Elliott wave analysis and Grains, Oil and Metals

Hi,

I'll post here my point of view about the price action of some commodities that I follow.

I'll be happy if you share your analysis and forecasts here with me.

Good luck

I think COCOA is about to reverse and to give us a nice bearish opportunity. Here's my 8h analysis



Here you can see some more details.

GOLD - 1m chart

could be nice bullish opportunity, if we see the confirmation breakthrough.

GOLD - 1m chart

That's what happened after the forecast. Target reached.

COFFEE and COCOA

Elliott wave analysis and mid term perspective.

WTI Crude Oil

The market optimism has embraced almost everyone, and that's why we start to talk and warn about a coming top.

Cotton

To guess exactly where the top is could be difficult, but to watch for a reversal's signs could be more useful.

Coffee

COFFEE is making its first steps down of a larger downtrend.

Gold

Forecasted of January 29. Short term corrective pattern

The following charts are part of a Financial Report, posted on the web site. It shows my mid term perspective about the world's major markets, such as US Dollar, Dow Jones Industrial Average, GODL, and WTI Crude Oil.

Mark Twain's intuition of facts lies and statistics :

Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are more pliable.
Get your facts first, and then you can distort them as much as you please
A lie can travel halfway around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes.
There are 3 kinds of lies : Lies, Damned lies and statistics.

Do not wholeheartedly trust charts, patterns and statistics without due deliberation.

Know the Italian accountant N Elliott lost his entire life savings in the NY stockmarket after he retired and migrated to the US ? He then spent the rest of his life to mull this so-called wave principle thinggy before his death. It managed to join all the knots and dots in the market past and made them fit in one go on his drawing board.

Then came the greater fool, in the name of Robert Precther, a self-proclaimed diciple of N Elliott : Remember this young guy predicted a supernova of bull rages on the eve of that infamous Oct 1987 crash ? But that was not his mworst. After the crash, he was again conned by this same Principle to predict an imminent period of Dark Ages in the American financial landscape : Dow would plunge below, way below, 3 digits. What actually happened ? Albeit some corrections along the path, Dow moved right up from there almost unstoppably and pierced the 10,000 level for the first time in history on Mar 29 1999.

Your homeworks and your own intuition are utmost important. Trust your feel, Follow your nose.

those elliot wave counts are awfull!

Copper

As precious metals are extending their corrective recovery, we can see impulses on smaller degree. Although that situation is not very appropriate for trading by newbies, there are some opportunities that deserve attention. One of the problems here is how to set up a reachable targets, when we expect to see an impulsive rally, having in mind that this impulse is part of a corrective pattern.

That forecast was published on March 30. One week later the market reached its target for wave iii.

In a corrective patterns impulses happen to be quite tricky to forecast and difficult to target. In such a situation every analyst or trader needs to observe and explore every single market move on a smallest time frames, searching for confirmations and leads for a reachable targets.

Gee marketinside, who swallows that load of tripe?

Wheat

One of the predicting's biggest advantages is the stability of knowing the perspective and having enough time to prepare your strategy. Let's do that with one of the most important grain market - Wheat.



On that weekly chart I've tried to set up a scenarios, which is based on technical analysis and Elliott wave Principle. I need to see a little bit more upside price action to complete the triangle for wave x, and then, after the confirmation, Wheat could get back to its mid-term bearish trend. The top of wave a is so called critical level. It represents the level, breaking of which will lead to changes in the wave count, and of course to a different perspective.

Silver - reverse to burst

With strongly gaining US Dollar, high budget deficits, restarted bad news and reports, the well known
media analysts suddenly started to talk about deflation, again. But what is more surprising is that all of them have one and the same opinion - precious metals will be the save haven. And because I trust charts only, let's have some feedback and see whether SILVER is really going to be the safest place for your investments.

On April 20 our Metals Bulletin subscribers had the chance to see the following chart:

Back then SILVER was at 17.932 and we forecasted that it will make a new high around 19.9000. And it did. But more important is what we can expect on the big picture now.

There is only one critical level, breaking of which will make the bearish perspective invalid - 21.370. While the market is below that level, it could reverse any moment and start its wave C, which will lead to a renewed mid term bear market for SILVER. It also means that it is very likely to see prices below the 8.41 bottom. And it means that you wouldn't want to own SILVER in these circumstances, right ?

Think again when you make your investment decisions. At that moment I would not recommend you to buy Silver. Actually the opposite. The best position during the next year will be the short. But where is the best place to sell Silver ? When to do it ? It is all written in our weekly Metals Bulletin.

20100518.2007 SILVER +1891 ... bottom

great forecast in gold on 8. to 10. of october
your follow-up is quiet bad
20100518.2035 SILVER +1905 ... bottom

Platinum

It is almost impossible that you haven't heard about the biggest buying opportunity in precious metals which you are about to miss if you don't hurry up and buy gold, silver and platinum. The story goes with the argument that in this falling stock indexes environment and the surprising US Dollar, the only and sure Safe Haven are Precious Metals. A few minutes ago I just passed by this typical headline on the web:

"Platinum investment better than gold"

The article is obviously written by some famous analyst who is trying to convince the audience that above all precious metals (in which you're gonna invest your money, for sure), Platinum is the best choice, cause it has the best market performance in uncertain times. I'm sorry, but I can not agree with that advice. Actually I think this particular advice could harm your investments a lot. Why ? Because of this daily chart of Platinum, published on April 27 in our Metals Bulletin:



You can see for yourself what has happened after that forecast was published. The market topped, and turned to downside, breaking the bullish wall. Platinum and Silver have huge potential to make new lows, in sound with the global deflationary tendencies. With that different opinion I express, I recommend you to be in touch with our Metals Bulletin, giving you the best instrument for your trading decision on GOLD, SILVER, COPPER and PLATINUM.

Cocoa

Corrective and sideways market patterns give possibilities of good trades too. They are more dangerous and sometimes too risky, it's right, but there are moments when having a few confirmations is enough to be on the market. I think we're come to one of those moments in COCOA. The wave pattern here is Expanded Flat (Irregular Correction).

Although this pattern is very dangerous for an Elliott wave newbie trader, there is a part of it which is developing as a five waves decline. If there are five waves in a certain direction, that's the place for an elliottician to go on the market. In this case I'm talking about wave C. It is suppose to be a five waves decline in the opposite direction of the trend.





As we can see on the daily chart of COCOA, waves A and B look complete, and the top of wave B is a little bit higher that the top of wave III. That is what makes me suggest that we're about to see a five waves on the downside for wave C.

Waves (i) and (ii) seem to be done, and we're ringing the bell of the wave (iii) coming ahead. A sharp, intensive and volatile market move is what I expect to see during the next few weeks. There are a lot of possible entry points according to the Elliott wave style of trading, as well as critical levels. Everyone has different temperament and will to take risk.

think you have been wrong in almost every market, the fact your short wheat makes me rather pleased im long