Check out my last 4 months stats!

Stern-Capital · Jan 15, 2009

Hi Everyone! How are you doing today?
So here are my last 4 months stats,

* Taken from Forex Managed Accounts By Stern Capital Group

So in 4 months having over 700% in compounded earnings, thats pretty good I guess,
Not to mention we are up by 18.59% since 01/01/2009

Have an awesome day and best of luck during 2009!!! :smart:

dcraig1 · Jan 15, 2009

The 52% drawdown certainly is impressive!

Stern-Capital · Jan 15, 2009

dcraig1 said:
The 52% drawdown certainly is impressive!

First of all, we don't want to hide anything from our customers.

Now, this stats is taken to a trade by trade that means, we have more then one open position at the time, the overall position on the market was positive, and so does each and every month since 1st Sep. when we started offering our services to the public.

Have an awesome day! :smart:

Hotch · Jan 15, 2009

This doesn't look very impressive actually. Sorry to say!

I might be missing something, but it would appear you've been lucky. With a 66% win rate, and your average winner being larger then your average loser, it looks like in the long run you're going to blow the account.

Again, I am probably mistaken, I remember there was a simulator for this stuff online for free somewhere. Maybe someone remembers it because it was great. Calculated expectancy from win% and size of win compared to loss etc.

dcraig1 · Jan 15, 2009

Stern-Capital said:
First of all, we don't want to hide anything from our customers.

Now, this stats is taken to a trade by trade that means, we have more then one open position at the time, the overall position on the market was positive, and so does each and every month since 1st Sep. when we started offering our services to the public.

Have an awesome day! :smart:

What does all that mean? Did the account have a 52% drawdown or not ?

porph · Jan 15, 2009

Hotch said:
This doesn't look very impressive actually. Sorry to say!

I might be missing something, but it would appear you've been lucky. With a 66% win rate, and your average winner being larger then your average loser, it looks like in the long run you're going to blow the account.

Eh? - Win % above 50 and winners greater than losers? Sounds ok to me.

Rossini · Jan 15, 2009

I remember that and would like to know the link if anyone has it?

KillPhil08 · Jan 15, 2009

Imagine two max downdraws in a row.

dcraig1 · Jan 15, 2009

porph said:
Eh? - Win % above 50 and winners greater than losers? Sounds ok to me.

Not necessarily. If your leverage is too big you can easily be destroyed by a run of losers. I suspect that some sort of monte carlo analysis would show a very significant probability of drawdown well in excess of 50%. Not to mention black swans.

Not to be cynical, but I imagine that the terms of many of these managed forex accounts are something like 20% of profits to the manager. All losses borne by the customer. Its like a free option and bound to promote risky trading.

porph · Jan 15, 2009

dcraig1 said:
Not necessarily. If your leverage is too big you can easily be destroyed by a run of losers. I suspect that some sort of monte carlo analysis would show a very significant probabiliy of drawdown well in excess of 50%. Not to mention black swans.

Not to be cynical, but I imagine that the terms of many of these managed forex accounts are something like 20% of profits to the manager. All losses borne by the customer. Its like a free option and bound to promote risky trading.

Of course but from a limited set of data, one can only draw a limited conclusion.

Hotch · Jan 15, 2009

I meant losers greater then winners (which is what the data shows), sorry, was a bit hesitant typing it.

Sorry for confusion.

Joey25 · Jan 15, 2009

Hotch said:
I meant losers greater then winners (which is what the data shows), sorry, was a bit hesitant typing it.

Sorry for confusion.

Well spotted. The system expectancy sucks.

Av.win/ Av.loss = .90

Expectancy = (0.66 x .90) - 0.34 = 0.25

The Av.win/Av.loss needs to be more in the order of 1.50 rather than 0.90 to make the system workable (in my opinion)

Stern-Capital · Jan 15, 2009

dcraig1 said:
What does all that mean? Did the account have a 52% drawdown or not ?

If you take it per trade then yes, but overall closed position in the market was a winner. we manage the trades during a trade..

Stern-Capital · Jan 15, 2009

dcraig1 said:
Not necessarily. If your leverage is too big you can easily be destroyed by a run of losers. I suspect that some sort of monte carlo analysis would show a very significant probability of drawdown well in excess of 50%. Not to mention black swans.

Not to be cynical, but I imagine that the terms of many of these managed forex accounts are something like 20% of profits to the manager. All losses borne by the customer. Its like a free option and bound to promote risky trading.

We take performance fee ONLY based on the highest watermark Account size.

If the account has a loss, we don't earn a penny, you need to understand that in order for us to earn, we need to show profits and positive gains!

Stern-Capital · Jan 15, 2009

Joey25 said:
Well spotted. The system expectancy sucks.

Av.win/ Av.loss = .90

Expectancy = (0.66 x .90) - 0.34 = 0.25

The Av.win/Av.loss needs to be more in the order of 1.50 rather than 0.90 to make the system workable (in my opinion)

I really don't understand what you just said, we try only one pair, the GBP/JPY and we master it.

We show a 711.3% compounded over a 4 months period,

Since 01/01/2009 we are up by another 18.59% so far!

:smart:

PualoP · Jan 15, 2009

These figures are a bit fudged aren't they?

You've not included any of your breakeven trades into your stats. If you do:

Total Winners/Total Trades = Win %
217 / 742 = 0.29 %

pedro01 · Jan 15, 2009

Stern-Capital said:
I really don't understand what you just said, we try only one pair, the GBP/JPY and we master it.

We show a 711.3% compounded over a 4 months period,

Since 01/01/2009 we are up by another 18.59% so far!

:smart:

Is your post here to show off or to attract customers ?

As sales pitches go - you may have overshot slightly. This is a tough crowd. I'd have gone for no more than 600% return :whistling

Hoggums · Jan 15, 2009

Largest winner is 137% of account - that just signifies extreme risk to me.

raysor · Jan 15, 2009

I can't believe the application form shows an "OK" for a salary of $0-20000 and a net worth of $500

Stern-Capital · Jan 15, 2009

PualoP said:
These figures are a bit fudged aren't they?

You've not included any of your breakeven trades into your stats. If you do:

Total Winners/Total Trades = Win %
217 / 742 = 0.29 %

Sorry, but total winners 217 and right down to it, total losers 112,

And there is the BE trades : 413...

Look again in it :

Have an awesome day!

Check out my last 4 months stats!

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