FX Trading June 18 to 22

hope everyone is having a good weekend.

last week was a frustrating range for most of us (if not all), hopefully we will get a nice week starting tomorrow

Cable hasnt broken out of its consolidation-congestion zone, and hopefully a breakout is on the making.
Weekly inside bar, daily and 4hr charts with an apparent higher low at a longer term trendline but that one could also seen as a triangle. In any case, the breakout should hint to direction for the coming weeks.

My personal view is that

a) price has been heavily testing support, but only 2 times tested medium resistance @ 9775-90. Price below this level still keeps my bearish bias but with need of confirmation with a significant breach of 9650 and including 9590.
b) Price above 9820 would partially eliminate my bearish bias and turn it to a larger consolidation. If price formation at the lows of the week are a higher low, there is an initial target at 9818 (from a measured move and ultimately 9945). I would only think that the test of 9820 is game for the bulls.
c) Price above 1.9880 would simply erase my bearish stand and position price for a new test of the big Round Number

I get the creeps of longing a bearish pitchfork, but thats me only.

have an excellent week all

j

Hi Jacinto,

Got back from holiday last night and catching up on all of last weeks forex posts at the moment. Seems like it was quite a choppy week for everyone.

My system put in another positive week, which I'm pleased with - so back to some real trading tonight when the markets open.

The MM next turn point - as far as I can tell - is around the 25th June, so we may see the market rise a bit up to this date. As yet I have got my head around the targets and Elliot wave and Fib price targets to give anything clearer. If anyone can help on this I'd be really grateful. As far as I'm concerned the jury is still out on the MM - but I am open to discussion.

JillyB said:

Hi Jacinto,

Got back from holiday last night and catching up on all of last weeks forex posts at the moment. Seems like it was quite a choppy week for everyone.

My system put in another positive week, which I'm pleased with - so back to some real trading tonight when the markets open.

The MM next turn point - as far as I can tell - is around the 25th June, so we may see the market rise a bit up to this date. As yet I have got my head around the targets and Elliot wave and Fib price targets to give anything clearer. If anyone can help on this I'd be really grateful. As far as I'm concerned the jury is still out on the MM - but I am open to discussion.

Click to expand...

hi jilly,

sent a pm.

j

edit: feel a bit like wasp, as i forgot 1 option for the poll....in process of correction.

I'm back and before the shiraz kicks in...

Cable experienced classic condolidation after a big drop and hopefully the new week will bring something interesting..

Something I did note looking back through and running a few tests based on a simple run-of-the-mill S/R theory is quite depressing... Here are the result from 2 random periods from each year....

2004 > 660 and 540 week
2005 > 420 and 500 week
2006 > 415 and 400 week
2007 > 390 and 200 week

irrespective of how I achieved these results, the obvious pattern does not ignite enthusiasm in myself...

jacinto said:

hi jilly,

sent a pm.

j

edit: feel a bit like wasp, as i forgot 1 option for the poll....in process of correction.

Click to expand...

Oops! Sorry, MM = market matrix.

We discussed it on the thread a couple of weeks ago.

I've attached an image of the current GBP/USD daily chart with the Market Matrix turn points on. The points for October to February are taken from a MM newsletter - so I'm pretty convinced that these are correct. (I have to say that they are totally different to the ones I arrived at by looking at the charts myself. I got 16 turn points for the forex and not 10 - just shows how you can interpret things differently).

Point 4 on 18th April was the last major high and a confluence of the Elliot wave on 2 major time frames. It gives the top of a 5 wave up movement on a longer time frame from October 2006 (green lines) and a smaller time frame from the beginning of March (purple lines) however this smaller upwave seems to have 7 waves to it, making me wonder whether this is a failure of the A,B,C correction wave. If it is, then what should happen next?

Points 5, 6, & 7 during May, appear to show a new downtrend wave, but then point 8 forms a higher high and 9 goes on to form a lower low - I'm getting a bit lost with the Elliot Wave part of this now. All I can say is that looking at the chart, point 10 should be due around 25th June and I would hazzard a guess that it will not go higher than point 8.

Anyone got any thoughts on this?

hi jilly,

i am not eliottician whatsoever, but this is my take of cable,

on a much longer time frame (monthly), 5th way up is finished (also composed of its own 5 waves up which appear also finished).

to be honest, i just like seeing these things as hindsight and not use them as setups.

edit: and as a hipothesis, i think we get corrections to 9200, then back up to 9800 (associated with increases in UK rates end of summer beginning of the fall) and start the decline of cable.

j

wasp said:

I'm back and before the shiraz kicks in...

Cable experienced classic condolidation after a big drop and hopefully the new week will bring something interesting..

Something I did note looking back through and running a few tests based on a simple run-of-the-mill S/R theory is quite depressing... Here are the result from 2 random periods from each year....

