Opinions on betsfortraders.com

This is a discussion on Opinions on betsfortraders.com within the Fixed Odds & Binary Betting forums, part of the Markets category; I've taken a look at the website, and the various bets offered. To what extent is this form of betting ...

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Old Jun 20, 2007, 7:17am   #21
 
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Lightbulb Options

I've taken a look at the website, and the various bets offered. To what extent is this form of betting similar to traditional derivatives like options? Is it possible to apply traditional volatility and option pricing formulae to a betting strategy with BFT?

I've only ever spreadbet on index futures, but am considering keeping an eye on these "options" bets longer term. When I learn enough about various option strategies, Black–Scholes, etc, I may consider this*.

NQR - would you like to share some of your strategies for trading on BFT, the markets you are trading, the type of bets used, how those equate to traditional puts and calls, etc? Do you have a background in options?

I totally agree with not keeping more than £10k with a bookie, especially an offshore one. In fact, regarding your big win day I would have been fearing problems with the wire instruction. I doubt I could relax until the funds cleared.

* - I'm aware of most of the caveats surrounding options, especially for new traders. Before reading this thread, I always thought my use of options would never go beyond writing covered puts on some shares for income. I certainly wouldn't try and trade these bets in the near future until I absorb all the complex option pricing stuff. It looks interesting though
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Old Jun 20, 2007, 11:21am   #22
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On the question of their quotes. I was looking at ftse 6680-6710 at 12 o'clock today. The current price is 6673 and they are quoting 80, which is a joke. I can't find any good value quotes today.
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Old Jun 20, 2007, 11:42am   #23
 
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NQR

Just had a quick look at some comparisons of their touch / no-touch for UK equities and the spreads look pretty tight. Have you compared the implied volatilies offered by BFT against those in the traded options market ?
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Old Jun 20, 2007, 11:43am   #24
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NQR - would you like to share some of your strategies for trading on BFT, the markets you are trading, the type of bets used,

Sure. I trade the full gamut of bets offered but each in different markets and ways. I use volatility projection models to try to get the best of the prices I see on the site by buying volatility. I rarely make bets which involve selling volatility - this means I only take odds of 1/1 (evens / 50%) or longer going out to about 2/1 or sometimes 3/1.

The old adage 'low volatility leads to high volatility' is certainly true (and vice versa). When there has been a lot of recent volatility I don't chase it on the assumption of more to come... this is a losing game. In non-scientific terms I look for small increases in volatility and bet on them continuing to expand. This is done using some models which factor in market price action, changes in market implied volatility and my expectation of intraday volatility bands based on recent history.

All financial speculation is relevant to stochastic calculus, Ito's lemma, option pricing and so on because we are, in essence, modelling the unknown. Making projections into the future about a 'nearly' random variable (the market) within a framework that we understand.

I never bet big to start with. I scale into bets over a number of minutes. BetsForTraders let you have multiple open bets so I tend to go out to the limit in size (a grand) on the larger ones and place several of those to give me a larger payout. This is too big to start off on when working into a new bet though, usually I start with just a few hundred quid and work into it. If the market goes my way slowly or jolts against me. If I start winning 'too quick' I don't increase the bet because opportunity is usually gone by then.

I trade the indices the most but also do some FX, not really an individual stock enthusiast - probably laziness

On the cash management side of things I never risk more than a very small percent of my account balance. I am often wrong and would make net losses if I bet too big on the losing bets. This matters - I keep bet sizes pretty constant to avoid bringing a lot of luck into it. I don't want to bet big on the losers and small on the winners. All bets are born equal so I give them very similar (maximum) size allocations.

I don't worry about the money with the bookie, they are regulated in the British Isles, albeit the Isle of Man, it is hardly the Wild West.

Hope this gives a small insight...

NQR
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Old Jun 20, 2007, 4:50pm   #25
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bintrader View Post
On the question of their quotes. I was looking at ftse 6680-6710 at 12 o'clock today. The current price is 6673 and they are quoting 80, which is a joke. I can't find any good value quotes today.
Yes i agree, for some bets you cant even get a price the other way.

Basically they are not quoting a two way market on all bets .. this is very suspect.

You know you are being ripped off when they wont quote the other side.

Looking at some bets on BinaryBet i noticed BB were quoting a price of 20 to buy but these guys were quoting 35 (on one of the daily index bets). When you try to sell this bet (by toggling 'rise' to 'fall') they say its not possible: bet is out of range.

Last edited by donaldduke; Jun 20, 2007 at 5:26pm.
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Old Jun 21, 2007, 3:55pm   #26
 
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Lord Flasheart started this thread I spoke to someone at BFT earlier and asked about their binary bets and the seettlement price. I said if I made a trade that states say ftse above 6632 in 15 mins and the market finishes at 6632.4 I would be on a losing bet as they round down at .4 and below and up at .5 to nine. So althought my bet would have been correct according to their description (ftse to finish above 6632) i would have lost. The same would apply if I went short at 6632 and it finished at 6631.9 as they would ropund it up. They cant have it both ways so I questioned them and am waiting for a response. The guys on the phones are newbies and lack info. Has anyone any further info on this.Thanks
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Old Jun 21, 2007, 4:07pm   #27
 
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Lord Flasheart started this thread ignore that last post, one of thier more senior guys called and said 1 tick over means bets settled as over and the same on shorts. The site seems more promising by the day,they do look as if they mean business and are here for the long term.
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Old Jun 21, 2007, 10:52pm   #28
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they don't currently have the option to sell bets back to BF'T's before expiration which is a bit crap... in 4 to 6 weeks they will however... Compared their pricing to betonmarkets on a few no-touches and barrier ranges, and BOM all three times were almost twice as expensive as BFT's...
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Old Jun 21, 2007, 11:05pm   #29
 
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Lord Flasheart started this thread It looks so much better than BOM in so many ways, I just hope its not too good to be true.Options to sell back and intra-day one touch and no touch would be very nice
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Old Jun 22, 2007, 10:20am   #30
 
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I have an account with BOM - with just a small amount of money in there to play with.

One of the things that struck me with these type of firms is the enormous spreads they operate.

For instance - If I get a quote for 2 expiry bets on at the money level.. one to expire above this level, one to expire below. So effectively one of these bets will win unless I'm very unlucky and the instrument finishes at exactly the same place as it started!.

With both of these bets - I get a return of 75% of my capital at risk - Therefore the spread of this bet is 25%. Yep - If I invest £100 in this 2-way bet I will hand over £25 in spread to the bookie.

To me that is absolutely extortionate!

Is the spread on betsfortraders similar?
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