Making Money Trading

This is a discussion on Making Money Trading within the First Steps forums, part of the Reception category; Originally Posted by Splitlink That's TA all over, though. The importance is consistency in the way you do it. Pins ...

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Old Jan 6, 2008, 4:01pm   #1241
Joined Jan 2007
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Originally Posted by Splitlink View Post
That's TA all over, though. The importance is consistency in the way you do it. Pins keep you from overtrading, but so do other systems and there are many excellent trades that are not taken because the signal that one is waiting for was not given.
This is very true. I think it is better to have multiple setups. However, I do not think that any new traders should try adding a second setup until they are entirely comfortable, consistent, and profitable with the first.

I trade pin bars exclusively (I also trade the news a few times a year, but that isn't relevant here). I don't use indicators, I don't use other price action setups, inside bars, DBLHC/DBHLC, volume analysis, order book, T&S, fundamentals etc. I have a trading plan which I need to follow until the middle of February. That will mark 3 months of consistency (I hope - I stepped off the path for the first time during this 3 month challenge on Friday).

If I am consistently profitable come mid February with the pin bars, I may look at increasing my account size. However, I will still be trading only pin bars. A few months after that, I will start paper trading a second setup alongside the pin bars. After I am consistent with the pin bars, I will learn some more about price action to give me criteria for a second setup. I should also have improved my pin bar exits.

I notice that TD trades quite a few setups. He has taught us about inside bars for continuation, congestion zones / breakouts, and DBLHC/DBHLC setups. My goal is to have quite a few profitable setups I can trade. In a few years, I should be comfortable trading decent size with multiple setups - this way I should capture more of the profitable moves which wouldn't have been triggered with just pin bars.

However, the important thing is to perfect one edge at a time. I'm taking next week off, which wasn't in the original plan. I will have less experience of the markets because of it, and I'll have to finish my 3 month consistency challenge a week later than expected. However, if I can get to February without having any more days like Friday, and taking better and more controlled exits I will be doing very well indeed.
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Old Jan 6, 2008, 4:51pm   #1242
Joined May 2007
Quote:
Originally Posted by lurkerlurker View Post
Yes, I think we should. Pin bars come up here, but the purpose of this thread is for TD to teach us all about trading, and posting too many live pin bar calls pollutes that. It is important for TD to post the setups he takes, but what we do is less relevant to the thread.

I've started a thread where we can post live pin bar calls. I'll be adding my website to that soon too!
great stuff Lurker. I hope you don't mind the odd index pin being posted for consideration. not to mention pork bellies' pins ( I don't trade them I just like telling people when they ask what I do- - "oh yeah there's money in pork bellies") .. really there is no reason to limit the thread to any instrument group.
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Old Jan 6, 2008, 4:56pm   #1243
Joined May 2007
Quote:
Originally Posted by trader_dante View Post
I am looking to go long on EUR/JPY.

This is not a recommendation to trade.

How will I enter this trade?

I will enter on a break of the high of the daily pin.

My stop would be one tick beneath the low of the pin.

Why I am taking this trade?

Chart 1: Daily TF shows that price has hit a significant support/resistance pivot and round number.

Chart 2 Close up of the daily TF shows a pin bar formation.

How will I manage the trade?

Chart 3 shows the significant s/r pivots that lie overhead. These may cause price to stall or reverse and as a result, if the price were to approach them I would watch it very carefully and adjust stops based on the price action that occurs.

This chart also shows a lower pivot that the price is currently sitting on. This is at 161.23. Since there is a lot of risk on this trade (199 pips) and this is a significant pivot, I aim to move my stop up quickly on this trade to the approximate area of the left eye which is beneath the pivot.

Chart 4 shows the potential fib levels that occur on the way up. Note again that price may stall or reverse at these. This is going to be tricky to judge as the zone I have drawn a square round is going to be choppy from the look of the previous price action in it. Stop adjustment will be based on price action.

The 61 level has confluence with the first major s/r pivot at 164.04. This is going to be an important area.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
At the time of writing this, the market still has just under two hours to trade. If the price "closes" below the low of the left eye at 1.6097, then the trade for me, is invalidated.

Please note that as the market still has longer to trade, the order will NOT be placed until shortly before midnight UK time.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Always have a plan.
I don't think anyone has had reason to trade this yet, it has not reached TD's buy price one point over the pin, and it has not reached Rathcool's sell price (one point below the pin)

Is this pin bar void now or is it still in play?

