Which Stocks to buy for 5-10 yrs hold?

Hi,

I know this is a Trading website , however looking at the current "once in a lifetime"
market scenario, wanted to compile a list of good value US/UK exchange based Stocks to buy with the view of long term hold.

So... if you had a kitty of 50,000 GBP which stocks would you buy and what size?

If you could also give a good reason that will help


Thank You

Banking shares... as safe as houses. No, wait a sec...

I'd be looking at how companies have previously performed during bad times, studying their accounts in detail, researching into the industry. It's like starting again as, like you suggested, it's different to trading.

Cash rich companies... acquisition opportunities will be plentiful in the next 2 years...rewards will come later...and diversify.

chilltrader said:

Hi,

I know this is a Trading website , however looking at the current "once in a lifetime"
market scenario, wanted to compile a list of good value US/UK exchange based Stocks to buy with the view of long term hold.

So... if you had a kitty of 50,000 GBP which stocks would you buy and what size?

If you could also give a good reason that will help


Thank You

Click to expand...

HPQ, AAPL, IBM In technology
C, FFG in financial ( I know ,, I know )
JNJ Health care
WMT Retail


Your Entry should be in next few weeks and not now,, you should look for a technical baseing on INDU or at least a double bottom before you open a position .

UK stocks I have no idea

Grey1

Can't believe a 5-10 year position can be planned on fundamental and technical evidence available on any given date. Which is not to say it hasn't worked in the past, but this has mostly been due to general market uptrends, not analysis.

tomorton said:

Can't believe a 5-10 year position can be planned on fundamental and technical evidence available on any given date. Which is not to say it hasn't worked in the past, but this has mostly been due to general market uptrends, not analysis.

Click to expand...

Always works my friend.. Don't believe it? Look at Mr Buffett who buys when markets have fallen through the floor :idea:

Here's my list... criteria was a mix of dividends and product exclusitivity (and personal liking of products).

-- From UK
GlaxoSmithKline
Topps Tiles
Centrica
ABF
Cadburys
Tesco
Marks & Spencer
United Utilities
British Airways
BT Group
Northumbrian Water
LLoyds Bank
Barclays Bank

-- From US
Yum Brands
Coca Cola
GE
Oracle
Microsoft
Apple

Anything that's old, estaiblished and produces profits and has a good track record of doing so. In other words BORING.

Mcdonalds, BP, whoever makes corn flakes those sorts of stocks.

Anything that deals in money, those stocks are likely to be out of favour for the next few years.

Also, I like the fund managers here, shot to pieces but it's money for old rope and they'll be back, although do your research as some of them might go broke due to clients taking money out, or what's left of it.

Funny joke

Client calls up his broker and says 'hey, what's going on I told you to ONLY buy me large cap stocks, but looking at my portfolio it's stuffed with small cap ones, what's going on'.

The broker replies 'Sir, they WERE all large cap stocks at the beginning of the week'

chilltrader said:

Here's my list... criteria was a mix of dividends and product exclusitivity (and personal liking of products).

-- From UK
GlaxoSmithKline
Topps Tiles
Centrica
ABF
Cadburys
Tesco
Marks & Spencer
United Utilities
British Airways
BT Group
Northumbrian Water
LLoyds Bank
Barclays Bank

-- From US
Yum Brands
Coca Cola
GE
Oracle
Microsoft
Apple

Click to expand...

Some good suggestions above, Chilltrader. TSCO, MKS, LLOY (slightly less attractive now it has aquired HBOS), BARC, BLT, BAY, RDSB/A, SL., are the ones I'm really focused on.

That said, I won't be buying until there is evidence of recovery in the World markets which I think could be as much as a year away. During the dotcom bust, everyone thought 9/11 was the low of the market and a lot of people bought shares only to find the market hadn't made its lows for another year.

anley said:

Funny joke

Client calls up his broker and says 'hey, what's going on I told you to ONLY buy me large cap stocks, but looking at my portfolio it's stuffed with small cap ones, what's going on'.

The broker replies 'Sir, they WERE all large cap stocks at the beginning of the week'

Click to expand...

ROFL awesome



grey1

Don't neglect looking at Aerospace and Defence stocks, also automotive, these companies are sat on large tracts of land, and can (and do) raise cash by flogging off chunks to developers. Defense orders are strong atm, civil A/C and automotive look weak and in the duldrums. I may pile into GKN as soon as the ftse index turns around, the price could be a bargain at present. I'll put a chart up in a mo as busy now.

