What Happens When You Try to Time the Market?

This is a discussion on What Happens When You Try to Time the Market? within the Educational Resources forums, part of the Commercial category; Originally Posted by dbphoenix Anecdotes and opinion are not evidence. One market timing model is provided in the Wyckoff thread, ...

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Old Jan 21, 2017, 4:04pm   #16
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Originally Posted by dbphoenix View Post
Anecdotes and opinion are not evidence. One market timing model is provided in the Wyckoff thread, but there's little interest in it.
Anecdotes of market timing success or failure are evidence, just not quantitative evidence for a scientific study, which this discussion would not qualify as.
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Old Jan 22, 2017, 1:05pm   #17
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Originally Posted by tomorton View Post
sigmund1 - Its an old story that the individual can't beat the market.

But the people who say this is impossible depend on borrowing money from those individuals. So naturally they're not going to say you can do it yourself, make more profit and save yourself a lot of commission.

After all, imagine Ford or General Motors or BMW suggesting we build our own cars.
And yet, people do......
I've looked and I've looked but can't find one, not one!

That was, someone to TAKE THE BET.

Warren Buffett, 8 years ago made a Million Dollar Bet with anyone on the planet.

To win the bet all they had to do was out perform the SP500 over the next 10 years.

I've looked but I can't find any private trader who took the bet on.

Now, that's gotta tell you something!
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Old Jan 22, 2017, 2:47pm   #18
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Originally Posted by sigmund1 View Post
I've looked and I've looked but can't find one, not one!

That was, someone to TAKE THE BET.

Warren Buffett, 8 years ago made a Million Dollar Bet with anyone on the planet.

To win the bet all they had to do was out perform the SP500 over the next 10 years.

I've looked but I can't find any private trader who took the bet on.

Now, that's gotta tell you something!

Doesn't tell me anything. I never listen to anything Warren Buffett says, its irrelevant to what I do and believe. I believe a profit can be made from trading. Do you believe it can't?
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Old Jan 22, 2017, 3:24pm   #19
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Doesn't tell me anything. I never listen to anything Warren Buffett says, its irrelevant to what I do and believe. I believe a profit can be made from trading. Do you believe it can't?
A profit is always made from trading, by either the brokerage or the entity taking the other side of the trade, that's not the question, nor is this just a matter of believing a certain thing and wish fulfillment. The question is whether consistent and high (outperforming stock indexes) returns are possible from trying to time the market by trading.

If you read the Soros article I linked to his long-term holdings (investments) were up signifigantly, counteracting his post-Trump trading boner, this fits my theory that most traders have alternative and consistent sources of income (which trading is not). Most traders wouldn't have the capital or diversified assets (non-speculative liquid assets) to recover from such a stupid trade if they lost 4% of their entire net worth in a month of trading.

There is no evidence that this can be done and the ones who push for propagating this meme that it can be done have a vested interest in it, i.e. they are selling something related to trading or they are deluding themselves with false beliefs to justify their gambling habit.
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Old Jan 22, 2017, 3:48pm   #20
 
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Originally Posted by petetrades View Post
I have lost £20,000-80,000 each of the many years I have daytraded futures or stocks, commissions to the brokerage got from me around £5,000-7,000 per year. Even when I'm profitable during some years (years always end as negative even if positive) I feel like I'm treading water or I need to make more and more to make up for the expenses due to how much it costs just to daytrade futures.
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Originally Posted by darktone View Post
some questions:-

1) How many years have you been trading?
2) In ES, what kinda size do you trade relative to acc? (notional / acc)
3) Have you ever ever learned to 'manage risk with size' as Don puts it?
4) What does the sum of money lost mean to you?
5) Do you look for confirmation before you trade?
6) Do you like to use stops to manage risk?
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1. 5+ years
2. Maximum margin w/deep discount futures bucketshops to the default high margins w/more conservative brokerages.
3. No
4. Everything at the moment, hoping to get back on my feet with a profitable year once I find some money.
5. Sometimes, this can make me too late and guarantee a loss.
6. I don't like to, but ES has less stop runs than CL, so I do use stops on the ES at times but am quite aware this is a magnet for HFT.
This is more likely the source of your problem than vendors.

You are responsible for your failures, no one else.

Grow up.
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Old Jan 22, 2017, 3:58pm   #21
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This is more likely the source of your problem than vendors.

You are responsible for your failures, no one else.

Grow up.
Keep selling the dream, buddy
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Old Jan 22, 2017, 4:29pm   #22
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Doesn't tell me anything. I never listen to anything Warren Buffett says, its irrelevant to what I do and believe. I believe a profit can be made from trading. Do you believe it can't?
I see some confusion.

Just sometimes, people who listen learn something!

Buffett made a ONE MILLION DOLLAR BET that no-body can out perform the SP500 over a 10 year period.

Buffett put his money where is mouth is.

What's difficult to understand?
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Old Jan 22, 2017, 4:41pm   #23
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Originally Posted by sigmund1 View Post
I see some confusion.

