My trading journal - plus wave counting bits (old Trumps surprise visit to N.Korea)

[ssam]

Strong rejection or bust thru'?

CHART IS 4h. Usually the 200 does cause a pause. But the LONG is generated. So if you want to be cautious use a judicious stop right under the top red bar, actually right under the tail of the green candle that precedes it. That way you will defo have a profit even if rejection at 200. Then on the correction you can re-position much smarter. Just my 2 cents, amigo

Boom 200 EMA busted through by circa. 30pips. Now cooling off some and found resistance off the 200.

EURUSD - uptrend breaking through 200 is (A), retracement move back to below 200 (B) at area of prior support (next stop back to equilibrium middle of bolly bad) Move (C) continuing to the upside to 1.2800.

Paper trading - entry at 1.2435 (previous support zone) exit 1.2800 area.

Yes this is a long in a down trend.

Do not trade this trade.

 

[ssam]

Boom 200 EMA busted through by circa. 30pips. Now cooling off some and found resistance off the 200.

EURUSD - uptrend breaking through 200 is (A), retracement move back to below 200 (B) at area of prior support (next stop back to equilibrium middle of bolly bad) Move (C) continuing to the upside to 1.2800.

Paper trading - entry at 1.2435 (previous support zone) exit 1.2800 area.

Yes this is a long in a down trend.

Do not trade this trade.

Missed entry by 6pips

 

[fibo_trader]

Strong rejection or bust thru'?

CHART IS 4h. Usually the 200 does cause a pause. But the LONG is generated. So if you want to be cautious use a judicious stop right under the top red bar, actually right under the tail of the green candle that precedes it. That way you will defo have a profit even if rejection at 200. Then on the correction you can re-position much smarter. Just my 2 cents, amigo

LONG continues on 4H, STOP intact
the suggested judicious STOP under the tail of the candle to the left of the red bar is still intact. So some 4H segments have gone by now and we have more data to assess what's going on. LONG continues.

We have thus far a 3-wave down move = corrective signature, therefore dominant 4H trend is up until proven otherwise.

So, regardless what happens you have a profit. If I had skin in, I would forego that small profit and let it correct to wherever the fck it will AS LONG AS THE BREAKOUT LOW HOLDS. Why? The next upwave, if it gets past the 200, can be huge. Risk/Reward concept here at play. Safe play = TP if/when STOP hit.

My 2 cents

 

[fibo_trader]

sorry amigos, the updated chart here ................... see the 3-legged down wave?

clearer picture with the long tail candle in clear sight. The long tail, while no guarantee of efficacy, is still a good sign of bull/bear fight that bulls won

 

[ssam]

sorry amigos, the updated chart here ................... see the 3-legged down wave?

View attachment 264881





clearer picture with the long tail candle in clear sight. The long tail, while no guarantee of efficacy, is still a good sign of bull/bear fight that bulls won





View attachment 264882

This morning spent some time looking at EURUSD - sorry if the chart looks a mess!

I have extended the trendlines you kindly drew above, the friday close candle of the 4 hour looks to have closed slight above, but at the 38% fib, which looks to be rather well respected but this is a gnats whisker from the 200 EMA as resistance now turn support on the 4hr from the friday close candle. Plus the reducing momentum on the RSI.

There is some EUR news due to drop this week on industrial output, which Germany suffering some economic contraction recently, I am more inclined to take a bearish view on this pair for the week.

Entering short on a break of the 1.26000 'psychological' round number. and exit at 1.2050 - ahead of the next round number break. 59pips. 30 pip stop loss at 1.2900 and a TP as above - 2R.

Thoughts welcome .

 

[fibo_trader]

This morning spent some time looking at EURUSD - sorry if the chart looks a mess!

I have extended the trendlines you kindly drew above, the friday close candle of the 4 hour looks to have closed slight above, but at the 38% fib, which looks to be rather well respected but this is a gnats whisker from the 200 EMA as resistance now turn support on the 4hr from the friday close candle. Plus the reducing momentum on the RSI.

There is some EUR news due to drop this week on industrial output, which Germany suffering some economic contraction recently, I am more inclined to take a bearish view on this pair for the week.

Entering short on a break of the 1.26000 'psychological' round number. and exit at 1.2050 - ahead of the next round number break. 59pips. 30 pip stop loss at 1.2900 and a TP as above - 2R.

Thoughts welcome .


View attachment 264911

Absolutely marvelous progress, amigo. All points are good.

