How to resolve Unknowable Uncertainty?

This is a discussion on How to resolve Unknowable Uncertainty? within the First Steps forums, part of the Reception category; Originally Posted by adrianjm Hi Atilla, I never said I wrong wrong 90% of the time. I presently below to ...

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Old Dec 8, 2011, 7:31pm   #16
 
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Re: How to resolve Unknowable Uncertainty?

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Originally Posted by adrianjm View Post
Hi Atilla,

I never said I wrong wrong 90% of the time. I presently below to the 90% of traders who are unsuccessful.

Thanks for the coments.

Ok good luck Adrian. All I can say is it is a long journey and after 7 years I hate and loath the markets. I have several systems and they pretty much all work. The spanner in the works is thy self.

One of the simple ones with no bearing on anything is counting squares. Not interested even in levels. Move two boxes up buy. Move two boxes down sell. It is effectively scalping but system does work. Works with just about any instrument too.

Having dissasociated my self from my ego and thinking I understand or comprehend or predict what's going to happen has been my biggest hurdle. I was told this by past legends here but I recall arguing with them. Now don't care for much what the markets do at all.

I am interested in current affairs and economics but that's about it for FA. It's all about TA. Good luck and don't give up.


Old beliefs [may] not lead you to new cheese.
by Spencer Johnson, M.D.
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Old Dec 8, 2011, 8:37pm   #17
Joined Jun 2011
Re: How to resolve Unknowable Uncertainty?

adrianjm started this thread
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Originally Posted by Atilla View Post
Ok good luck Adrian. All I can say is it is a long journey and after 7 years I hate and loath the markets. I have several systems and they pretty much all work. The spanner in the works is thy self.

One of the simple ones with no bearing on anything is counting squares. Not interested even in levels. Move two boxes up buy. Move two boxes down sell. It is effectively scalping but system does work. Works with just about any instrument too.

Having dissasociated my self from my ego and thinking I understand or comprehend or predict what's going to happen has been my biggest hurdle. I was told this by past legends here but I recall arguing with them. Now don't care for much what the markets do at all.

I am interested in current affairs and economics but that's about it for FA. It's all about TA. Good luck and don't give up.


Old beliefs [may] not lead you to new cheese.
by Spencer Johnson, M.D.
It's a tough journey, and I empathise with you man. Wish you luck in your future endeavours.

Adrian
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Old Dec 17, 2011, 12:00pm   #18
Joined Jun 2011
Re: How to resolve Unknowable Uncertainty?

adrianjm started this thread In my search for why I have not been doing particulary well as a Chart daytrader, I have noticed a couple of things about my entries, and how they relate to the way markets work. I thought I would share in the hope someone finds it of benefit.

First of all, I need to be able to do something different to the many thousands of other people trying to make (take) money out of the markets. All these other guys want my moula as much (maybe more!) as I want theirs. So I have to be able to do something uncommon.

The other day I was in a trade, and like so many times, price just sits there at my entry, jiggling about, doing essentially nothing. It then either jiggles a bit more and stops me out, or enough for me to lose confidence. Then, happily, it may jiggle a bit in my direction and I get out at BE, or BE plus a tiny bit.

Why does this happen so often? How is it that given all the big moves lately, I always happen to get in right when price goes nowhere?

Then I realised one of the things I read many moons ago. Time is a huge factor in trading. I am not sure of the actual number, but if you spent time looking, I believe you would see that most of the time, price goes nowhere (relatively speaking). The big moves happen over the shortest periods. That's why when I put on a trade, there is a high probability that I have picked the molasses period, because I have been trading when I want to trade, not when the market tells me there is a valid entry point

And for me, now, that valid entry point has to be the frothy fast moving bit, either the tail (fade) or the breakout that has just shown itself as being an unreasonable price, a place where buyers and sellers disagree, and thus price moves rapidly to the point where there is agreement. It may all happen very quickly, and its quite often the place that presents itself as the toughest entry point. If it wasn't, it wouldn't be a good entry point (since everyone would feel good about entering here).

So in future, my entries are going judged not only on whether price moves to my target, but whether it did so within the time alloted to the trade. If I expect to see a bounce in the next x minutes and enter, but I don't get the bounce, but price drags itself to my target over a long period of time, then essentially my hypothesis was incorrect, and the fact that price hit my target could be nothing more than luck. I think this is now an important part of reviewing and refining my entries.

This is especially true, I think when reading the order flow. If you expect a few ticks or points in the next minute, and your trade is still open 5 minutes later, did you really read the action correctly?

Good trading to you!

Adrian
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Old Dec 17, 2011, 2:32pm   #19
Joined Nov 2001
Re: How to resolve Unknowable Uncertainty?

I, through being overconfident, took out too much from my account for Christmas, full expecting to be able to build up the remainder. In fact, the idea is to be able to take the next amount out in March, when the first crop of birthdays arrive. Being retired, I don't want to, particularly, hit it rich( although it would be nice) being more interested in trading as a profitable pastime and with no worries.

This philosophy has been the difference between me and lots of others who post on this forum.

I had a losing streak that has taken me very close to the margin requirement, to the extent that I have switched from Footsie to SP, just to be able to trade while waiting for money to arrive back in my account. I have a suspicion of credit cards and do not use anything except good, oldfashioned, cheques so I have to struggle until the New Year.

To get to the nuts and bolts of this post, it is amazing how getting close to getting stopped out by margin sharpens the mind. Anyone who enters the market with thousands is likely to lose the lot, whereas he, who has little, but with not much chance of being able to start again, pays more attention to what he is doing. At least, I do. In two careful trades, yesterday, I ended the day in a better position but what would have happened if I had lost? . In actual fact,in real life, nothing much.

So my advice to you is trade that way. Don't put more than a minimum into the trading basket and sweat like hell to make it grow. It is excellent training and it has made me pay more attention to what I do to stay in the game. Putting a lot into an account and, when you lose, opening another big trade is a dangerous game to play.
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