GBPUSD analysis 2012

I thought I would start this thread re gbpusd for this year - 2012. Please feel free to share your analysis here.

G/L

current 1hr

Current 1hr chart below shows the near-term potential supp/res factors on this t/f. There are more fibs but these are plotted on the 4hr chart. You can see that the prev 1hr swing lo/hi zone caps the current upside with 38.2% 5487-5234 there and the previous 1hr swing lo zone and 50% of said 5234 - current pullback hi off that lo - 5328 caps the intraday downside/1hr ascending t/line.

Price currently in some consolidation then intraday 5281-5328.

So, below current price:

5283-77 prev 1hr sw lo zone
5260-34 prev 4hr/1hr sw lo zone (Friday and last week's Lo)
5228 Monday's Daily S1 @/around
5198 Weekly S1 @/around
5189 61.8% 4225-6746
[ 5150-20 ascending Monthly/Weekly t/f trend line on this daily candle
[ 5148 Monthly S2 @/around
[ 5144 Monday's Daily S2
5083 Weekly S2 @/around
5034-4945 prev weekly sw lo zone incl 5017 Weekly R3 @/around and 4970 = Monday's Daily S3 @/around
4935 Monthly S3 @/around
4819/17 76.4% 4225-6746 / Weekly S3 @/around
4796 Monday's Daily S4
4593 85.4% 4225-6746
4551 Weekly S4 @/around

G/L

U.s Bank Hol today of course (Martin Luther King day)...not gonna trade much beyond here. Quick look at the upside (plenty of fibs of the main weekly/daily/4hr and 1hr swings down to current 5234 lo hence below when not singular - just referred to as 'fibs'

Immediate upside is as follows:

5323-5329 prev 1hr sw lo/hi zone incl 5329 = 38.2% 5487-5234
5334 38.2% 5500-5234
5341 61.8% 5408-5234
5345 38.2% 5525-5234
5349 Weekly Pivot @/around
[5360-65 1hr ascending t/line on this present 1hr candle
[5360-70 prev 1hr sw hi zone incl 4 x fibs: @ 5360, 5365 then 2 @ 5367

[ 5375-80 dly/4hr descending trend line on this present 4hr candle
[5379,82,90 fibs

5387-97-5408 prev minor dly sw lo/4hr sw lo/hi/1hr sw hi incl 5397 and 5408 = fibs incl 5402 Daily R1 @/around
5412 fib

G/L

..added another 1hr descending t/line as the current daily hi becomes a fractal swing on that t/f...some kinda pennant/triangle thingy going on re this consolidation now ? The 50sma on this 1hr is also around the current daily hi (blue)

G/L

bbmac said:

....some kinda pennant/triangle thingy going on re this consolidation now... ?

Click to expand...

line perspective

upside progress meets 1hr desc trend line obstacle

Just back at desk looking at what I missed and updating charts. Looks like price finally broke upside of your descending line Jon.

Descending 1hr trend line is where current Daily Hi is, @/around the Weekly Pivot and 38.2% 5525-5234. Just above that descending 1hr trend line is the descending dly/4hr trend line.

G/L



Depends how this Daily candle closes but we could see a daily t/f fractal swing lo develop following Friday's 5234 lo.

barjon said:

line perspective

Click to expand...

By the way, the colour key to the shaded area on my charts is as below.

G/L

Tues 17th Jan

A fractal swing lo now on the daily t/f at last week's 5234 lo as a result of yesterday's daily candle...with some upside follow thru this London morning that has breeched the steepest 1hr and 4hr/daily descending trend lines to that upside.

Immediately @/above current daily hi:

5387-97-5408 prev minor dly sw lo/4hr sw lo/hi/1hr sw hi incl 5390, 5397 and 5408 = fibs
5412 fib
5418-22 prev 1hr sw lo zone (non immed) incl 5418 = Daily R3 @/around
5423/27 fibs
[ 5435-52 6 fib cluster
[ 5447-52 prev minor 1hr sw lo x 2 zone
5456/60/62 fibs
5464 Weekly R1 @/around
5478-87 prev 1hr sw hi zone incl 5480/81 = 2 x fibs
5490-5500 prev Dly/4hr/1hr sw hi zone
5503 50% 5774-5243
5510-24 prev 4hr/1hr sw hi zone incl 5514 and 5521 = fibs

Near-term current 1hr screenshot below.

G/L

tues 17th jan cont...

corresponding 4hr near-term current screenshot below.



G/L

currently this GBP broke the channel & touch the 3 year old trendline on daily chart.

I'm not see-ing that on the Daily..can you post a chart to show it ?

All I see on the Daily are descending trend lines...there are no obvious ascending trend lines joining fractal swing low's on this t/f although there is one on the weekly t/f joining the lo of Jan 2009 with that of May 2010. Last week's Low of 5234 is not yet a fractal swing lo on the weekly so cannot be joined from lo of may 2010 to form a new steeper weekly ascending t/line as yet. Daily chart below shows the descending t/lines on this t/f and you can see the steepest dly/4hr t/line just got breeched to the upside.

G/L

Futures Hunter said:

currently this GBP broke the channel & touch the 3 year old trendline on daily chart.