(I have had a nibble of the price action here but I was not following any rules)
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Old Jan 6, 2008, 4:59pm   #1244
Joined Jun 2004
Quote:
Originally Posted by Splitlink View Post
Hi Phil,

No sure that I understand what you mean, there. As I see it the pin is the highest point of a trend, with a short body inside the previous bar. I think that it must be used with other criteria--a bounce off something that you already follow. It is true that they disappear, frequently, from one time frame to another and it is possible to find that there is no signal given, but the price bounces just the same, leaving you cursing for not taking the trade.

That's TA all over, though. The importance is consistency in the way you do it. Pins keep you from overtrading, but so do other systems and there are many excellent trades that are not taken because the signal that one is waiting for was not given.

Split
What I meant was that the formation of a pin bar would seem to depend on when the candlesticks start. F'rinstance, if say you have a 5 min chart beginning at 10am, it will look different from a 5 min chart starting at 10:02.30, or indeed any other moment not 5 min, even though it's still using the same time frame.
Possibly related to the same thing, I find the charts supplied by SB cos (which mostly come fromt he same source) are fairly useless in candlestick mode.
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Old Jan 6, 2008, 5:14pm   #1245
Joined Nov 2001
Quote:
Originally Posted by Phil Mibbutz View Post
What I meant was that the formation of a pin bar would seem to depend on when the candlesticks start. F'rinstance, if say you have a 5 min chart beginning at 10am, it will look different from a 5 min chart starting at 10:02.30, or indeed any other moment not 5 min, even though it's still using the same time frame.
Possibly related to the same thing, I find the charts supplied by SB cos (which mostly come fromt he same source) are fairly useless in candlestick mode.
TD uses a 1 hour chart, minimum, and I have had a look at the lower time frames but the lower they go, the more pins stick out so I decided to try for the 1 hour, too. The better quality pins seem to be the ones on a higher time frame.
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Old Jan 6, 2008, 5:18pm   #1246
Joined Jan 2007
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Originally Posted by shortorlong View Post
great stuff Lurker. I hope you don't mind the odd index pin being posted for consideration. not to mention pork bellies' pins ( I don't trade them I just like telling people when they ask what I do- - "oh yeah there's money in pork bellies") .. really there is no reason to limit the thread to any instrument group.
I don't touch pork bellies- I know nothing about them, the underlying is illiquid, and the SB firms would make me a price wide enough to sail the fleet through. I'm happy enough telling people "oh yeah, there's money in foreign exchange".

I don't mind the odd index pin being posted actually. I lost 10% of my account on a failed Crude pin on Friday and only ended the day / week up thanks to an index trade!
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Old Jan 6, 2008, 5:25pm   #1247
Joined Jan 2007
extract from T2W trading plan

"To assess the probability of success of a trading strategy we must start by defining the trade setup. This needs to be extremely precise, unambiguous and crystal clear. This is vital in order to spot the setup in real time, trading with real money. Once the setup is defined, it can then be back and forward tested to see if the probability of its success outweighs the probability of its failure."

Hi TD

I have put in this post as a reality check nothing more, the thread in my opinion is very good and teaches a lot of very good stuff etc to new traders and some older ones.

Thanks TD.

There are still to many grey areas IMO, some of them caused by posts and questions etc along the way, that is to be expected.

Everyone likes to have a say or look at things perhaps from other positions etc no harm there.

Split gave me a good link, I no you posted it before but no harm again on a thread this long

Pin bars introduction

Timsk posted T2W plan template on another thread,

Thanks Tim, I for one think its better than mine so will be or am re-attending to my own more complete plan.

I think this belongs here to at this stage of the thread to.

I would just advise all interested in method outlined by TD to do their own research, their own back or forward testing etc to make the method their own.

Again thanks TD and good luck in your new job

Andy
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Old Jan 6, 2008, 5:26pm   #1248
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shortorlong View Post
I don't think anyone has had reason to trade this yet, it has not reached TD's buy price one point over the pin, and it has not reached Rathcool's sell price (one point below the pin)

Is this pin bar void now or is it still in play?
Hi shortorlong,

Friday's bar is an inside bar and the s/r pivot that the pin bounced off has held so I still have my order in.
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