Just sometimes, people who listen learn something!

Buffett made a ONE MILLION DOLLAR BET that no-body can out perform the SP500 over a 10 year period.

Buffett put his money where is mouth is.

What's difficult to understand?


I'm not concerned what Warren Buffett believes or does or says. I was trying to elicit what you believe about private trading. Still interested.
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Old Jan 22, 2017, 9:30pm   #24
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I'm not concerned what Warren Buffett believes or does or says. I was trying to elicit what you believe about private trading. Still interested.
Most traders lose money, some traders make money.
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Old Jan 22, 2017, 11:18pm   #25
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Most traders lose money, some traders make money.

Well, we can agree on that.
Same goes for the restaurant business for example. And pubs in the UK are closing at the rate of 4 a week. (Good riddance.)

Makes private trading seem less risky maybe.
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Old Jan 23, 2017, 12:02am   #26
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Keep selling the dream, buddy
I agree with the Db this time.....How could you lose so much money without having a sound proof system?

You were gambling more than trading, hoping for the better.

Next time you try, trade small until you get a grasp of it (probably you will never as many as you said) and not before at least 6 months of proofs, treat your $100 like it is $100000.

If you cannot make money from 100 you certainly will not make it from 100000

Last edited by Fugazsy; Jan 23, 2017 at 12:08am.
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Old Jan 23, 2017, 4:08am   #27
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I agree with the Db this time.....How could you lose so much money without having a sound proof system?

You were gambling more than trading, hoping for the better.

Next time you try, trade small until you get a grasp of it (probably you will never as many as you said) and not before at least 6 months of proofs, treat your $100 like it is $100000.

If you cannot make money from 100 you certainly will not make it from 100000
No - I needed the income when I was trading to finance my financial goals, while I was working 40-60 hour weeks and dealing with that stress to finance this endeavour. Before you and dbphoenix judge me, let's see you put balls to the wall and see how you do instead of selling reheated non-copyrighted ideas to new traders. Let's see how long you last walking on hot coals. if I wanted to do this for supplementary income while profiteering off the backs off others I could have easily found a small edge, which is not what I was looking for, what my ethics permit, or what the popular literature or trading education culture suggests is the goal of day trading and timing the markets.
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Old Jan 23, 2017, 5:29am   #28
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No - I needed the income when I was trading to finance my financial goals, while I was working 40-60 hour weeks and dealing with that stress to finance this endeavour. Before you and dbphoenix judge me, let's see you put balls to the wall and see how you do instead of selling reheated non-copyrighted ideas to new traders. Let's see how long you last walking on hot coals. if I wanted to do this for supplementary income while profiteering off the backs off others I could have easily found a small edge, which is not what I was looking for, what my ethics permit, or what the popular literature or trading education culture suggests is the goal of day trading and timing the markets.
I am not selling anything. I an not judging you. I was just giving you a different perspective. Personally I never lost serious money even when I was learning due to sensible money management.

Words like "needed" "stress" "walking on hot coals" do not go hand in hand with retail trading. Market are fluid and you got rigid.

If you need the money and you have not got the appropriate knowledge in trading and in yourself to deal with the market I suggest you do not trade, robbing a bank in central London will give you a better chance...

Of course this is only my perception.

I wish you all the best.

Last edited by Fugazsy; Jan 23, 2017 at 8:36am.
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Old Jan 24, 2017, 12:05pm   #29
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I am not selling anything. I an not judging you. I was just giving you a different perspective. Personally I never lost serious money even when I was learning due to sensible money management.

Words like "needed" "stress" "walking on hot coals" do not go hand in hand with retail trading. Market are fluid and you got rigid.

If you need the money and you have not got the appropriate knowledge in trading and in yourself to deal with the market I suggest you do not trade, robbing a bank in central London will give you a better chance...

Of course this is only my perception.

I wish you all the best.
How could I be gambling and hoping if commissions and fees made up half my losses in several of my losing years? The fact is, retail trading is not a stable source of income, you and I have both now presented evidence confirming this fact. If dbphoenix can offer up some overdue P&L statements then maybe there will be an iota of evidence to the contrary.
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Old Feb 1, 2017, 4:56pm   #30
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As far as I can see, this article refers to "average" traders/investors and there is no further breakdown.
To demonstrate that the average is poor in relation to indices is fairly meaningless as there are plenty of us who do rather better than the "average". To put it another way, those who have developed and learnt enough to trade for a living, by a self-selecting process of consistent success, are rather better than indices and funds, the returns on which are laughable. Maybe ok for very long term investing if you are sufficiently diversified, but still the returns are poor in comparison.
It's a bit like those academics who believe in EMH and can "prove" it. Skills, knowledge and experience shatter the academic theories in the real world.
Ok, post your P&L brokerage statement(s) from 2016, you can use an image editor to obscure the last 2-6 digits of your account number, thanks in advance.
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