The Oil Trader

Originally Posted by twalker
I have been only taking long positions in oil for a while now and as a result was stopped out of the last trade. Guess for a subscription to Peters site I could have avoided losing a couple of grand but probably wouldn't have believed them anyway as I have always found my own analysis works best in the long run. I would still not be getting short this market however. Would like to hear a coherent argument from bears however, like where is downside taget or duration of this downside move, or will that cost me $30?
It is of course just my view and energy products are not where I spend much time.

Also: TWALKER....as you say ..."wouldn't have believed them anyway as I have always found my own analysis works best in the long run. " Since you don't really want the analysis....why get so worked up over what you don't want anyway.
 
I am not worked up. You were the one who spat your dummy out when I originally suggested that unless people were full time in this market then the subscription was maybe better spent on other things. I stand by that but it is just my opinion, everyone else can make up their own mind. I did not suggest for a minute that what you are posting on your site was not useful, I am sure it is and I will certainly have a look myself.
As for the way you have been blatantly pushing your site on here, that is another issue, particularly transparent are the other goons who are posting along with you. I have not seen them on here in the past, what a coincidence.
My past, I spent 8 years at Cargill, Enron then Amerada Hess, I know the energy business well and plenty of people in it. Maybe I should conduct a pole of x-colleagues to see who uses your site.
Finally, a bit of advice, you are the only one who has something to lose by continuing to post in this manner. I have no axe to grind, but you have pissed me off with your posts. Better to explain benefits of what you have to offer than to try and discredit somebody else. Stupid, as in this case the person happens to be somebody who knows what they are talking about.
You should post something useful or otherwise shut up. The useful bit was in free trial offer, the rest has been b/s.
 
I am one of the "goons" who recommended the site. I was honest about the fact that I am a newbie to trading oil and for somebody like me and to be honest, for a lot of experienced traders, I believe that the site is invaluable. If you make money without it, that's great, but I guess we don't all have your knowledge and experience. However great your knowledge, it still doesn't give you free reign to abuse others on this board. I've also found this board very helpful so let's try to keep it friendly.
 
twalker said:
I am not worked up. You were the one who spat your dummy out when I originally suggested that unless people were full time in this market then the subscription was maybe better spent on other things. I stand by that but it is just my opinion, everyone else can make up their own mind. I did not suggest for a minute that what you are posting on your site was not useful, I am sure it is and I will certainly have a look myself.
As for the way you have been blatantly pushing your site on here, that is another issue, particularly transparent are the other goons who are posting along with you. I have not seen them on here in the past, what a coincidence.
My past, I spent 8 years at Cargill, Enron then Amerada Hess, I know the energy business well and plenty of people in it. Maybe I should conduct a pole of x-colleagues to see who uses your site.
Finally, a bit of advice, you are the only one who has something to lose by continuing to post in this manner. I have no axe to grind, but you have pissed me off with your posts. Better to explain benefits of what you have to offer than to try and discredit somebody else. Stupid, as in this case the person happens to be somebody who knows what they are talking about.
You should post something useful or otherwise shut up. The useful bit was in free trial offer, the rest has been b/s.
Click to expand...

"Better to explain benefits of what you have to offer than to try and discredit somebody else. Stupid, as in this case the person happens to be somebody who knows what they are talking about.
You should post something useful or otherwise shut up. "

not worked up? Please, ask away within the industry. We have nothing to hide.
 
Hey whats going on here? I started this Oiltrader.com thing.... maybe i shouldn't have. Just a note though: i was advised to stay away from the market... and it's a good job i did as it rallied up, thanks Peter. However, i do see Twalkers point of view as there are many cons (or just have the wrong opinion) out there, and i have read many well known trading books that say there is no better analysis then your own, and i'm a beliver in that (even some of the predicted waffle that come on Bloomberg tv!). But there's also sites out there that are genuine there to help (and you will need to pay for them, nothing is for free... and i do hope and know Twalker, and anyone else, THAT free advise is the most dangerous!!!!! Esp' in trading).

Besides help sites with a free trial period is someone who is confident with there record of analysis and are willing to give that trust to you by this free period. If it's not for you... well your not bound; unlike so many others where you have to pay upfront and some times annually!<< these are the help you want to stay away from......
 
