Quote:
the probability of two consecutive Heads OR 2 consecutive Tails the result is a Probabilistic OR which yields 0.375 (6/16).

Ok, so if your Fib sequence was wrong with respect to the formula, then was your answer wrong, yes? I'm not sure you even mean what you wrote above. The probability of getting either 2 heads or 2 tails consecutively is pretty high theBramble (do a simulation and get an approximation).
The reason I asked for clarification on the question is that there are two separate problems. There is the question where you toss the coin 4 times, you have the 16 outcomes, each equally likely, and you can get the probability as Gecko did of there being two heads or two tails. 7/8 was correct for that.
There is a second problem dealing with runs/sequences. And that looks at a sequence of heads and tails (imagine an infinite string of them if it helps). You then focus in on a group of 4 and ask the question what is the probability of having two heads or two tails. For that you have a formula like the one you quoted. Why do you assume this is the same question Bramble? Quote:
The probability of eventA OR eventB is the sum of EventA and eventB.

This is certainly NOT true in general. It is only true for disjoint events. Quote:
Loose in what respect? It absolutely does make that the outcome. If you push the binary outcome of either H or T and the number 100 through any standard probability formula you will come out with a 1:2 and a 50/50. If you can find a basic probability formula that yields anything other than result from those parameters you need to post it – with the appropriate references of course. LOL.

You've misunderstood what I am saying. I am not saying the mean won't be 50:50, I'm saying probability doesn't tell you what the outcome will be. That is an important distinction, getting 99 heads and 1 tail is an outcome. If I have tossed a coin 99 times and it is 49:50, probability does not tell me it will be 50:50 after the next coin toss. It is not saying what the outcome is. It is giving you a distribution, and that's all. From that you can have a confidence interval. But what is the probability of you actually getting 50 tails and 50 heads from 100 coin tosses? Is probability telling us to be confident of that outcome? How confident? Which is why i commmented. For probability to suggest something to us about an outcome, then you would want the probability to be pretty high of that outcome or event. Quote:
That’s the point. I wouldn’t argue with those people, but they are not quoting standard probability are they. And their guess is a lot less improbable than basic probability theory allows for. My whole point.

You haven't made any sense here. When you say it is a lot less probable than probability allows for, it is selfcontradictory. Probability allows for a lot, but it is a model for the real world. It is up to the individual to decide whether that is a good model or a bad one. But that doesn't mean that probability doesn't allow an accurate model.
Last edited by Calinor; Apr 6, 2009 at 7:53pm.
