what currencies do you feel will be most effected by the war in the Ukraine?


Active member
As word spread that Russian troops were blockading Ukrainian military facilities, the U.S. dollar and Japanese Yen both increased in value. The reason: Europe’s energy supplies are more directly affected by trade sanctions against Russia, so some Asian and European investors were buying U.S. dollars. A strong dollar means U.S. tourists can buy more foreign goods and services with the same amount of U.S. dollars in their back pocket. “Although the currency markets certainly reacted to events in Ukraine this week, perhaps the most notable feature was how modest the moves proved to be,” says Derrick Simon, chief currency strategist at BNY Mellon, an investment management and investment services company based in London. “Whether this optimistic viewpoint was justified remains to be seen.” There are some bold moves that active traders may want to make, and take their chances. More about those in a moment. But what does this crisis mean everyone else? What does this mean for those of us who want a quieter life, but who nonetheless want to make money—and, most importantly, not lose it?


Active member
so true

however after a major tradgedy comes a flood of success if u look at history the market is flooded with fear and people sell low in crisis and its then time to think about buying


Active member
If Russian stocks fall in panic this week they will become almost a free bet. When you buy stocks this cheap you are being compensated for a lot of political risk.
The Turkish market is also cheap, one less than nine times forecast earnings. The country has been embroiled in some political turmoil recently. But it is just across the Black Sea from the Crimea, and this crisis might cause a further selloff in stocks there.
Russia’s neighbor Poland is more expensive—the market is 15 times forecast earnings—but it contains far less political or economic risk. Poland is increasingly part of western Europe and Vladimir Putin would only threaten Poland if he completely lost his mind, which doesn't seem likely. Poland is a buy if this crisis causes a mass stampede of investors out of central and Eastern Europe.
As for Ukraine? It is such a small market that there are few ways to play it. And the few Ukrainian investment opportunities available to western investors do not appear to have factored in much, if any, bad news. The Ukraine Opportunity Trust, a closed-end fund focused on the small republic and traded in London, closed on Friday at a record high of 4.50 British pounds (to buy). That means the shares actually cost 17% more than the most recent net asset value.
Credit default swaps on some Ukrainian government bonds—insurance against default—surged late last night, and may have further to run. But anyone trying to bet either way is betting on a poker hand with the cards facedown.
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