My 4H Long stance continues without any change.

Your mention of the next trade for you deserves an alert: before deciding on L or S, find the trend first for YOUR timeframe. then go with it with a stop under a wave low.

 

[ssam]

And here we go folks - just a quick one from my Sunday chart sit down.

It will be wrong or right - feel free to chime in and share thoughts. We have the new prime minister stepping in this week - hold tight!

Here is what I think on dollar sterling - we are bullish, above 200 EMA (albeit not on the chart), bounce off the 38.2% fibo level, and onwards to complete the 5th red wave up. This thread is going to become a dumping ground for my random charts.

I have no skin in game

The RSI is perking up a little too, lets see.

Spent some time this weekend fully digesting Fibos smashing Bear Market thread and how have all the nuggest downs in a note pad which I will write up in logical order on holiday this week.

 

[fibo_trader]

And here we go folks - just a quick one from my Sunday chart sit down.

It will be wrong or right - feel free to chime in and share thoughts. We have the new prime minister stepping in this week - hold tight!

Here is what I think on dollar sterling - we are bullish, above 200 EMA (albeit not on the chart), bounce off the 38.2% fibo level, and onwards to complete the 5th red wave up. This thread is going to become a dumping ground for my random charts.

I have no skin in game

The RSI is perking up a little too, lets see.

Spent some time this weekend fully digesting Fibos smashing Bear Market thread and how have all the nuggest downs in a note pad which I will write up in logical order on holiday this week.
View attachment 265222

 

[fibo_trader]

And here we go folks - just a quick one from my Sunday chart sit down.

It will be wrong or right - feel free to chime in and share thoughts. We have the new prime minister stepping in this week - hold tight!

Here is what I think on dollar sterling - we are bullish, above 200 EMA (albeit not on the chart), bounce off the 38.2% fibo level, and onwards to complete the 5th red wave up. This thread is going to become a dumping ground for my random charts.

I have no skin in game

The RSI is perking up a little too, lets see.

Spent some time this weekend fully digesting Fibos smashing Bear Market thread and how have all the nuggest downs in a note pad which I will write up in logical order on holiday this week.
View attachment 265222

Nugget List? This I gotta see.

Remember the boys here at T2W don't put out on dates. it took malagutti 650 of my posts to have him skip foreplay. So try the un-upside down chart, ie. GBPUSD

 

[ssam]

Nugget List? This I gotta see.

Remember the boys here at T2W don't put out on dates. it took malagutti 650 of my posts to have him skip foreplay. So try the un-upside down chart, ie. GBPUSD

No copyright intended on the content nor the images Fibo, these are pure for my educational benefit as they were too good to just read on a screen!


Nuggets list attached in all its glory (well only a few pages of what I have written), with bad hand writing. I have trawled through every post on that thread and dredged up the nuggets, written these down and will organise this into sections within my notes.

See if you can make sense of any of it!

 

[ssam]

Nugget List? This I gotta see.

Remember the boys here at T2W don't put out on dates. it took malagutti 650 of my posts to have him skip foreplay. So try the un-upside down chart, ie. GBPUSD

I don’t know why the bloodyhell I keep hopping on the wrong chart.
My view is reversed on £/$. Bearish as We have mr Johnson stepping in this week!!

 

[fibo_trader]

No copyright intended on the content nor the images Fibo, these are pure for my educational benefit as they were too good to just read on a screen!


Nuggets list attached in all its glory (well only a few pages of what I have written), with bad hand writing. I have trawled through every post on that thread and dredged up the nuggets, written these down and will organise this into sections within my notes.

See if you can make sense of any of it! View attachment 265223

Excellent work. Flawless notes.

YOU and only you are now the owner of this thread. Make it your learning compendium. each year you read thru' it you will know how far you have progressed as the thought crosses your mine, "fck, I did that and still scored big!" = you are at a higher plateau.

As I come across tutorials by known proficient analysts (very few in number) on waves and counting of waves, I will plug 'em all in your thread. You can study them at your own pace.

