Making Money Trading

This is a discussion on Making Money Trading within the First Steps forums, part of the Reception category; Originally Posted by forexbee Hi TD, I tried to take this USDJPY, but has turned to the other side around ...

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Old Nov 27, 2007, 10:38am   #751
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by forexbee View Post
Hi TD,

I tried to take this USDJPY, but has turned to the other side around after 4ish. On what basis you would move the breakeven as you mentioned in the morning post, Bcoz i didnt see any S/R above the pin entry ( i remember if there is any S/R Pivot its safe to move to next level Breakeven and cont the trade), am i missing something?

Your reply with chart would be better for understanding.

Fxbee
Fxbee,

Everyone will play exits differently but here is my thinking on this trade.

Firstly, the pin bar has strong resistance overhead. Price has already failed to break this area three times. The last time was earlier on the same day the signal occured.

You are taking a trade right into the resistance so you really want to see it break and if it doesn't, you don't want to hang around long enough to find out whether it is going to try again later.

As the pin triggers, there is a good move upwards. This momentum coming into the resistance area is what you want to see.
At this point I would immediately move my stop to breakeven.

My thinking is that if the price retraces back to the trade entry, the momentum is weakening which means the resistance is likely to hold in the short term.

For price to return to the entry point, the whole move up with its subsequent momentum has to be UNDONE. So the price entry becomes the place where I am WRONG on the trade.

If you held it through that bearish engulfing bar, you could have still got out at breakeven or better on the trade, which would have then been my objective.
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Last edited by trader_dante; Nov 27, 2007 at 10:44am.
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Old Nov 27, 2007, 11:34am   #752
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Quote:
Originally Posted by trader_dante View Post
Fxbee,

Everyone will play exits differently but here is my thinking on this trade.

Firstly, the pin bar has strong resistance overhead. Price has already failed to break this area three times. The last time was earlier on the same day the signal occured.

You are taking a trade right into the resistance so you really want to see it break and if it doesn't, you don't want to hang around long enough to find out whether it is going to try again later.

As the pin triggers, there is a good move upwards. This momentum coming into the resistance area is what you want to see.
At this point I would immediately move my stop to breakeven.

My thinking is that if the price retraces back to the trade entry, the momentum is weakening which means the resistance is likely to hold in the short term.

For price to return to the entry point, the whole move up with its subsequent momentum has to be UNDONE. So the price entry becomes the place where I am WRONG on the trade.

If you held it through that bearish engulfing bar, you could have still got out at breakeven or better on the trade, which would have then been my objective.

Hi TD,

Thanks for your valuable information, i didnt notice properly Resistance point there when entering, but after entering the trade i note the resistance and when i saw that it was trying to move up i was confident it would move, at the same time i was ready to pay for my lesson what iam going to learn on this entry if it is wrong. I got a valuable lesson now which is worth it on live account rather on paper in my opinion. ( playing with £0.10 at the moment, so its worth knowing how not to trade)

Also i believe rather taking counter trend trades until get experienced, for newbies its worth taking trade on trend (except need mooooreeeee patience to wait for it, & iam prepared for it )

Fxbee
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Old Nov 27, 2007, 1:35pm   #753
Joined Jul 2006
fibs



Hey TD

Have a look at this on youtube. They are taking reversal`s when fibs are failing at retracements. They seem to be drawing it in reverse however.

For the cable trade, he draws the 1st fib in the direction of the uptrend from swing low to high. Fair enough. Then, for the next day, he draws it from the intraday (15min) low to high - and says its pointing down. Price fails at 61.8% and goes down.
These guys are using the extensions as profit targets which I know you dont do.

If in an uptrend,can retracements be used as resistance ?

Thanks
CT.
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Old Nov 27, 2007, 1:42pm   #754
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by combotrader View Post


Hey TD

Have a look at this on youtube. They are taking reversal`s when fibs are failing at retracements. They seem to be drawing it in reverse however.

For the cable trade, he draws the 1st fib in the direction of the uptrend from swing low to high. Fair enough. Then, for the next day, he draws it from the intraday (15min) low to high - and says its pointing down. Price fails at 61.8% and goes down.
These guys are using the extensions as profit targets which I know you dont do.

If in an uptrend,can retracements be used as resistance ?

