EUR/USD Interactive Trading

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FXTraderSK

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I am opening this thread in order to better ourselves as traders and share our various viewpoints and analysis. Anyone is welcome to post any analysis, beliefs, charts and real-time entries/exits, news, rumors, and whatever else they please as it relates specifically to the euro-dollar pair. I hope this thread serves its purpose as an interactive trading thread where we can post and chat in real-time while we trade. Hopefully we can all learn something from one another..

I primarily trade during the London/NY overlap and I'll usually be active around those times, however, any sessions along with all time frames are welcome as long as it relates to E/U. I will also be posting my own trades and perform trading metrics on my trades, sort of like a trading journal, but this is only to keep track of my growth as a trader and anyone else can do the same.

Good trading and welcome to the thread!
 
Post-Session Analysis and Sentiment Analysis

Unfortunately, my laptop charger wire got cut somehow and I will be unable to trade the rest of the week until a new one arrives. I'm stuck on the mobile, but I will still post analysis to keep myself updated in the markets.

To start off, I'm going to talk about today's market movements.

Post-Session Analysis

Today's US session was filled economic data, but unfortunately it left very mixed sentiment and there wasn't any clear direction as a result. There were no trading opportunities for me today. We had the first most important data, unemployment claims, come out almost on point at 274K, only just a little worse than forecasted. This initially caused a little nub move up, but this was quickly faded as it still showed the labor market was tightening. It was obvious market participants wouldn't commit to any positions until we looked at how more data came out. Next, we saw flash manufacturing PMI come out lower than expected followed by Existing Home Sales and the Philly Manufacturing Index also coming out worse than expected. It was some pretty disappointing data coming out of the economy poised to have the best growth out of the G7 countries, and this led to a spike up followed by a slight movement up. But what should be noted is that Euro Consumer Confidence also came out in the red and worse than expected. Also, earlier in the London session data out of the Eurozone was itself pretty disappointing. Combining this with the concerns over Greece, market participants are just left wondering what to do. No one is ready to commit money on the line until we get we get a more clear direction, and at time of writing EURUSD is back in the range it's been stuck in for the past 2 days.

Sentiment Analysis

My sentiment on this pair is currently mixed in the near-term. The data is very conflicting and leaving market players scratching their heads. The U.S. economy isn't doing as hot as it was expected to and that is weighing on the dollar, while the Greece crisis only seems to leave more questions then it answers. Long-term, I do believe the dollar will rise against the euro due to the different macro outlooks. A weaker dollar should help the U.S. economy as that is one thing the Fed noted could be weighing the economy down. The best play on current sentiment is to fade any breakouts back into the 1.1060-1.1150 compressed range at the midpoint unless new developments cause a shift in sentiment.
 
Major Key Themes

There are three major macro themes the market is focused on.

1) Recent sluggish U.S. data causing doubts for a near rate hike. Is the U.S. economy's growth slowing down or still strong? Recent weaker than expected data has caused traders to price in that a rate hike won't happen until December. This is much later then what the markets believed four months ago in that a rate hike would happen in June.

2) The Greece battle with its lenders. Will Athens be able to secure a deal with its lenders, or will it be unable to make payments and be forced out of the Eurozone? This back and forth game has market traders on edge as one day you hear a deal will be reached and negotiations are closing in, then the next day you hear that there are preparations being made in case a deal doesn't happen. This uncertainty if weighing on the euro.

3) ECB set to increase bond-buying program. Not currently as important as the other two, but still a major macro theme. The ECB has already signaled they will increase their bond-buying program. This quantitative easing will devalue to euro at a time when traders and investors are patiently waiting for the first rate hike by the Fed. The question is, when?
 
Just a quick note and them I'm off. Look out for CPI data out of the U.S. tomorrow. Hopefully it'll be a market mover. We also have Yellen speaking although I'll probably avoid taking any positions during that time.

Good luck!
 
Eurusd

If the EURUSD breaks below the 1.1100 level, then it practically has the road open to visit the 1.0500 level again, but the US fundamentals must help, otherwise nothing may happen.
 
Well we got the break thanks to CPI, but there's still a lot of uncertainty left over the economy. You're right though, a trend of good USD data can easily cause us to move to 1.0500 and I'm hoping that's the case.

This CPI data had a major impact and it may continue to do so more as sentiment shifts to the downside on E/U. The way the bulls are positioned leaves them very vulnerable to a cascade.
 
And just like that the Bulls got slaughtered. That was a pretty nice quick cascade. I'm eyeing the 1.0950-1.1000 area as the next support. We'll see how price reacts.
 
Greece says they will see a deal with lenders in the next 10 days? What do you guys think?

I've seen news like this come out before so I would laugh it off, however Greece cut the pay of bank bailout fund managers by 40%. It's showing that they are actually trying to make a deal happen. There's also a lot of pressure by the Greek citizens for a deal, but based on this governments past history, it's very iffy.
 
Price bounced off of the 1.1000 area. The news says this should keep the Fed on course for rate hikes which is bearish for E/U, but it's Friday and participants will be closing out positions. We'll have to wait until next week to analyze any new developments, but if nothing changes I'll be bearish at least in the near short-term.
 
Hawkish Yellen!

Still sees rate hikes in 2015 even with the sluggish data. So far the Bears are pretty set.
 
FXTraderSK said:
Hawkish Yellen!

Still sees rate hikes in 2015 even with the sluggish data. So far the Bears are pretty set.
Click to expand...

Agreed, with levels with so many traders now on the sidelines, eur/usd probably easy to achieve further downside.
 
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