 

[fibo_trader]

Some additional basics:

(1)

In an aborning uptrend, wave 2 cannot end below the origin of wave 1. If it does, then its not a 1 - 2, so you scrap the count. Why is this sooooo important? Because you will get rich in a 3rd wave, I mean really rich. So after the suspected wave 1 has ended, you watch like a hawk for the correction - the footprint is a 3-wave structure for the correction. that will be one clue that it could be a wave 2 down. The origin of wave 1 must hold meaning the low must not be violated. then you watch Macd and RSI for +ve divergence. Yet another clue that its a wave 2 down. Use your trendline thru' the "b" of wave 2. When that trendline is broken topside and the low still holds the odds are the 3rd wave has begun. Get on the horse and ride. Do NOT listen to the clowns at T2W. They will be sooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo bearish that listening to them you will think WW3 has broken out. YOU GO LONG and leave these losers in the dust. They only operate when the warm fuzzy feeling of the crowd is with them. Alone, they are p***ies. This SENTIMENT angle you will add to your chart breakout and then take your big swing. Another aspect of why Wave 3 is a big money maker is because a Wave 2 usually retraces 61.8% of wave 1, sometimes 78.6%. So your STOP which goes under Wave 1 is not far away for a trend rider's perspective. Reward/Risk is astronomical.

Then let it run. In every 5-wave sequence there is always one internal wave that is extended. Usually it is Wave 3. Wave 3 will itself be subdivided into 5 waves. this is the usual case. Sometimes, the extended wave is Wave 1 and sometimes its wave 5. But the overall majority of the time its Wave 3 that's the extended wave.

Where to look for profit taking? W3 = 100% x W1 OR 161.8% x W1 OR 261.8% x W1 OR 423.6% x W1

The 1st one, W3 = 100% x W1 ........................ is in line with yet another RULE of WAVES: Wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave

Your road to millions is right here in this (1).

 

[ssam]

Excellent work. Flawless notes.

YOU and only you are now the owner of this thread. Make it your learning compendium. each year you read thru' it you will know how far you have progressed as the thought crosses your mine, "fck, I did that and still scored big!" = you are at a higher plateau.

As I come across tutorials by known proficient analysts (very few in number) on waves and counting of waves, I will plug 'em all in your thread. You can study them at your own pace.

Thanks Fibo, you planted the seed my friend.

I found two PDFs by the chap Jeffery Kennedy which seem to be pretty well written.

Yes, please do plug’em!

Are you going to start a EURUSD thread? Would make for interesting watching that’s for sure.

As the note book grows, as I write my notes (I have a week off work from Wednesday) I will begin formulating into a strategy rule book - anything I cannot find the answer to in a PDF or thread - I will be sending your way! But not all the time, so worry not!

I’ve just seen the huge pile of nuggets left above this post, so may retreat the the can for further study this evening.

 

[fibo_trader]

Thanks Fibo, you planted the seed my friend.

I found two PDFs by the chap Jeffery Kennedy which seem to be pretty well written.

Yes, please do plug’em!

Are you going to start a EURUSD thread? Would make for interesting watching that’s for sure.

As the note book grows, as I write my notes (I have a week off work from Wednesday) I will begin formulating into a strategy rule book - anything I cannot find the answer to in a PDF or thread - I will be sending your way! But not all the time, so worry not!

I’ve just seen the huge pile of nuggets left above this post, so may retreat the the can for further study this evening.

Yes, Jeffrey Kennedy is excellent. He does videos too. Sign up for notifications ONLY (no need to subscribe as a paying member) so you receive the emails. He has also done a TRADER's CLASSROOM pdf.

No, no more trading threads for me. Like I said I am DONE! I'm on a very slim engine now, only EurUsd and the bread is going to continue to pour in in exponential leaps and bounds because I've freed up loads of attention socked into stuff I thought was important to me - as in too many girlfriends all now dumped for just THE ONE.

I will continue to post in my BEAR thread only overall macro perspectives, like for example Deutsche Bank fiasco and catching BEAR/BULL Bottoms/Tops.

 

[ssam]

And here we go folks - just a quick one from my Sunday chart sit down.

It will be wrong or right - feel free to chime in and share thoughts. We have the new prime minister stepping in this week - hold tight!

Here is what I think on dollar sterling - we are bullish, above 200 EMA (albeit not on the chart), bounce off the 38.2% fibo level, and onwards to complete the 5th red wave up. This thread is going to become a dumping ground for my random charts.

I have no skin in game

The RSI is perking up a little too, lets see.

Spent some time this weekend fully digesting Fibos smashing Bear Market thread and how have all the nuggest downs in a note pad which I will write up in logical order on holiday this week.
View attachment 265222

And I am returned, afresh from the Amalfi coast and full of fresh pizza, caprese panino and gelato. Back to it after a little break, to ensure focus and drive are maintained - got some pockets of study time in as well which is good.

