Are Prices Random?

If there are people investing millions, do they invest with gut feeling or do they expect mathematical certainty? Here is an example of a modified fibo. On days, like 2nd, 4th and 9th, where it missed touching a line, it is a signal that there will be a retracement to its complementary fibo level and then it will return to close the gap.

Who are you, and what have you done to that chart?

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And no, prices are not random. Too many patterns in there for it to be.

Yes prices are random until hindsight kicks in.

There are 2 or 3 schools of thought on this and each can produce evidence to back up their hypothesis. Equally the opposing schools of thought can produce evidence to debunk the others' hypotheses. Either price is random, chaotic, or moves in/with definable repeating patterns/structure like elliot waves. Personally I believe all 3 and like Dr Alex Elder says - when our trading edge develops it is like '...an island of order in a sea of random chaos...' (of course random and chaotic are 2 seperate phenomenons but hey I like the quote!) The quote to me sums it up - there are definately repeating patterns in any market and some more than others. These can for example be represented on a chart and such repeating patterns, be they comprised of price action and/or other studies are visual graphical representations of repeating patterns of market behaviour (or not,) on any particular individual occassion.

G/L

No more or less random than anything else eggheads can't get their heads around.

I think a more pertinent question is, can you make money from a 1:1 win loss ratio.

Are prices random? After attempting to block out all the crap you have written on that chart, I'd say definitely no. It just looks like someone thought that he really didn't want all his gold anymore and decided to sell it no matter what price he could get.

Jason101 said:

I think a more pertinent question is, can you make money from a 1:1 win loss ratio.

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Can we predict this? NO
Can we profit from it? YES

I have two examples of order entry videos using this modified fibo retracements and without hindsight. Am not sure if i am allowed to add you tube links here. But you can check my profile for accessing the video.

jacknapier said:

Are prices random? After attempting to block out all the crap you have written on that chart, I'd say definitely no. It just looks like someone thought that he really didn't want all his gold anymore and decided to sell it no matter what price he could get.

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Thanks for tolerating me Jack. It started last year, not yesterday. People who bought early 10 years back, are making profits no matter what price they are selling.

forexintel said:

If there are people investing millions, do they invest with gut feeling or do they expect mathematical certainty? Here is an example of a modified fibo. On days, like 2nd, 4th and 9th, where it missed touching a line, it is a signal that there will be a retracement to its complementary fibo level and then it will return to close the gap.
........

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People have all manner of reasons for investing. Some use gut-feel, others maths.
Some use gut-feel, but re-inforce their instincts by using any manner of pseudo-maths to justify it, ie, gann, fibo, etc.

Are Prices Random?
Are Prices Random ALL the time?
Are Prices Random SOME of the time? (transient orderliness)
Do Prices Appear Random, but turn out not to be once you change the time-frame?
Are Prices Random, or is it that there is actual Order, but is too subtle for our perceptions?

As per previous posters, these are delightful details to muse over once you realise it's more about extracting your share of the money.

What are "modified" fibos?

vielgeld said:

who are you, and what have you done to that chart?

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lol