Day Trading & Forex Forum

new_trader

Are these just arbitrary figures used to support your theory? Lets say someone risks $1 to make $1 and instead of a meagre 33% win rate they have a win rate >70% !?

...let me guess, you've read McDonell Doglasss'sss book (or whatever his name is )

__________________
"It always pays a man to be right at the right time."
-Jesse Livermore

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N.B: Most of my views, advice and opinions are based on short-term trading.
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new_trader

When I think of 'Automated' system I think of a threshold system where absolutely no discretion is applied. So yes, to me it is very hard to believe that he can get a 90% win rate from such as system. There is no reason for me to doubt that HE can get an 85% win rate in his discretionary trading.

__________________
"It always pays a man to be right at the right time."
-Jesse Livermore

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
N.B: Most of my views, advice and opinions are based on short-term trading.
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ikeano

hi new
yes-i agree,where the historical win percentage is high,surely one can afford to use different sets of rules-even at a 50 % win rate as you say all the figures change drastically-


rei

ikeano

hi new -
thanks for that clarification
-brian

mechanicaldaytrader

You are a "legendary trader" with over a thousand posts on this forum, and you are not aware of the 1:3 risk/reward ratio in futures trading? How many automated systems have you backtested in Tradestation or a similar platform?

I've been around Tradestation since version 4.0 - risking $1 to make $3 is a typical standard to start backtesting any automated system. From there, you adjust your automated program to a better win ratio.

I would refer you to John Murphy, the Dean of Technical Analysis for the past 20 years regarding risk/reward ratios, or maybe become a CTA, you'll learn a lot about risk/reward!

If someone is risking $1 to make a $1, that is not trading, that is scalping, imo. Hey, if it works go ahead and do it, but that's not trading in my book. Futures Trading to me is making a few winning trades using high probability setups and receiving a great return for your risk and your time. With the Dow moving 110 points plus per intraday trend (and it does it 2x daily), I am not taking one point on the Dow and getting out!

The Mechanical Day Trader

new_trader

In total, precisely 0, none, ziltch, zip...etc

How many successful discretionary trades have you made in your life?

How many successful discretionary trades have you made since version 4.0?

Why do you think I need to read another book? Instead of reading books, why don't you learn to read the market, like I did and continue to do

Does it really matter what you decide to call it? I'm sure Warren Buffet considers anything less than 5 years as scalping.

Who says I disagree? When I enter a trade I can't be 100% certain if it's going to result in a loss or a profit, nor can I be certain how much profit. Do you see? This is why risk/reward ratio is something only mechanical traders talk about. I talk about proficiency because that's what matters and that is what makes money. Proficiency

__________________
"It always pays a man to be right at the right time."
-Jesse Livermore

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
N.B: Most of my views, advice and opinions are based on short-term trading.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

mechanicaldaytrader

how many discretionary trades have I made? -- can't count..but lots...I've been doing the mini-Dow for about 2 years; I did the Forex before for about 3 months.

I trade the Mini-Dow because it is a manipulated market and can be pretty easily discerned mechanically (with low risk) as to what the future direction is and how far it will go in that direction.

The S & P is much harder (for me to trade), and I haven't paid attention to it for about 5 years since I have been trading the Dow.

Scalping and Trading are mutually exclusive in my book. Scalping (to me) means you don't have confidence in staying with your trading decision (and I was not confident trading the S & P intraday, so I can relate) a longer time to get a substantial reward. Trading is having confidence in how and why and where the market has reversed and staying with your trading decision so you net a substantial reward a fair amount of the time, without risking the Farm or Barn.

The Mechanical Day Trader

EDIT: Here's this morning's trade...happens almost every day, same time (direction might be different, LOL!!) Risk is 5 ticks or less. Profit was 97 ticks. Time in trade 75 minutes for the second entry, 100 minutes for the first entry. This trade uses one of the 3 causes of all reversals (up) in the futures market (imo). If it doesn't fit one of those 3, I don't take the trade.

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mechanicaldaytrader

These trade entries occurred at the open and during the first 90 minutes of trading.

> First Long entry @ Market Open 8:30 (Chicago time) -net about 115 points ($575 per contract)
> Second Long entry @ 8:50 - net about 110 points ($550 per contract)
> Third Long entry @ 9:37 - net about 55 points ($275 per contract)

Profit & Loss Statement for first two hours of Mini Dow Session: $1400 /group of 3 contracts

The Mechanical Day Trader

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