I have been bearish on the backwards GBPUSD (one Fibo knows this is for patriotic reasons only). But posted USDGBP from phone, nothing changed from the call in the screen shot above. The only thing that has changed is Love Island is now ended, maybe this is the reason for the GBP sell off.

My call of a 5th wave up as above was correct in Direction but I feel from what I know this may be a 3rd wave up, as 3rd wave is where to money is.

Are we seeing the USD rally cool off to complete the ABC? And then continue to stratespheric heights - making next months holiday to very expensive due to poor GBP strength.

I have held this long on my dummy account (no skin in game) for almost 300pips.

A month closer to full capitalisation. Will post cleaner non-phone charts later this evening, but leaving these here so I can come back and look at a later date.

 

[ssam]

USDGBP (GBPUSD)

Sunday chart analysis - continuing with the counting waves. Applying Fibo's nuggets above.

The bottom of wave 2 does not breach that of 'c' which is the '0' / start of the 5 wave count, so I believe this does not invalidate the 5 wave count. The 38.2% fib level held, found resistance and continues through the 50%, settled back at the 78.6%, took off from the 61.8%.

Again, I am wondering if I am trying to fit the wave counting into what I expect it to be i.e. I have miraculously hit at the top of a 5th wave and the start of an A B C.

On the USDGBP there have been some wicky candles 4 lower lows in a row - I am bearish on this pair short term i.e. a few days, but only to the 48 EMA the RSI is trending lower, with bearish view until the downward trend is broken.

I would look to get involved in the market at the 0.82.

The black chart is the flip reversal (GBP USD) here the RSI has broken through the down trend, with a sign of bullish things to come? who knows. But at 75% the buyers on the USDGBP might be approaching slightly frothy!

The 4 bull candles making higher highs, expecting this to continue - but with fewer announcements on the economic calender for this pair this week. I will be looking to the EUR and JPY pairs.

 

[ssam]

CADNZD showing some nice wave structure 5 wave structure up ABC structure down coming ?
Break of the green upwards trendline I would look to get involved in the short, to the next fib retracement to 78.6%?
RSI is overheated too. Bearish this week.

Lets see

 

[ssam]

CADNZD showing some nice wave structure 5 wave structure up ABC structure down coming ?
Break of the green upwards trendline I would look to get involved in the short, to the next fib retracement to 78.6%?
RSI is overheated too. Bearish this week.

Lets seeView attachment 265704

*UPDATE* this was my CADNZD call. I had a break of the lower trendline (PURPLE). No changes to trendlines, apart from purple line and some additions to the RSI. I am expecting this to be the start of an ABC correction.
Green middle trendline held well - but unluckly realised I had made a booboo and didnt set my T.P until I realised later at rushed to take profit. more downwards pressure on this pair.

Hopped on this for a quick 50pips as shown in the updated snapshot.

 

[ssam]

USDGBP (GBPUSD)

Sunday chart analysis - continuing with the counting waves. Applying Fibo's nuggets above.

The bottom of wave 2 does not breach that of 'c' which is the '0' / start of the 5 wave count, so I believe this does not invalidate the 5 wave count. The 38.2% fib level held, found resistance and continues through the 50%, settled back at the 78.6%, took off from the 61.8%.

Again, I am wondering if I am trying to fit the wave counting into what I expect it to be i.e. I have miraculously hit at the top of a 5th wave and the start of an A B C.

On the USDGBP there have been some wicky candles 4 lower lows in a row - I am bearish on this pair short term i.e. a few days, but only to the 48 EMA the RSI is trending lower, with bearish view until the downward trend is broken.

I would look to get involved in the market at the 0.82.

The black chart is the flip reversal (GBP USD) here the RSI has broken through the down trend, with a sign of bullish things to come? who knows. But at 75% the buyers on the USDGBP might be approaching slightly frothy!

The 4 bull candles making higher highs, expecting this to continue - but with fewer announcements on the economic calender for this pair this week. I will be looking to the EUR and JPY pairs.

View attachment 265701View attachment 265702

Here is my update on this previous trade - I did have the confidence to trade it, but it looks like my short term A touch was on the nose, my B up was ok and C completed. Albeit I believe this is only the subwave ABC. Looking at this on a 4 hour it appears so, but taking a look at this on the 1hour (I have included both 4 hour and 1 hour to show detail of waves)

would have yeilded around 50pips or so.

Still counting those waves Fibo. It is working, I think...