Systems exposed

[barjon]

barjon

Thank you for your reply

Referring to my example eod 21/09 @ 4608

The eod low of the previous 20 days was 23/08 @ 4405 which means a 203 point drop before closing the trade and is a little too rich for me.

Since the 21/09 the lowest close was 27/09 @ 4541 a 67 point drawdown.

The index has not closed above 4608.

I would not be happy with this trade.

Not quite clear on the 21st day dropping off.

Regards

bracke

bracke,

Been off piste for a bit and just catching up.

I'm not sure you had it quite right. If you were embarking on the system today you would see the thumbnail chart. You would be waiting for ftse to rise above the high (thick red line) or fall below the low (thick black line). At the close today's bar would print and 3/9 bar (21st day) would drop off the chart and the low would change to the dotted black line. Similarly, after 14 days the 22/9 high bar would drop off leaving the high as the dotted red line (assuming ftse had not risen above that level in the meantime).

The highs and lows are dynamic and thus the points at which you would stop and reverse change as the highs and lows change. The system means you're always in the market, either long or short.

I'm not advocating the system, just explaining it as I understand it (someone will correct me if I've got it wrong ). As others said it's the basic system that the Turtles tweaked a bit and, like many, it works extremely well in trending markets.
good trading

jon

 

[bracke]

barjon

Thank you for your post and chart. I now understand.

Would suggest a warning should be attached to this system....... Not for those of a nervous disposition.

Regards

bracke

 

[fastnet]

BTW - Bracke - in case you're interested there's a turtle soup type (my own mod) set-up forming right now on the USD/EUR EOD chart.

Isn't it a shame that there isn't a part of these boards where traders of similar position type strategies can't tip each other off about potential set-ups? Would it be a good idea? Hmmm needs some thought - maybe no so good if we're all piling into the same position especially if our intend is plain for all the SB cos to see.

Essentially, rightly or wrongly, I shall be looking to fade any break of the recent (in pos trading terms) high of 1.2460 on 19th July. I'll be looking to go short in the 1.2375 region with a stop just above whatever the high is today/next week.

I have to trade like this because I also hold down a hectic full-time job. This might be a hairy strategy in such an established up trend and with everyone saying that the dollar is going down etc. Equally cliched is that when everybody says something will happen usually the opposite takes place. . . . . contrarian thinking I suppose. Beauty of it is that unlike a turtle set up you can have loads of stabs at the top with really well defined stop losses. . . with turtle trading you buy right at the very top hoping for a continuation and brave massive drawdowns as mentioned below.

Each to their own I suppose. I tried turtle trading for months but kept pulling the plug on positions that would have eventually made money because I couldn't stand coming home from work and finding myself another few hundred quid down. . . . really ruined the evening - know what I mean??

Okay - back on my 'ed looking busy. . . .

 

[mr_cassandra]

Gotta agree

In the 4 years I've spent developing my own program for timing the market, I've come across a surprising amount of people who 'just know' that you can't time the market. They come equipped with a fairly standard package of financial media/analyst euphemisms as to why 'it can't be done'. The list below is from them not me.

1. Back-testing doesns't prove anything.
2. Must be proven in real time
3. Not enough real-time
4. Must be curve-fit or over-optimized.
5. Maybe it only works in a bear market
6. Maybe it only works in a bull market.
7. Maybe it only works in a flat market.

And my all-time favorites are the ones who have literally told me:
It can't be done and I will NOT look at your spreadsheet which details what you have done. While not wanting to be rude I've had to tell people like that that one can't possibly give them any form of credibility in their claim.

My work can be found by googling: mvp signal system. Its not for sale and sells nothing so I believe I am within TOS by talking about it.

Trendie

I am often suprised at the number of people on T2W who make statements of fact based on their own experience/perception

Maybe your post should read:-
"no-one i am aware of can consistently predict the market"