Following from Craig Harris today, somebody who I have a great respect for an been communicating with for many years:

Several oil pipelines along with the oil minister himself and a whole lot of other people have recently been blown up in Iraq. One of the pipelines that has recently been blown up has brought Iraq oil production to a complete halt. The crude market got a boost from this but the response has been fairly muted. I have a couple of important thoughts. The first thought is that these "insurgents" have now realized that this is a potent tactic and you can expect it to be used more and more frequently. That's bullish for oil. The ignorant US media portrays it like...."why would Iraqi's blow up their own oil"? Well, the oil is being pumped into a US tanker and the money goes into a US bank account....so whose oil is it...really? If the Chinese occupied the US and gas from Louisana was going into a Chinese tanker and the money into a Chinese bank account, do you think a US "insurgent" might blow it up? Take Noam's advice. Use some common sense. The second thought is that these pipeline blasts in Iraq have been so effective that I think Saudi Arabia is likely to also be a target. If a Saudi pipeline blows, you are going to see oil go to $50 or $60 (or higher) in a hurry and be waiting in line for gas. That could happen in the middle of the night US time....speculatively shorting crude oil (or any of the derivatives....heating oil...unleaded gas) is a very risky idea in my opinion....an opinion I've held since the invasion.

Interestingly, Iran has been making waves with a proposed new crude oil futures market based in Iran slated for 2005. You know that has Cheney on the phone with Falwell and Lindbaugh....cranking up his pacemaker a few bpm and throwing darts at the Iatollah Khomeni dartboard in his bunker. Iran, a key player in the axis of evil, is still squarely in his crosshairs. Iran's Bushehr reactor, which is a joint venture with Russia, is now scheduled for completion in early 2005. I'm on the record as saying I think Sharon is going to bomb it using US supplied warplanes with Cheney's approval. It's not much of a stretch because his government has threatened repeatedly to do so. Unlike when Israel bombed Iraq's reactor which was a joint venture with France and experienced no retaliation, I agree that it will bring the region to the brink.

Iran has already said they would retaliate against an attack on Bushehr....with what? I have read informed speculation that Putin has sold several nuclear-tipped Sunburn II missiles to Iran and Syria and if so, an attack on either nation would result in Sunburns travelling at 45 feet above ground on their way towards Tel Aviv and Haifa at Mach 2.5, arriving within a few minutes of launch. There isn't really anything you can do defensively after those things are launched because they fly so low and fast. Whether that's true or not???? I think we will get to find out before March of next year because Sharon and Cheney both in my view are madmen. I have come to this view over the past several years....I used to hold quite a different view....I used to believe that Cheney was pragmatic and smart. In fact I think I made the comment shortly after the election that I was glad he was there to function as GW's brain. The evidence is now overwhelming however in my view that he is intentionally attempting to provoke Armageddon. Maybe when you're a religious extremist with a pacemaker and a few strokes behind you....you think that's your best hope for the future???
 
Belive it or not... after all these yrs.. the oil trader website is still up BUT not running.... what a shame!
 
MaxiV said:
Belive it or not... after all these yrs.. the oil trader website is still up BUT not running.... what a shame!
Click to expand...

So, give us an update. Did you follow their advice and if so then how have you done in the oil markets over the years?

Peter
 
I did way back then.... but in my opinion... why not learn it rather than pay £1000's to someone else to tell you whats going on and what they think (they were wrong sometimes, like many times in trading too). But can you justify to pay that amount every term or qrtr when you can put that into a trading account and, having a very good system. Don't let your money get eaten away!!
 
Chaps I haven't been on this forum for a long time and just thought I'd look it up again. Have posted the below on another thread. Basically 5 years oil trading and would love to speak to any other experienced oil day traders . Very happy to share thoughts and ideas re day trading oil.

"5 years trading oil and at last getting somewhere very exciting. Use tick charts via tradestation, best day is 280 ticks, best week is 650 ticks but still using fx pro spread betting, so v small size. Would love to give up work over next few months, working hard to make it happen.

My question: Does anyone else day trade oil using tick charts? would be great to share some ideas with you if so. Has been a long journey."
 
oil trading is the important filed in economy because oil is use for producing energy and every firm use energy as the shape of electricity.
 
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