I have two friends both contacted me this week to say they had bought into financials (hbos, rbs etc..), I told them both not to expect anything back and they were complete punts. I was amazed how one of them went on to tell me how HBOS was over £11 last year and he got in at £1.50, so the upside has to be greater! As we have seen with many financial stocks, the only true bottom in their value is 0.

si1503 said:

I have two friends both contacted me this week to say they had bought into financials (hbos, rbs etc..), I told them both not to expect anything back and they were complete punts. I was amazed how one of them went on to tell me how HBOS was over £11 last year and he got in at £1.50, so the upside has to be greater! As we have seen with many financial stocks, the only true bottom in their value is 0.

Click to expand...

They have a point actually... the worse that can happen going long is the stock turns '0'
in other words Mr Brown gets his grubby paws in the pudding by nationalising the banks.
He's already done haf the deed by "semi-nationalising" them. Someone even had the audacity to report that taxpayers might even "profit" if the bailed out Banks make a profit

Prepare for a tax rise I say! If the G7 ar@h0les promise on "deposit guarantees" then the public is going to have an enormous tax bill across US and Europe.

Buyng for a 10yr time horizon can work, its just that there is no evidence around on any date to allow objective analysis to project perfomance that far ahead, and never has been. So it can be profitable, but it doesn't mater a hoot what stocks you buy as long as they are unlikely to go bust. So the criteria can be whatever you like - say, 5 biggest caps, 5 best dividend payers, 5 with most cash, 5 most beaten down in last 3yrs, 5 beginning with an 'S', 5 with CEOs who don't play golf - it really doesn't make any difference on this date.

tomorton said:

Buyng for a 10yr time horizon can work, its just that there is no evidence around on any date to allow objective analysis to project perfomance that far ahead, and never has been. So it can be profitable, but it doesn't mater a hoot what stocks you buy as long as they are unlikely to go bust. So the criteria can be whatever you like - say, 5 biggest caps, 5 best dividend payers, 5 with most cash, 5 most beaten down in last 3yrs, 5 beginning with an 'S', 5 with CEOs who don't play golf - it really doesn't make any difference on this date.

Click to expand...

I don't agree with that... this random picking of stocks by applying "any" criteria is a recipe for disaster. There is analysis required.. needn't be over the top, but like trading
you need something to target "high probability" setups. CEO's playing golf and stocks starting with 'S' don't fit the bill I'm afraid

chilltrader said:

I don't agree with that... this random picking of stocks by applying "any" criteria is a recipe for disaster. There is analysis required.. needn't be over the top, but like trading
you need something to target "high probability" setups. CEO's playing golf and stocks starting with 'S' don't fit the bill I'm afraid

Click to expand...

Excellent thread, I suppose the swell might well be building in the back of people's minds about how cheap things look. I am sitting on cash also asking myself if this is the right time ???

As for stocks, I think you have to look at where you think the world is headed in the next 3 - 5 years.. I am certain that the "green agenda" will come to the fore especially with construction and energy technology as many new laws are coming into force about building Zero Carbon homes (in the UK).

I would also be interested in commodity stocks perhaps in a year or so from now as I dont believe the long term story is over just yet as China / india / middle east continue to grow and resources become increasingly short.

Plus some defensive's

Tesco
British American Tabacco
Astra Zeneca

I have already taken a punt on Barclays I think they will survive, and the Lehmans purchase was also a canny bit of business.

High risk punts that I am considering with a 5 year view

Southern area / London UK house builders
Russia
Index ETF's
Carbon Trading
Africa

But who knows eh ??? It is really punting... but I suppose if you hang on long enough and they dont go bust then there should be a quid or two in it from this point onward !!

Alright, I admit to a little exaggeration, but the point is no fundamental analysis technique which will give you better stock selections than any other FA technique over sushc a timescale.

For a 10yr investment timescale, most people would keep choices within the FTSE100, certainly outside AIM. You might limit your choices to regular dividend payers, with rising yields, assembling a mixed portfolio to moderate sector-specific risks, and so on - all perfectly valid guidelines. But its basically a triumph of hope over objective forecasting. There is nothing to distinguish between two companies in the same sector with similar fundamentals if you're looking ahead as far as 10yrs, its analysis of evidence that is irrelevant. I'm not arguing that TA would work either, its a timescale issue.

I like Autonomy AU.L
hi-tech
but so do others - P/E 47xs oh !

I'm of the view that water will be the most valuable commodity on the planet in years to come, and that wars will be fought over it - rather than over oil. Therefore, as a long term play, utility stocks - specifically water companies - merit inclusion in any portfolio.
Tim.

Dear Traders,

I will look at the following stocks (From US):
- AIG (Insurer)
- ABK (Insurer)
- EBAY (Online)
- LCC (Airlines)
- XLF (Financial ETF)
- QQQQ (Tech ETF) To be played for short to Medium term
etc

Remember that VIX is at all time high!!

Good Luck in your trading!!

Regards,
PalaceKid