by 11%. I have had 4 consecutive losing trades since last week Thursday. Right now I am in a winner(short EUR/JPY at 126.79) but my emotions is getting to me.

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Sorry, I mis-read or misunderstood you to have had a complete month of trading your plan.

EUR/JPY - good trade, especially if you happen to have been in it since around 11th Jan by any chance? Right now, JPY is one of the strongest currencies, probably due to risk-aversion - seems to alternate/compete with USD in this respect.

I seem to remember that you were trading in a style similar to TD's MMT/PS threads....?

If so, that would explain why you are taking relatively few trades on relatively long timescales. If you find that suits you, I should stick to it - for the time being anyway.


That is the way I was always going to trade, but it seems I need a little more action (which is not necessarily a good thing....).


EDIT: Oops, I see you gave an entry for that trade - sorry, missed it before. Just today then, presumably.
Still a good trade

£80 said:

Thanks for the reply. This month was profitable but right now it is not, I am down by 11%. I have had 4 consecutive losing trades since last week Thursday. Right now I am in a winner(short EUR/JPY at 126.79) but my emotions is getting to me.

Click to expand...

If losses are hurting too much, you are either trading too large a % risked, you are not completely confident in your system, or it's a mixture of both. From my personal experiece, only realtime paper trading, or proven profitability on tiny stakes for at least a couple months can give you the necessary confidence for 4 losers in a row not to bother you, and most importantly for you to keep taking your trades.