EUR/USD and payroll numbers

This is a discussion on EUR/USD and payroll numbers within the Forex forums, part of the Markets category; I came accross a guy in the US yesterday trying to punt his system for trading the non farms payroll ...

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Search this Thread
Old Apr 19, 2005, 1:14pm   #1
 
Dave1971's Avatar
Joined Jun 2004
EUR/USD and payroll numbers

I came accross a guy in the US yesterday trying to punt his system for trading the non farms payroll numbers on the first friday of each month.

I haven't bought anything, but on initial research it seems a reasonable way to give your months tally a boost.

It would appear that if you place simultaneous buy and sell orders at 8.29am(EST) at the top and bottom of the 8.15am(EST) bar and let the trade run for just a minute or two, you have a pretty good chance of catching the initial spike when the numbers are released.

I was wondering if anyone had any experience of trading these numbers, and also if anyone had signed up to this guy, who's site is www.winningtradersassociation.com.

Unless I'm missing something I can't see what he could be selling beyond the above?


Dave
__________________
An open mind is always better than an open mouth...
Dave1971 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Apr 19, 2005, 1:43pm   #2
 
FetteredChinos's Avatar
Joined Jun 2003
sounds like the basis of his system.

i also have a fear that slippage may be enormous, as is usually the case on NFP data.

there was a 200 pip gap a few months back..

wonder if he included that in his "backtest".....


it probably does work over time. but what would you do for the remaining 19 trading days a month
FetteredChinos is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Apr 19, 2005, 1:44pm   #3
 
FetteredChinos's Avatar
Joined Jun 2003
also, never trust a man posing for a photo near a lake.

i reckon he is wearing concrete shoes, just out of shot.
FetteredChinos is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Apr 19, 2005, 2:10pm   #4
TWI
 
TWI's Avatar
Joined Jan 2004
I have traded non-farm for a long time, glad to finally find out where I have been going wrong.
If this system can work I think you need to be very skilled at the levels you place the orders and also you better be sure that whoever you are using will guarantee a fill at the price you specified or you could find out you bought the high and sold the low.
Wouldn't it be great to make all your months money by the first Friday....we can but dream.
__________________
"I refuse to tiptoe quietly through life
only to arrive safely at death"
TWI is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Apr 19, 2005, 4:43pm   #5
 
Dave1971's Avatar
Joined Jun 2004
Dave1971 started this thread Thanks for the input everyone, clearly usual rules apply, " if it's so good why sell it ".

Not that I would have bought a system off him, I was just enquiring whether anyone had used a similar strategy with any success.

Thanks again

Dave
__________________
An open mind is always better than an open mouth...
Dave1971 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Apr 22, 2005, 1:07am   #6
 
bertie's Avatar
Joined Apr 2003
Nfp

theres nothing new or complicated about a straddle trade......i always do it for the nfp and ive always been filled at the prices i stipulated in the buy and sell orders, whichever is hit first......

i usually set my orders about two minutes before the news is released about 15 pips either side of the actual price......i use a piece of software to make adjustments to the orders as price fluctuates before the news.......

you have to be quick to cancel the unfilled order as soon as you are in and to take profit which i usually do by means of a limit order as the news candle can turn around very quickly.......the last nfp got me 71 pips out of a 79 pip candle......after that price fell i think.......

i accepts its not trading but who cares......and i still trade the other 19 days of the month......
bertie is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Apr 22, 2005, 2:52pm   #7
 
bertie's Avatar
Joined Apr 2003
Nfp

i dont trade as many lots as i would in a normal trade so im unlikely to get wiped out........

i dont use a bookie either......i use interbank fx....they have no deal desk.....all trades are directed straight to the banks they have agreements with.......

i know several people who use interbank fx and none of them have ever been slipped......





Quote:
Originally Posted by GammaJammer
Fair enough - there's no law against you doing this. I just reckon one day you may come unstuck and potentially the cost could wipe out a lot of your earlier gains. Not to mention the fact that your booky is unlikely to rush to help you out if you ever do need a favour.

Incidentally, if you don't mind me asking, who are you trading with? I thought pretty much all shops had stopped guaranteeing fllls nowadays.

GJ
bertie is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Apr 22, 2005, 2:58pm   #8
Joined Jul 2004
Same question as GammaJammer's for bertie, thank you.
Hayek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Apr 22, 2005, 3:01pm   #9
Joined Jul 2004
Well, Interbank FX. Thank you.

A fairly new name in fx retail firms, I hope which is not the reason they are so nice.
Hayek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Apr 22, 2005, 6:53pm   #10
 
bertie's Avatar
Joined Apr 2003
Nfp

no, i trade spot forex.......

as far as im aware interbank fx dont do futures....



Quote:
Originally Posted by GammaJammer
Are you trading fx futures rather than spot bertie?

I ask because the slideshow on interbank fx's website depicts charts with symbols ending in 'H5', M5' etc (futures month / date suffixes).

GJ
bertie is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Apr 25, 2005, 12:59am   #11
 
bertie's Avatar
Joined Apr 2003
Interbank Fx

i thought id let you find that out for yourself, homer!!!.......

they are a good company and well worth a look at.......




Quote:
Originally Posted by GammaJammer
Ah - just taken a closer look. H5 means a 5 hour chart, M... means minutes etc. D'OH!
bertie is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
US Payroll figures? Airthrey Capital Indices 44 Mar 8, 2011 6:26am
EUR/USD and other - Elliott Wave Analysis FXO Forex 19 Jun 11, 2010 1:34pm
21 May Teh Euro {EUR) dekac Forex 5 Jun 12, 2007 10:54am
Eur/usd: Long set-up Depth Trade Forex 1 Jun 6, 2007 5:28pm
Payroll Lottery G-Man Forex 9 May 5, 2006 3:16pm

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)