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Old Dec 17, 2008, 1:20am   #1
 
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Forex Day Trader's Thread

This thread is for live spot FX discussion as well as INTRADAY FX calls. Please do not discuss commodities or stocks at all, nor FX trades on time scales longer than 24 hours. Please do not make calls if you're using a demo account. Also, this thread is not to be used for posts about general trading theory, it is for those who actually trade rather than those who theorize about trading.

Please check out the last page of the thread to see what we're talking about today.

Last edited by Pippy5000; Nov 29, 2009 at 10:22pm.
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Old Dec 17, 2008, 2:26am   #2
 
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Pippy5000 started this thread Lost nerve.. +55.. screwed myself to the tune of another +50

There's only so many times you can mutter "take the profit you idiot" before you do and then feel sick as you watch your trade mature into much larger profits.

Nonsense.. this price action is nonsensical. I'm not getting into this again.. Anyway, good luck when LSE opens limey brothers! I'll guess you guys will know if I made the right decision before I do as I sleep.

The big short will be on soon enough .. I just don't have the nerve to continue. The price action is completely sickening/primal, abdominal anger inspiring. 55 profit is good enough. I'd rather miss out on a mulitple thousand pipper than stay in this emotional hole any longer...

Look for a big short soon enough.. I'd check the daily US Dollar index charts for an obvious bullish signal for USD

watch 85.5.. a break is worth 800 pips.. sustained time below will signal medium-term long Euros.. otherwise expect major retracement and expansion into the 90s.

There might be a WH announcement regarding the auto bailout "in a while" which could easily cause long Euros again or a monstrous, monstrous short .. keep the stops tight on long USD, but keep in mind that further Euro gains would be one of the most monmumental sustained moves of all time .. and the math doesn't actually support it.. Doesn't mean it won't happen but the math isn't there.

50, 100, 200 overbought is there. Profit-taking is there.. People have silly grins on their faces while they cash in knowing the bottomless pit of doom is on the horizon..

Please, please come a litle higher EUR/USD .. I will short you again and with more balls.

Last edited by Pippy5000; Dec 17, 2008 at 3:14am.
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Old Dec 17, 2008, 2:36am   #3
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One have must patience . Good call imo, BS rally into christmas. Expecting retracements in the morning i hope.
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Old Dec 17, 2008, 3:34am   #4
 
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Pippy5000 started this thread Oh I forgot to tell you to also watch for the Japanese intervening to weaken the JPY vs. the USD which will also strengthen the USD vs. the Euro. There's only so much the Japense will allow the USD to drop again the Yen.

believe me no one else will buy the Toyota Tundra
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Old Dec 17, 2008, 3:48am   #5
 
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Pippy5000 started this thread Good Lord a Scottish-South African .. You must sound like an old lawnmower trying to start son..

It's a grrrrrreat day in Sooth Afrrrrrica
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Old Dec 17, 2008, 3:55am   #6
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I'm a lazy scot, I put in the input box "Edinburgh, Scotland" and it gave me a south african flag. Geez.

I'm still waiting for the morning to make a move. Nice 55 pips you got though, I got a short from 1.4140 down to 14090 - I was planning on adding at 141 and ride it down till the morning but i decided against it.

I think i'll be bearish in january. Good luck mate, hopefully you catch the UK open if your awake for long enough .

Wait a minute, why am I awake????
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Old Dec 17, 2008, 4:02am   #7
 
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Pippy5000 started this thread Eat a piece of white bread and drink tons of water and a multi-vitamin.. You're still awake because you stayed awake past the fun drunk phase into the nasty feeling dried up phase.. Hit the hay with the prescribed medicine and don't worry about this boring 10 pip range EUR/USD is doing..
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Old Dec 17, 2008, 4:18am   #8
 
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I think i'll be bearish in january
Most definitely bearish on Dollars in 2009.. It just isn't the time yet.. I think most serious traders recognize this blip for what it is.. A correction, a retracement, wishful-thinking, short-term profit-taking opportunity.. Bright-eyed idealists are jumping up and down ..

The truth is that Euros are currently supported by thin air.. Euros are supported simply by the desire for Americans to make money in Europe in the short-term.. THERE'S NO POSITIVE NEWS FROM EUROPE TO WARRANT THIS.. let the US risk-takers get a little taste more and then watch them take the profits home to daddy.. Let them completely **** me off in the meantime by jacking the price up and down by 50 pips every 15 minutes..

Let us wait for the option ARM bubble to explode (look it up) .. The world is screwed in 2009 and that doesn't equal 1.418 Euros.. This isn't the Great Depression but it's not Disneyland either..
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Old Dec 17, 2008, 6:44pm   #9
 
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Pippy5000 started this thread Well.. with this ridiculous volatility you could go long or short on Euros and easily get stopped out on these random 90 pip moves.. I'm out altogether until this calms down.

All the experts seem downright angry today that their math isn't working in regards to the USD sellfest.

I'm concentrating on JPY for the rest of the week.
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Old Dec 17, 2008, 6:51pm   #10
 
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Euro went up a lot and you could have made money going long with little risk. You were wrong, it happens.
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Old Dec 18, 2008, 1:09am   #11
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Yea we are all wrong at some points. You can never expect to be right all the time, however nice that would be...
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Old Dec 18, 2008, 2:28am   #12
 
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So how are you doing now?
Did you ever get back into a short?
about 4200 was the big moves 50% retracement so I can see why you were looking for a short.
and about 4600 is the 62% retracement. Might look for about a 600 point retrace from around there.
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Old Dec 18, 2008, 5:25pm   #13
 
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You were wrong, it happens.
Actually I was right in the long run old bean

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Did you ever get back into a short?
well howdy there Tex!

Yes, I shorted with 8 lots at 1.47 just like I said I would .. after being stopped out with 4 at 1.45 .. I took profit at 1.43 on the last trade from 1.47

All happened while I was asleep

I don't have any clue as to the direction from this point so I'm done for the week. We're currently at 1.425 and the possibility of a big stop loss going long or short is too extreme. Lots of investment banks and other whales are causing moves I've never seen before.
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Old Dec 18, 2008, 6:01pm   #14
 
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Nice call!
As is obvious there is a reaction right(4200-4300 area) now, but when ever it's done my money is on a 300+ pip move back down.
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Old Dec 18, 2008, 10:41pm   #15
 
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Pippy5000 started this thread After seeing today's price action I want nothing to do with EUR/USD .. Might as well spin the wheel and say "black" or "red" .. We're at the mercy of the big boys now and it's been irritating.

Euro started the day at 1.44 jumped to 1.47 and then down to 1.42 in just a few hours..

I tell you what though if you are willing to use a monstrous stop loss then you have a pretty good chance of making some huge profits as well. I might be tempted to short again with 1 lot at 1.45 with a stop at 1.483 and a t/p at 1.35 .. Until it comes up to 1.45 again I'll leave it alone..

I will short with 8 lots at 1.47 again no matter what.. A solid double or triple top at 1.47 and I might be tempted to use 16 lots for the short.

Euro is at 1.427-8 right now and I'm not feeling great about trying to squeeze anymore short juice out of this lemon just yet.. If I miss the big short down to 1.30 so be it..
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