Deal Or No Deal !

Deal or no deal the best show on TV ....

Possibly, but that’s not hard nowadays. Apart from the bit were they cuddle each other after every box is opened, kiss and tell each other, how much they love each other, it’s quite entertaining.
A game they can’t fix, and a game based on greed and fear, like trading. The show last night ‘colour of money’ and other shows like ‘millionaire’ can be manipulated in mid play. But D.O.N.D. what you see is what you get. Nobody can resist the £27,000 offer though.

The show would be even better if it was prime time with a million in the pot !

K

that show has been described as the equivalent of taking an hour to watch someone do a scratchcard.

the psychology is interesting.
they seek out the lowest value boxes (to keep the highest for themselves).
by pure random guessing.
the only skill is deciding if the offer is worth taking, or whether to carry on.

however, once a deal is taken, they then seek out the highest value boxes.
by pure random guesswork.

this is in order to justify to themselves their deal was a good one!

eg;
suppose 2 boxes were available.
the £1 box. the £250,000 box.

if the offer was £10,000.

if they refused the £10K offer, they would try to win the £1 box, by random guesswork, leaving them the £250K box.
to justify their decision to refuse the deal.

if they accepted the £10K offer, they would now try to find, and eliminate the £250K box, leaving them with the £1 box.
for no other reason than to make themselves feel better about accepting the £10K box.

once a decision has been made about which box/offer you have, all other outcomes are irrelevant, as you are out of the game with your decision.

weirdly fascinating. reminds me of the idea of "sunk cost" theory of poor decision making.
also reminds me about how we sometimes kick ourselves about getting out of a trade when it carries on, and the feeling of "missing out" part of a move.

Some of the best shows are when they take the cash, carry the game on and the banker makes them another offer with 2 boxes left.

ie

They have £15k in the pocket. They carry the game on, they are left with 2 boxes with £50 and £100,000 in them, the banker gives them the option to buy the game back 50 / 50 chance, they even have the chance to swap the box in front of them.

Good stuff for afternoon telly, as I said, can you imagine the emotions for a million on the board

K

I've never watched an episode in full, its just struck me as being far too simple for a person with my IQ. Dumbing down at its best.

I remember when quiz shows were quiz shows - blockbusters, going for gold, the weakest link.

But any program that resurrects the career of noel edmonds, should be boycotted & condemned if you ask me.

Deal or no deal, the worst show on TV ....

Well, after Jerry Springer anyway

Should be required watching for any sensible trader. Prospect theory in action and beautiful for it.

For example, two contestants have won the full £250k. On the other hand nineteen have won 1p.

This behaviour is extraordinarily difficult to model... it doesn't fit standard utility theory.

here, here

K