Trading Today's US Housing Data: A Pre-Release Strategy

[The5ersTF]

At 17:00, the US Existing Home Sales for September will be released. This data is critical because it signals both economic health and inflation pressure (via home prices).

Consensus: $4.06$ Million annual rate.

How to Trade the Surprise:

1. Strong Sales (Above $4.06M$): Reinforces economic resilience, which supports the Federal Reserve in keeping interest rates high. Likely Bullish for the USD.
2. Weak Sales (Below $4.00M$): Suggests the Fed's high rates are rapidly hurting consumer activity. This increases the chances of an earlier rate cut, which is generally Bearish for the USD.

Pro-Tip: Pay close attention to the Median Price component. If sales are weak but prices are still up, the inflation problem remains, which can limit the USD's drop. Trade the surprise against the forecast!