herm4n said:
If you are going to try it for a couple 'seasons' - I don't think so!!!
If you are going to commit to doing it for 15 ++ years - I have absolutely no doubt! I don't think - I know!
Narrow it down to plus/minus 25 setups that you are going to take each 'season' no matter what, come hell or high water, and take them EVERY time and clearly define your risk EVERY time. Over the years as you get to know your setups you will develop appropriate intuitive discretion in position management and position sizing adjustments, etc. It only takes one or two great years, and maybe one monster year and you're set...
Timing is everything - so be there every time!
All the best,
ZDO
jxntntrader
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herm4n said:
See:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=14499
www.mrci.com --> take a look at their free resources
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?p=230446#post230446
-oo0(GoldTrader)
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general conditions
general conditions
Hybrid Thread
Aloha Herm,
How are things in wonderful Indonesia. When I traded Gold futures, out of there some years ago, I had a hard time getting information. Jakarta had papers, but they were far and few between on Bali. The Internet should take care of that.
These boards and Elite are way ahead of you. Search around here and on Amazon. Get back to us with questions. You really have to use everything that you know. Study general conditions then find a spread to take advantage of it. email me and I will send you a copy of “Reminiscences of a stock operator.”
I will post something here about using tools to enter a trade. There is no reason at all why you cannot soon make successful trades using Jerry’s charts and common sense.
Have a nice sweltering summer!
general conditions
Hybrid Thread
Aloha Herm,
How are things in wonderful Indonesia. When I traded Gold futures, out of there some years ago, I had a hard time getting information. Jakarta had papers, but they were far and few between on Bali. The Internet should take care of that.
To directly answer your question, If you take a trade with 100% win, and the thing goes bonkers on you. It will still have a 93% win ratio and you will have a 100% loss. So, learn by reading, before you burn by doing.
These boards and Elite are way ahead of you. Search around here and on Amazon. Get back to us with questions. You really have to use everything that you know. Study general conditions then find a spread to take advantage of it. email me and I will send you a copy of “Reminiscences of a stock operator.”
I will post something here about using tools to enter a trade. There is no reason at all why you cannot soon make successful trades using Jerry’s charts and common sense.
To paraphrase ZDO, it only takes a few great trades a year (a monster like the current Natural Gas), and you're set...
Calendar spreads run generally below a thousand. Which is about the minimum you should have per spread? Riskier spreads need more. When you subscribe to the Weekly Spread Report, exchange minimum margins are suggested in the reports. In general they are a pain to find on line. Ross may have them. I don’t think Bernstein does.
Have a nice sweltering summer!
Joe Ross Strategy to Seasonal Spread Trading
On Seasonal Spread Trading book by Joe Ross, He uses enter by technical analysis and exit by chart pettern and combined by MRCI ! I think it is the best strategy !!
How many of you have ever used that startegy??
Is it better than just blindly follow MRCI seasonal spread data??
Have a nice trade.......
On Seasonal Spread Trading book by Joe Ross, He uses enter by technical analysis and exit by chart pettern and combined by MRCI ! I think it is the best strategy !!
How many of you have ever used that startegy??
Is it better than just blindly follow MRCI seasonal spread data??
Have a nice trade.......
Hi Herm4n
here is a useful resource for spread margins: www.lfgfutures.com/backtool/margins.htm I would still check with your broker for current requirements as they can vary.
I think you have the right Idea about your strategy for trade entries, use MRCI research for highlighting potential trade ideas based on seasonal & correlation patterns and then zoom in to the current price chart for timing your entry based on what you see.
I have found Joe's methods to work very well, you do have to pay attention to what the chart is telling you aside from the seasonal patterns i.e. direction of trend, congestion areas etc... rather than just entering blindly on 1-2-3's and RH's.
here is a useful resource for spread margins: www.lfgfutures.com/backtool/margins.htm I would still check with your broker for current requirements as they can vary.
I think you have the right Idea about your strategy for trade entries, use MRCI research for highlighting potential trade ideas based on seasonal & correlation patterns and then zoom in to the current price chart for timing your entry based on what you see.
I have found Joe's methods to work very well, you do have to pay attention to what the chart is telling you aside from the seasonal patterns i.e. direction of trend, congestion areas etc... rather than just entering blindly on 1-2-3's and RH's.
herm4n,
re: “Is it better than just blindly follow MRCI seasonal spread data??”
For the first few years I would say - yes.
Seasonals exhibit patterns coming into the entry date / setup that can be used for ‘context’. So on years that do not show ‘normal’ seasonal pattern, I still take the trade – but with smaller initial position size. No matter what I ‘blindly’ enter the positions – then open my eyes to manage them and protect capital with increasing aggression as the ‘season’ goes forward.
Ross (etc) waits for the seasonal to ‘setup’ strength (with 123, tte etc) before entry. In my experience, if the current pattern is correlating well seasonally, entering on weakness is fine, entering on strength is also fine… entering ‘on time’ is what’s really important.
The strategy is not about fine tuning this entry this trade this year – the strategy is to take the same trade over and over for many years in a row. If you’re thinking you’ll just try out some seasonal trades, be aware that you are also being ‘tried out’ at the same time… It’s much better in the LONG RUN to make a 20 YEAR PLAN and endure the occasional and transient discomforts that inevitably accompany development and change.