2004 > 660 and 540 week
2005 > 420 and 500 week
2006 > 415 and 400 week
2007 > 390 and 200 week

irrespective of how I achieved these results, the obvious pattern does not ignite enthusiasm in myself...

Click to expand...

good the shiraz didnt kick in and confuse itself with the beer cause i didnt understand a single thing you said

and next time, dont drink wine for a hangover......here is a freebie for ya

1) oil, garlic onion chopped chillies (5-8) on medium heat for some 4-5 mins
2) add passatta or chopped tomatoes
3) add several spoonfuls of coriander
4) salt
5) a bit of water
6) let cook for 60 mins
7) serve on top of tortilla chips (in case you dont get proper tortilla, which in your end of the world will be the case)
8) put cheese, ham and sour cream
9) very cold beer (drink it, dont pour it on top in case still drunk :cheesy: )

free mexican chilaquiles recipe for ya.

j

jacinto said:

good the shiraz didnt kick in and confuse itself with the beer cause i didnt understand a single thing you said

and next time, dont drink wine for a hangover......here is a freebie for ya

1) oil, garlic onion chopped chillies (5-8) on medium heat for some 4-5 mins
2) add passatta or chopped tomatoes
3) add several spoonfuls of coriander
4) salt
5) a bit of water
6) let cook for 60 mins
7) serve on top of tortilla chips (in case you dont get proper tortilla, which in your end of the world will be the case)
8) put cheese, ham and sour cream
9) very cold beer (drink it, dont pour it on top in case still drunk :cheesy: )

free mexican chilaquiles recipe for ya.

j

Click to expand...

J, some day could you divulge your families best chile recipe mate. ? cheers

wasp said:

I'm back and before the shiraz kicks in...

Cable experienced classic condolidation after a big drop and hopefully the new week will bring something interesting..

Something I did note looking back through and running a few tests based on a simple run-of-the-mill S/R theory is quite depressing... Here are the result from 2 random periods from each year....

2004 > 660 and 540 week
2005 > 420 and 500 week
2006 > 415 and 400 week
2007 > 390 and 200 week

irrespective of how I achieved these results, the obvious pattern does not ignite enthusiasm in myself...

Click to expand...

Hi, what means those numbers, pips per week? That language means that you first avoid the outliers and then try to determinate the behavior of the volatility per week with a psychological theory?

Greets

Ok, I see now, being totally sober, it probably doesn't make the slightest bit of sense really!

The sets of numbers are from a strategy I am looking at, and each set (ie 660 and 540) relate to the pips made that week I looked at. I looked at 2 random months from each year then divised it to get the weekly average.

My point being anyway, is that, at this rate if the trend continues, come 2010, the weekly pips from cable are going to be like, 20 pips a week!

Just me getting miffed by the lesser volatility coming into cable over the years.

I blame the retail traders and there 15min charts. Killing the trends they are.

Nice recipe BTW Jacinto, must try that. And, yes, wine probaly isn't the best hangover cure!

Crap Buddist said:

J, some day could you divulge your families best chile recipe mate. ? cheers

Click to expand...

That would be good

Crap Buddist said:

J, some day could you divulge your families best chile recipe mate. ? cheers

Click to expand...

no worries CB, will do on a different thread one of these days,

j

gone long cable and so short swiss.
see if it goes to 1.9850 by lunch.
stops at opening price.

jacinto said:

b) Price above 9820 would partially eliminate my bearish bias and turn it to a larger consolidation. If price formation at the lows of the week are a higher low, there is an initial target at 9818 (from a measured move and ultimately 9945). I would only think that the test of 9820 is game for the bulls.

Click to expand...

well that target is met, and im not in which is fine. lets see if it gets above 9820.
got to wait till i take my kid to school. too bad.

good luck oiltanker.

j

edit: well, hourly close above 20, suggests that is busted, changing mind from bearish to range on the dailys.

moved stops up to b/e

Swimming against the tide!

I have just been filled SHORT 9837, Stop 9857, TP1 9787

moved cable stop up to +20.
i had opened a euro long at the same time but that got stopped out at b/e.

cable is getting close to my downtrendline on the daily rsi and macd. if it breaks that a target might be 1.9950 [top boll band]?

jacinto said:

no worries CB, will do on a different thread one of these days,

j

Click to expand...

Nice one cheers.

Cable break flagged 1.9790 on my setup this AM. er, but ive done well to get to the screen at this time, daylight not far off when i retired this AM.

Waiting at the mo. Taking on water. I'd like something nice and simple today and not get involved in any big scrap, not before new york anyway might be half conscious by then.

I'd like it to ease off a bit but not shorting , something sub 1.9820-00

zuke said:

I have just been filled SHORT 9837, Stop 9857, TP1 9787

Click to expand...

nice entry zuke, jealous of that one, thats for sure.

something tells me you got in at the high of this week.....

j

and thinking of it, it could end up being a nice swinger too. seems like the plan of the week starts to unfold.