Basic Probability

This is a discussion on Basic Probability within the The Foyer forums, part of the Off the Grid category; So, based on what you think it currently is trendie, if you were offered the opportunity to take part in ...

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Old Mar 29, 2009, 11:28am   #41
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TheBramble started this thread So, based on what you think it currently is trendie, if you were offered the opportunity to take part in a high-stakes wager where you win on the first occurrence of two consecutive Heads in a maximum 4 coin tosses game, what would your Aw:Al ratio have to be for it to become marginally positive enough for you to consider participation?
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Old Mar 29, 2009, 11:57am   #42
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Guys, probabilities make sense in your examples only as relative frequencies. There is a lot of debate about the relevance of of limiting probabilities to single or few step decision making processes.
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Old Mar 29, 2009, 1:51pm   #43
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TheBramble started this thread I do understand what you're saying IDB, but where we don't get the luxury of deciding or debating or limiting probabilities to a single or few steps decision making process, we do need something to work with.

The entire purpose of this thread is to investigate what many have always (I'm guessing) used for their probabilistic decision making processes and compare that with what is currently believed to be more useful and which more closely mirrors the reality we encounter – especially when we trade.
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Old Mar 29, 2009, 9:38pm   #44
 
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Next you're going to start spouting on about "probability pressure"
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Old Mar 30, 2009, 11:19pm   #45
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Originally Posted by TheBramble View Post
For any who have the vaguest hint of energy or interest left in this topic, have a shot at guessing the minimum coin tosses youíd need to make to, statistically, in our very real, but non-Gaussian Universe, generate all of the 16 possible strings of results from a nominal 4 coin toss sequence?

If you donít have any idea, set a lower bound and an upper bound for the numbers you think are 90% likely to encapsulate the actual answer to this one. Iíll post the answer later.
It's 19.

2^N + N+1 (Havil, J. Gamma: Exploring Euler's Constant. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2003. )

But who gives a toss. LOL












note to brain: don't bother with anyhting like this again. let's find the equivalent of page 3 for traders - they'll all like that....
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Old Apr 6, 2009, 2:05pm   #46
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I don't think you have specified the question too well. That list of 16 isn't a sensible list of outcomes with regard to the experiment you're interested in. But before I get into this more
Quote:
The Probability of two consecutive Heads in 4 coin tosses is derived from the formula (Gardner, Berlkamp below)

1-(F(n+2)/(2^n))
where F(n+2) is the (n+2)th Fibonacci number

In our example the value is 0.1875 (3/16).

For the last question asked, the probability of two consecutive Heads OR 2 consecutive Tails the result is a Probabilistic OR which yields 0.375 (6/16).
What exactly are you saying here? Your formula above has an 'n'. If you take the 'n' to be the coin tosses (you didn't define 'n') then you would not have the answer you gave, right?

Last edited by Calinor; Apr 6, 2009 at 2:56pm.
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Old Apr 6, 2009, 2:57pm   #47
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Got distracted on the FTSE closing the gap from the 1st April , so only just finished editing above
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Old Apr 6, 2009, 3:04pm   #48
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Originally Posted by Calinor View Post
Got distracted on the FTSE closing the gap from the 1st April , so only just finished editing above
Yes, N is the number of coin tosses (4).

What did you get for 1-(F(n+2)/(2^n))
where F(n+2) is the (n+2)th Fibonacci number
and where N=4?
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