Have a good weekend,
zdo
re: “Is it better than just blindly follow MRCI seasonal spread data??”
For the first few years I would say - yes.
Seasonals exhibit patterns coming into the entry date / setup that can be used for ‘context’. So on years that do not show ‘normal’ seasonal pattern, I still take the trade – but with smaller initial position size. No matter what I ‘blindly’ enter the positions – then open my eyes to manage them and protect capital with increasing aggression as the ‘season’ goes forward.
Ross (etc) waits for the seasonal to ‘setup’ strength (with 123, tte etc) before entry. In my experience, if the current pattern is correlating well seasonally, entering on weakness is fine, entering on strength is also fine… entering ‘on time’ is what’s really important.
The strategy is not about fine tuning this entry this trade this year – the strategy is to take the same trade over and over for many years in a row. If you’re thinking you’ll just try out some seasonal trades, be aware that you are also being ‘tried out’ at the same time… It’s much better in the LONG RUN to make a 20 YEAR PLAN and endure the occasional and transient discomforts that inevitably accompany development and change.
Have a good weekend,
zdo
-oo0(GoldTrader)
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Margin formula
How do they figure margin?herm4n said:
herm and gold,
Exchange minimum (for outright and spread) margins are determine by comparing historical volatility, price, and interest rates to current volatility, price, and interest rates. (weighted in same order). Very generally, for outrights you can expect a margin change every 20% (approx) price change. Margins ‘trend’ in that they tend to continue to rise or fall instead of bouncing up and down. Also, they tend to rise faster than they fall and when they do get to extremes they tend to come off the highs more readily than they rebound from extreme lows – ie sometimes extremely low margins can persist for longer than the ‘data’ would indicate.
The margins offered by individual houses, ib’s, etc. are a whole different story. A percentage offer / use exchange minimums, but most quite arbitrarily created their own margin lists.
Note that all of the above is generalization – ie rules of thumb.
In the long run, you’ll be much better off creating your own levels of leverage instead of ‘maximizing’ margin – ie have more than adequate capitalization for all positions you’re going to enter and only load up to allowable leverage in REALLY special situations.
All the best,
zdo
Exchange minimum (for outright and spread) margins are determine by comparing historical volatility, price, and interest rates to current volatility, price, and interest rates. (weighted in same order). Very generally, for outrights you can expect a margin change every 20% (approx) price change. Margins ‘trend’ in that they tend to continue to rise or fall instead of bouncing up and down. Also, they tend to rise faster than they fall and when they do get to extremes they tend to come off the highs more readily than they rebound from extreme lows – ie sometimes extremely low margins can persist for longer than the ‘data’ would indicate.
The margins offered by individual houses, ib’s, etc. are a whole different story. A percentage offer / use exchange minimums, but most quite arbitrarily created their own margin lists.
Note that all of the above is generalization – ie rules of thumb.
In the long run, you’ll be much better off creating your own levels of leverage instead of ‘maximizing’ margin – ie have more than adequate capitalization for all positions you’re going to enter and only load up to allowable leverage in REALLY special situations.
All the best,
zdo
Yeah a cushion is highly recommended, ZDO is precisely correct on that front.
Personally, I allocate a % of account size toward Initial Margin when evaluating what size to trade.
Initial vs. Maintenance (i don't believe anyone answered this in full)
Initial = the amount needed in your account to 'initiate' the position
Maintenance = the amount (less than Initial) to 'maintain' the position
Personally, I allocate a % of account size toward Initial Margin when evaluating what size to trade.
Initial vs. Maintenance (i don't believe anyone answered this in full)
Initial = the amount needed in your account to 'initiate' the position
Maintenance = the amount (less than Initial) to 'maintain' the position
SeasonalTrader
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Seasonal Spread Resources
For those looking for other sources for seasonal spread ideas and data here are 2 other firms:
Seasonex.com - Seasonal Futures Trading Powertools (Including Commodity, Financial, and Index Futures and Interdelivery and Intermarket Spreads) - they cover a dozen or so spreads with entry/exit date analysis
Futures Research Corp - they cover about 100 different spreads, and provide charts as well as a list of historically successful trades as ideas for you to look at
For those looking for other sources for seasonal spread ideas and data here are 2 other firms:
Seasonex.com - Seasonal Futures Trading Powertools (Including Commodity, Financial, and Index Futures and Interdelivery and Intermarket Spreads) - they cover a dozen or so spreads with entry/exit date analysis
Futures Research Corp - they cover about 100 different spreads, and provide charts as well as a list of historically successful trades as ideas for you to look at
I get excellent seasonal spread charts from -
seasonalfuturescharts.com
seasonalfuturescharts.com
Seasonal trader is useful too (www.seasonaltrader.com).
I would never follow their signals (or MRCI's) blindly. Tried it for a while, and it failed miserably.
But combine seasonals with commodities news, charts, and a service like CRB trendtrader (as a kind of second opinion - this gives positions on all contracts and is therefore useful not only for straight futures trading but also spreads) and you have something which can be quite powerful.
I would never follow their signals (or MRCI's) blindly. Tried it for a while, and it failed miserably.
But combine seasonals with commodities news, charts, and a service like CRB trendtrader (as a kind of second opinion - this gives positions on all contracts and is therefore useful not only for straight futures trading but also spreads) and you have something which can be quite powerful.
-oo0(GoldTrader)
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