eminis contracts -what is the risk??

This is a discussion on eminis contracts -what is the risk?? within the Futures forums, part of the Financial Markets category; Mechanical Day Trader, Keeping your risk at the 1:3 ratio, you can win 33% of the time and still break ...

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Mechanical Day Trader,

Quote:
Keeping your risk at the 1:3 ratio, you can win 33% of the time and still break even (not counting commissions). Assuming some of your wins exceed your minimum profit objective of 15 points, and your win/loss ratio is maybe 45%, your profit can be substantial.
Anyone can pull numbers out of thin air and say "assuming". I am saying EXACTLY the same thing you are but with different numbers. You can make a substantial profit with a much higher win % and smaller risk/reward ratio. It's simple arithmetic....and I'm not trying to sell anything

My trading is based on battlehardened, REAL WORLD experience, not rehashed booklearned rubbish...OK?.. So YOU bugger off, Mr non-original, booklearned salesman!
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booklearned rubbish? kinda like driving on the correct side of the road -- some things never change as basic rules for trading (not scalping).

If you are trading (not scalping) you will likely start with the 1:3 rule and attempt to optimize from there -- some things never change, and that's one of 'em! (12 Golden Rules document what you "mock"). What sources do you have to backup your trading methodology??? no facts, just hot air. Beware of hot air generators, Forum Readers!!

You're a one note narrowed mind song New_Trader; try broadening your scope to include at 2 more people in the planet of FIVE BILLION+, ok? Now Communist China has more people on the internet than the descending US of A (do I have Chinese Language class tonight?? LOL).

Check my other thread in "Trade Journals", a good trading style (not scalping) is to only enter positions where there are multiple profit objectives. If you are in a trading range, there might only be one profit objective - thus you hit your objective and you are done. If you find yourself in a overbought or oversold condition that is likely to be "cured" by a decent trend (yeah, those little, itty bitty Dow Trends of 80 points, 125 points, etc that occur about twice a day). The first hour of the Dow almost always presents multiple profit objectives and a likely 100 pt trend 90% of the time.

Here's a likely Dow scenario you can use 6+ hours a day:
-- you can take your initial profit objective on your first contract
-- move your other contracts to breakeven (the ob or os condition is cured, the trend has started)
-- let your other contracts run as far as the market goes, getting out at a known reversal formation (using Dow time and price rules)


For the other 4.9+ Billion people out there that MIGHT read this Forum to 'broaden' their trading horizons instead of getting a thousand posts from Crusty Old One Note Futures Traders (that need bifocals) here's some cool numbers from a Tradestation developer I have no relation with. I show these System Report numbers just to demonstrate you how the 1:3 ratio really works over a broad range of commodities -- and about 7000 trades -- you might be able to create something different but it won't work (probably) over the long term over a broad range of market action.


Net Profit $2,684,282
% Time In Market 89%
% Winning Trades 39%
Win/Loss Ratio 2.6 to 1
Avg Winning Trade $2,555
Avg Losing Trade $973
Avg # Trades/Commodity/Yr 12

here's the link for the full dog and pony show (I do not endorse anything, it is simply for illustration!!) -- note the Equity Curve graph -- some systems I have written years ago looked kinda similar -- nice long peaks upward, short abbreviated peaks downward -- nothing, however, as impressive as what is contained in this link. Have no idea if the dang thing works, but the theory is there. This is one of the targets you can aim for when designing a automated system that sticks to the 1:3 risk management rule -- and you will likey stay out of debtor's prison as well.

Good Trading Everyone!

The Mechanical Day Trader
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Money Management Illustration

Here's the link to the Tradestation System Report I refer to above --

Catscan

Again, no relation, not hawking anything..just a good, clear illustration of how using tried and true money management will protect you from ruin over the long haul. I don't trade anything like this and it's not my cup of tea, but dudes with idle discretionary accounts eat this stuff up. Look at the consistency of the math throughout the entire backtesting. Amazing!

Average % of wins is 39% and look at that EQUITY CURVE!! It goes STRAIGHT UP because of

********** 1:3 money mangement *************

Good Trading !

The Mechanical Day Trader
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mechanicaldaytrader View Post

some things never change as basic rules for trading (not scalping).


For the other 4.9+ Billion people out there that MIGHT read this Forum to 'broaden' their trading horizons instead of getting a thousand posts from Crusty Old One Note Futures Traders (that need bifocals)
What part of your own advice do you not understand?
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Thanks! The post above is recommended by: trendie , Splitlink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mechanicaldaytrader View Post
Here's the link to the Tradestation System Report I refer to above --

Catscan

Again, no relation, not hawking anything..just a good, clear illustration of how using tried and true money management will protect you from ruin over the long haul. I don't trade anything like this and it's not my cup of tea, but dudes with idle discretionary accounts eat this stuff up. Look at the consistency of the math throughout the entire backtesting. Amazing!

Average % of wins is 39% and look at that EQUITY CURVE!! It goes STRAIGHT UP because of

********** 1:3 money mangement *************

Good Trading !

The Mechanical Day Trader

So why are you trying to sell it?
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Show me a system that trades 7000 times that doesn't use 1:3 money management. And the drawdowns on the guy's backtesting (his system consistently wins awards) is not too painful. Good profit factors as well. Put up or Shxt Up!

Show me your system results with 7000 trades with 1:1 managment trading more than one market - also show your profit factor and equity curve.

People that use this Forum need to be guided by solid advice, not undocumented claims by hot air generators. Show this Forum proof of your claims.

The Mechanical Day Trader
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mechanicaldaytrader View Post
Show me a system that trades 7000 times that doesn't use 1:3 money management. And the drawdowns on the guy's backtesting (his system consistently wins awards) is not too painful. Good profit factors as well. Put up or Shxt Up!

Show me your system results with 7000 trades with 1:1 managment trading more than one market - also show your profit factor and equity curve.

People that use this Forum need to be guided by solid advice, not undocumented claims by hot air generators. Show this Forum proof of your claims.

The Mechanical Day Trader
System


You haven't got a clue, have you?
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BUYER BEWARE.

Enough said.
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-Jesse Livermore

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N.B: Most of my views, advice and opinions are based on short-term trading.
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