Click to expand...

tues 17th jan 2012

5404 the likley high today, as price pulled back from the previous daily minor swing lo/4hr & 1hr previous swing hi zone, confluence with 50sma-4hr, 200sma-1hr, and 61.8% 5500-5234.

Pullback from there has found some demand at the 50% of the 5234-5404 move confluence with top side of previous descending trend line on 4hr/daily.

1hr/4hr near-term current screenshots below.

G/L

The Daily t/f shows that the area of the cuurrent daily hi is a previous swing lo zone on this t/f...previous support now acting as resistance.

How strong are the bulls ? Uk employment data tomorrow may have an influence ?

G/L

weds 17th jan 2012

G/M

Last 4 x daily candles have been 2 x spinning tops and 2 x inverted pinbars...yesterday's IPB see-ing some bullish follow thru today as yesterday's pullback from 5404 (that followed rise off 5234 - last week's lo) found support at the 50% of 5234-5408 confluence with the topside of breeched former 4hr descending t/line. Subdued range < 20 day atr yesterday.

Bullish overall so far intraday price finding an upside obstacle at the Daily R1/1hr steepest descending t/line right now.

Immediately above current price:

[ 5385-90 descending 1hr t/line on this present 1hr candle
[ 5388 Daily R1 @/around

5397-5404-5408 prev minor dly sw lo/ 4hr sw lo/hi /1hr sw hi incl 5397 and 5408 = fibs
5412 fib

[ 5418-22 prev 1hr sw lo zone (non immed)
[ 5420 area descending 1hr t/line on present 1hr candle

5423/27 fibs

[ 5435-52 6 fib cluster incl 5443 = Daily R2 @/around
[ 5447-52 prev minor 1hr sw lo x 2 zone

5456/60/62 fibs
5464 Weekly R1 @/around
5478-87 prev 1hr sw hi zone incl 5480/81 = 2 x fibs and 5482 = Daily R3 @/around
5490-5500 prev Dly/4hr/1hr sw hi zone
5503 50% 5774-5243
5510-24 prev 4hr/1hr sw hi zone incl 5514 and 5521 = fibs

Near-term current 1hr screenshot as below.

G/L

4hr below shows how the pullback from yesterday's 5408 hi found fresh demand at the topside of the breeched (wide dotted line) 4hr ascending trend line (confluence with 50% 5234-5408.)

--------------------------------------------

remaining bullish overall intraday so far.

G/L

thurs 19th jan 2012

Yesterday's daily t/f bullish candle mirrors eurusd. Upside follow thru so far today after a pullback to 5414. Current Daily hi is at top of the prev 1hr sw lo zone/6 fib cluster to 5452. Yestrday's pip range just short of the 20day atr, subdued so far today at 31% of that.

To the immediate upside of current price;

[ 5435-52 6 fib cluster
[ 5447-52 prev minor 1hr sw lo x 2 zone
5456/60/62 fibs
5464 Weekly R1 @/around
5470 Daily R1 @/around
5478-87 prev 1hr sw hi zone incl 5480/81 = 2 x fibs
5490-5500 prev Dly/4hr/1hr sw hi zone
5503 50% 5774-5243
5510-24 prev 4hr/1hr sw hi zone incl 5513 = Daily R2 @/around and 5514 and 5521 = fibs
5530-40 descending 4hr t/line on this present 4hr candle
[ 5550-55 descending Daily/ 4hr t/line on this present 4hr candle
[ 5552 76.4% 5670-5234
5558/59 2 x fibs
5560 Monthly Pivot @/around
5567 61.8% 5774-5234
5574 38.2% 6130-5234
5582 76.4% 5690-5234
5585 Daily R3 @/around
5589 2 x fibs
5597 85.4% 5670-5234
5613-29 prev 4hr sw hi zone incl 5615 = Weekly R2 @/around and 5622 = 85.4% 5690-5234
5645 76.4% 5774-5234
5650-60-70 prev Dly/4hr swing hi zone incl 5662 = 50% 6091-5234
[ 5675-85 descending Daily t/line on this present 4hr candle
[ 5675-90 prev Dly/4hr sw hi zone incl 5681 = 50% 6130-5234

[ 5694-99 3 fib cluster
[ 5697-5707 prev 4hr sw hi zone
5710-24 prev 4hr sw hi zone
5730 Weekly R3 @/around
5743-74-78 prev Dly/4hr sw hi zone incl 5759 = Monthly R1 @/around and 5762 = 2 x fibs

To the immediate downside of current price per current 1hr screenshot below where DP is @/around 5406.

Bullsih so far intraday.

G/L

thurs 19th jan cont.....

Current near-term 4hr chart is below.

How strong are the bulls ?

G/L

eurusd

Gbpusd closely correlated to eurusd...Saxo Bank predicting little strength in continued eurusd rally and a potential target of 1.20 by end of 1st Qtr ? Gbp likely to be stronger though ?

G/L

You might be interested in this
Not your sort of trading perhaps

Key reversals with new high and new low on the same day
its a chart I saved to show someone else
but since the last plot, its still a valid signal