Opinions on betsfortraders.com

This is a discussion on Opinions on betsfortraders.com within the Fixed Odds & Binary Betting forums, part of the Markets category; they only seem to take bets to win 1000,surely big players would want larger bets than that to get a ...

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Old Jun 19, 2007, 4:32pm   #17
 
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Lord Flasheart started this thread they only seem to take bets to win 1000,surely big players would want larger bets than that to get a better book.I dont bet that much yet. NQR as I thought youd just have to see the bet out and not lay it off
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Old Jun 19, 2007, 4:51pm   #18
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Hi, have the spreads been wider today on Index bets?
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Old Jun 19, 2007, 5:36pm   #19
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I think they are the same at the money and the out of the money ones are also priced as before. I think they are a bit more expensive in the money though on some. Not sure why. The in the money ones were cheaper this morning, got more expensive around lunch time, then seemed to go down again and now are higher. I don't care as I don't trade in the money bets but I had spotted it.
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Old Jun 19, 2007, 11:22pm   #20
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by julian View Post
they only seem to take bets to win 1000,surely big players would want larger bets than that to get a better book.I dont bet that much yet. NQR as I thought youd just have to see the bet out and not lay it off
£1000 is the same as £10 pp on BinaryBet.

That is quite weak, almost a waste of time, especially for in the money bets.

Seems like this company doesnt have much confidence in their own product.
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Old Jun 20, 2007, 6:17am   #21
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Options

I've taken a look at the website, and the various bets offered. To what extent is this form of betting similar to traditional derivatives like options? Is it possible to apply traditional volatility and option pricing formulae to a betting strategy with BFT?

I've only ever spreadbet on index futures, but am considering keeping an eye on these "options" bets longer term. When I learn enough about various option strategies, Black–Scholes, etc, I may consider this*.

NQR - would you like to share some of your strategies for trading on BFT, the markets you are trading, the type of bets used, how those equate to traditional puts and calls, etc? Do you have a background in options?

I totally agree with not keeping more than £10k with a bookie, especially an offshore one. In fact, regarding your big win day I would have been fearing problems with the wire instruction. I doubt I could relax until the funds cleared.

* - I'm aware of most of the caveats surrounding options, especially for new traders. Before reading this thread, I always thought my use of options would never go beyond writing covered puts on some shares for income. I certainly wouldn't try and trade these bets in the near future until I absorb all the complex option pricing stuff. It looks interesting though
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Old Jun 20, 2007, 10:21am   #22
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On the question of their quotes. I was looking at ftse 6680-6710 at 12 o'clock today. The current price is 6673 and they are quoting 80, which is a joke. I can't find any good value quotes today.
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Old Jun 20, 2007, 10:42am   #23
 
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NQR

Just had a quick look at some comparisons of their touch / no-touch for UK equities and the spreads look pretty tight. Have you compared the implied volatilies offered by BFT against those in the traded options market ?
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Old Jun 20, 2007, 10:43am   #24
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NQR - would you like to share some of your strategies for trading on BFT, the markets you are trading, the type of bets used,

Sure. I trade the full gamut of bets offered but each in different markets and ways. I use volatility projection models to try to get the best of the prices I see on the site by buying volatility. I rarely make bets which involve selling volatility - this means I only take odds of 1/1 (evens / 50%) or longer going out to about 2/1 or sometimes 3/1.

The old adage 'low volatility leads to high volatility' is certainly true (and vice versa). When there has been a lot of recent volatility I don't chase it on the assumption of more to come... this is a losing game. In non-scientific terms I look for small increases in volatility and bet on them continuing to expand. This is done using some models which factor in market price action, changes in market implied volatility and my expectation of intraday volatility bands based on recent history.

All financial speculation is relevant to stochastic calculus, Ito's lemma, option pricing and so on because we are, in essence, modelling the unknown. Making projections into the future about a 'nearly' random variable (the market) within a framework that we understand.

I never bet big to start with. I scale into bets over a number of minutes. BetsForTraders let you have multiple open bets so I tend to go out to the limit in size (a grand) on the larger ones and place several of those to give me a larger payout. This is too big to start off on when working into a new bet though, usually I start with just a few hundred quid and work into it. If the market goes my way slowly or jolts against me. If I start winning 'too quick' I don't increase the bet because opportunity is usually gone by then.

I trade the indices the most but also do some FX, not really an individual stock enthusiast - probably laziness

On the cash management side of things I never risk more than a very small percent of my account balance. I am often wrong and would make net losses if I bet too big on the losing bets. This matters - I keep bet sizes pretty constant to avoid bringing a lot of luck into it. I don't want to bet big on the losers and small on the winners. All bets are born equal so I give them very similar (maximum) size allocations.

I don't worry about the money with the bookie, they are regulated in the British Isles, albeit the Isle of Man, it is hardly the Wild West.

Hope this gives a small insight...

NQR
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