What Happens When You Try to Time the Market?

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James D. Di Virgilio

13 Jan, 2017

in Psychology

Many investors, professional and otherwise, believe that market moves can be predicted and that making frequent moves in and out of markets and investments will lead to greater returns. However, the data tells a different story, which is that market timing and frequent trading are harmful to your portfolio and will significantly reduce your overall return. Let’s begin by examining market timing.

The data below comes from research done by Terrance Odean, Ph.D., of Cal Berkeley, entitled, “Do Investors Trade Too Much?” Dr Odean discovered that amateur investors performed poorly after they made a trade (Either a buy or a sell, both speculative and non-speculative.) Thus, the stocks they sold did much better than the stocks they bought.

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When isolating for just the speculative trades, the returns are even worse.

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But maybe this underperformance only affects individual stock investors. Let’s take a look at research from Stanford’s Jason Hsu, Ph.D., on how the mutual fund investors fared. As you can see below, the returns of investors who purchased a mutual fund and held it are much better than those who bought and sold, and this holds true for every single category.

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Taking things a step further, Dr. Hsu actually quantifies just how much trying to time the market is costing investors. On average, mutual fund investors are destroying 2% of their returns each year by trying to move in and out of funds and mutual fund categories.

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But it doesn’t stop there. What if we want to destroy even more value? All we have to do is trade more frequently. There is a direct correlation between number of trades placed and performance. The more you trade, the more likely it is that you will perform poorly.

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Tying everything together, a Dalbar study shows that the average return for an investor is significantly lower than the return of an index. In the study, one that has been replicated many times, investors who were primarily investing in the S&P 500 index, or stocks that made it up, underperformed it by an extremely wide margin. This kind of study can be replicated with any index, in any asset class.

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I don't write articles. I like to share what I do and how I do it so that others might learn and so that my approach benefits from criticism and suggestions.

Maybe a whole article is unnecessary if developing traders follow the simple principles -
1. do not day-trade
2. in an uptrend be long, in a downtrend be short, if there's no trend be in cash
3. set stops to get you out when the market takes the less probable direction

The detail of how to do these things isn't terribly important or interesting.

May 21, 2017

Member (6071 posts)

tomorton;2908312
Most DAY-TRADERS can not time the markets.


Swing traders can time the markets , if they wait for price to come to their levels , it may temporarily go past their level , than after a wait for a few days , weeks or months , the price goes in their intended direction.

This is how traders cansuccessfully time the markets .So maybe , with your good grammar and english , you can write an article on succesfully timing the markets.

May 21, 2017

Member (3275 posts)

foroom lluzers;2908292
Most traders can not time the markets , it is a misconception .They make mistakes in real time.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/educational-resources/223432-mistakes-make-losing-traders.html



Most DAY-TRADERS can not time the markets.

May 21, 2017

Member (6071 posts)

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