Thanks
CT.
Thanks for this CT. I am intrigued. I can't look whilst at work but I will when I get home.
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Old Nov 27, 2007, 1:57pm   #755
 
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gold

wish id have seen this earlier
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Old Nov 27, 2007, 4:09pm   #756
Joined Feb 2007
Quote:
Originally Posted by forexbee View Post
Hi TD,

Thanks for your valuable information, i didnt notice properly Resistance point there when entering, but after entering the trade i note the resistance and when i saw that it was trying to move up i was confident it would move, at the same time i was ready to pay for my lesson what iam going to learn on this entry if it is wrong. I got a valuable lesson now which is worth it on live account rather on paper in my opinion. ( playing with £0.10 at the moment, so its worth knowing how not to trade)

Also i believe rather taking counter trend trades until get experienced, for newbies its worth taking trade on trend (except need mooooreeeee patience to wait for it, & iam prepared for it )

Fxbee
Hi Fxbee, I am of the same opinion regarding learning with real cash albeit with £0.10 a point. I took a similar trade to this and learned to wait for pins that either extend away from the price action or at the bottom of swing lows/tops of swing highs. Requires a lot of patience in my view.
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Old Nov 27, 2007, 4:26pm   #757
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tafita View Post
I took a similar trade to this and learned to wait for pins that either extend away from the price action or at the bottom of swing lows/tops of swing highs. Requires a lot of patience in my view.
It certainly does. Good point Tafita
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Old Nov 27, 2007, 4:43pm   #758
Joined Nov 2005
EURCHF Daily in progress

Have read through this thread a second time now, should really throw all notes into one big doc at some stage. Thanks for the nuggets of wisdom TD, it isn't totally straight forward for me but hoping to get there. Just takes a bit of application I hope.

Here's a trade that I'm in right now (on paper), it's in the red just now. The reasons for entering were:

- Major pivot line from weekly in pin area.
- TL support (I understand that's not what you look at but looked solid to me)
- Price projection showed possible end of wave (downwave A is almost to the pip equal to downwave B)

I believe there's a divergence on 4H as well, but things on a lower timeframe are probably not much to go on.

Should I have moved this to BE just after the quick move up? On the close of bars there wasn't any time to do that however. It is heading back up to my entry
once again, I'm not sure if one should always expect strong momentum in the right direction after the pin, and if none is there, get out?

It has also passed the fibs by a fair amount. Would that cause any of your alarm bells to ring, or is it ok as long as there are other confluences?

Is my weekly pivot lines drawn in where you would have TD?

Many questions, I hope you don't mind. Thanks.
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Old Nov 27, 2007, 5:21pm   #759
Joined Jan 2007
Subject: Trade Alert GBPUSD
Date: Tue, 27 Nov 2007 15:59:56 +0000 (GMT)
50 pips in profit already!
Pity I missed that. Did anyone else get it?
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Old Nov 27, 2007, 5:27pm   #760
Joined Jan 2007
Entered USDCAD short from 0.9962 from hourly pin off long term S/R zone. Stoploss up at 0.9990 - risk 30 pips or so. First target 0.9920.
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Old Nov 27, 2007, 5:34pm   #761
Joined Oct 2007
Hi ER2

Everyone can see the S/R differently. I am also attaching my view to this with pivots drawn to it, TD, can correct on both that charts if anything is missing. There is a good Fib confluence in my view.

Fxbee
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Old Nov 27, 2007, 5:49pm   #762
Joined Feb 2007
FWIW, I would like to see a better looking pin. That is, the pin "head" to be formed within the bottom third of the bar preceding it. I am a newbie at this method so please take with a pinch of salt. TD can elaborate further. All other factors look good to me though.

Tafita
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Old Nov 27, 2007, 7:14pm   #763
Joined Jan 2007
Quote:
Originally Posted by lurkerlurker View Post
Entered USDCAD short from 0.9962 from hourly pin off long term S/R zone. Stoploss up at 0.9990 - risk 30 pips or so. First target 0.9920.
Out flat.
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Old Nov 27, 2007, 8:10pm   #764
Joined Jan 2007
USDJPY Pin

Had a limit in to sell 108.57 but ended up selling 108.55 instead, so I've got an entry slightly below the break of the pin. First target around 108.30, but it could go lower so this is a tricky one. Anyway, short 55 with stop of 90.
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Old Nov 27, 2007, 8:42pm   #765
Joined Nov 2005
Quote:
Originally Posted by tafita View Post
FWIW, I would like to see a better looking pin. That is, the pin "head" to be formed within the bottom third of the bar preceding it. I am a newbie at this method so please take with a pinch of salt. TD can elaborate further. All other factors look good to me though.

Tafita
Good point.. thought the pin wasn't great looking but also that my reasons for going long were good enough to not be too bothered about that. Maybe they weren't. We'll see how it goes, although that might not shed enough light on whether I was right or wrong to go in.
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