Payroll Lottery

This is a discussion on Payroll Lottery within the Forex forums, part of the Markets category; Anyone want to go in for the NFP lottery today. I'll start the ball rolling with 223k. G-Man...

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Old May 5, 2006, 12:07pm   #1
 
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Payroll Lottery

Anyone want to go in for the NFP lottery today.

I'll start the ball rolling with 223k.

G-Man
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Old May 5, 2006, 12:16pm   #2
 
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a complete guess cos I haven't got the foggiest idea and who cares anyway

.... 190k
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Old May 5, 2006, 12:26pm   #3
 
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Originally Posted by Racer
a complete guess cos I haven't got the foggiest idea and who cares anyway

.... 190k
Judging by the way the markets can move there are quite a few people who care about the numbers. How they get their estimates....... I've no idea.

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Old May 5, 2006, 12:31pm   #4
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240k
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Old May 5, 2006, 12:31pm   #5
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by G-Man
Judging by the way the markets can move there are quite a few people who care about the numbers. How they get their estimates....... I've no idea.

G-Man

Aren't they a bit like oil.. if it falls.. that can be both the 'reason' for the markets to go down, yet it can also be the 'reason' the markets go up.. according to the media that is.. they change the sentence to suit
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Old May 5, 2006, 1:10pm   #6
 
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Aren't they a bit like oil.. if it falls.. that can be both the 'reason' for the markets to go down, yet it can also be the 'reason' the markets go up.. according to the media that is.. they change the sentence to suit
Absoluely agree, which is why it is important to watch what is going on after the numbers.

Whatever the result, things generally leap about a bit.

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Old May 5, 2006, 1:28pm   #7
 
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Originally Posted by GammaJammer
197 (for what it's worth). Total lottery as always, and the headline number isn't really important unless it's an outlier most of the time anyway. The devil's in the details.

My $0.02 as always

GJ
I think your knowledge and insight you post on this board make your $0.02 worth a couple of $$.

90 secs and counting. I'm fancy a good number as I'm basically short EUR/$.

G-Man
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Old May 5, 2006, 1:30pm   #8
 
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G-Man started this thread OK. Thats bad for me.

138k.

Whoops.

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Old May 5, 2006, 2:04pm   #9
 
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As a very vague rule of thumb you'll often find that these moves on big data releases are in the existing market direction. As GJ says, it doesn't usually matter too much what the data says, the market just waits for it & then uses it as a trigger to send it wherever it wanted to go anyway.

I don't normally use this to take a position into a release, but as the existing trend was so strongly up (on daily TF) I did enter a small £ long in advance this time ... which was nice

Simon
Quote:
Originally Posted by G-Man
OK. Thats bad for me.

138k.

Whoops.

G-Man
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Old May 5, 2006, 2:16pm   #10
 
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yes the news doesn't really matter.. the fact that earnings are up 3.8% and increased more than expected and also grew the most in the last year and the highest since 2001 is totally ignored for now anyway
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