USD Set for a Crash?

[Npard23]

Based on the DX futures chart, an ugly descending triangle is setting. Major test points are daily closes below 79.5 and 79.

If these break we will likely retest all time lows in 72-74 range. With inflation increasing (despite CPI numbers) and loose monetary policy with the Fed, there is plenty of fundamental reasons for this to happen too.

What do all of you think of the DX short trade?

 

[fxstrategist]

Usd

I dont really think the USD will crash, but it wil have difficulties in going higher, especially versus the Euro, which has been very strong lately.

 

[peeterwoolf]

Indeed, Euro has been very strong against $, it has already reached 1.39 level even before the ECP meeting. But that does not necessarily mean usd will crash.

 

[csc2009]

I think it's highly unlikely the usd will crash, it's not in anyone's best interest. Instead, the usd will probably continue to decline against other currencies, like euro.

 

[fxstrategist]

Usd

Can we consider today's movements a "crash" on the USD? I think the greenback will stay weak versus the other main currencies, especially if the fundamentals from the Euro Zone and the UK keep coming out better than expected.

 

[peeterwoolf]

''Crash'' maybe a bit too strong, ''weak'' definitely.

 

[Npard23]

We broke through 79.5 earlier this week and tested 79 today. Looks like break down is happening. I agree that the dollar "crash" may be more gradual, but the magnitude of the decline will still be high.

 

[alanpris]

It is highly unlikely that the USD will crash. I agree with fxstrategist. If anything, there will be some difficulties comparing to the strength of the euro. Bottom line is many conditions must be in place before the dollar could collapse

 

[Npard23]

Update on my dollar short. Draghi's euro QE hints saved the USD for now. Got stopped out for a loss at 79.37,. With the descending triangle pattern failing, there is no clear direction for the USD as the fundamentals of all the major currencies are putrid (excluding NZD).