Natural Gas a chance?

[inggscap]

Where'd all the NatG traders go?

 

[pmmkm]

..gone crying, because of their losses . hihihi

Last two month was disappointing in NG, not any big movement, some small trades but
not the big movement.

We are short since last week of february! @ 7,75 will close the trade today or tomorrow.

 

[inggscap]

hahaha yeah

Ouch! Very nice profit pmmkm. I've just been monitoring it and I saw that entry signal at the end of Feb but an exit appeared early March, I see you hung in... it paid off!

You wouldn't happen to know a good broker would you? Thanks mate and keep up the great profits!

 

[pmmkm]

Don´t worry had also so much bad signals, that I´m still couldn´t say that I love the gas . However, we are "learning" and sometimes, if we think we learned enough, market will teach us that it is not!

Broker? Depanding on the size you want to trade, the amount of course, but if you are a "normal" private trader. You won´t need any special prime broker. I´m working for several years with RCG Rosenthal Collins Group, Clearing Member of the CME, but not directly, through an Introducing Broker in LA, Globalfutures, www.globalfutures.com, might be some better brokers out there, but I think it is ok. Paying about 1 Dollar Halfturn Comm.

Closed NG @ 6,92 not bad!

Don´t know what will happen next, resistent at 6,80? or testing again the 6,50 or going up ???

May be any other NG Traders will tell us their opinion?

 

[inggscap]

Thanks mate

Yeah NG has grown on me, before I didn't like it so much but now I'm wanting to get my feet in after watching it for so long. Well done on the trade there! 6.92, good one!

No idea yet as to which way NG will be heading next from my side, I'll give you a shout here when it becomes more defined. Any others about with their ideas?

Enjoy the profits

 

[inggscap]

Had a buy signal that happened at 7.511 at 1am this morning, currently sitting at 7.609... not sure when it will run out of steam, MACD is still heading up.

Caught the move before that on the 4th, 7.591 sell, went down to 7.463 exit.

 

[pmmkm]

Hi,

at the moment no trades in NG, don´t expect high vola, but at the moment our cycle system shows short.

 

[TWI]

I'm long. Not to bad today but no strong conviction just bought the earlier price break.

 

[Hook Shot]

Is this the start of the wild ride ?

Phil Flynn of Alaron, is thinking the big boys are be getting ready to take GAS to the moon. Ever since he said it NatGas has been very lively.... July 8.080.

 

[TWI]

Seasonal strength comes in summer and I am long here in N7. It has work to do but it certainly has a chance. I have bought the strength a couple of times in the past couple of months and taken stops. When it goes it will pay back the losses and already performed well earlier in year. Not sure I know if this is the break or not that will be the one. Just got to keep swinging the bat and hope John Arnold agrees..

 

[Hook Shot]

Seasonal strength comes in summer and I am long here in N7. It has work to do but it certainly has a chance. I have bought the strength a couple of times in the past couple of months and taken stops. When it goes it will pay back the losses and already performed well earlier in year. Not sure I know if this is the break or not that will be the one. Just got to keep swinging the bat and hope John Arnold agrees..

Arnold - £2.7m/day - omg!

 

[KTF]

Oscar, a guy who puts his nads on the line, has shown US natural gas to go up from the end of Sepember to anytime between November and January in 7 of the last 7 years. Thought I'd post this for those who don't access his site who want to take a punt for it being 8 years on the trot.

 

[TWI]

Actually, is this by any chance because the market is always in Contango as we move into winter demand period. Current forward prices are as follows:

NGV7 6.319
NGX7 7.050
NGZ7 7.792

If you look at a continuation chart the rollovers will always show increasing prices during this period. Whether you can realise this by buying and holding NGZ7 is unclear.

 

[KTF]

Actually, is this by any chance because the market is always in Contango as we move into winter demand period. Current forward prices are as follows:

NGV7 6.319
NGX7 7.050
NGZ7 7.792

If you look at a continuation chart the rollovers will always show increasing prices during this period. Whether you can realise this by buying and holding NGZ7 is unclear.

This is the first time I've traded gas. I took around 240 pooints wed/thur on the october contract which expired yesterday evening. I am now long on the November contract at 7.10
Can you explain why you can't make money from the upward curve going into winter?

 

[TWI]

The contango is already priced into the forward price curve. Look at where you got out of the october contract and where you bought the november..quite a premium in the Nov already!!
I am not saying you cannot make money I am just saying that a continuation chart of historical price will give a misleading view of how much you are likely to make by holding a long in a single contract.
I have traded NG for years and I assure you there is not a no brainer trade at this time in the year. Natgas has half a chance here but I am flat for now.

 

[KTF]

The contango is already priced into the forward price curve. Look at where you got out of the october contract and where you bought the november..quite a premium in the Nov already!!
I am not saying you cannot make money I am just saying that a continuation chart of historical price will give a misleading view of how much you are likely to make by holding a long in a single contract.
I have traded NG for years and I assure you there is not a no brainer trade at this time in the year. Natgas has half a chance here but I am flat for now.

I see what you mean as there is a huge differance in the monthly contracts. Anyhoo, fingers crossed as I'm without a stop and hoping to hit 10-11 for the usual xmas spike!

 

[TWI]

KTF - Just been looking at seasonals and despite the contango in Nat Gas forwards it does actually have the strongest historical upside tendency of any commodity in October with (since 1983) a 63% chance of an advance max upside has been 82.9% , min return -16.8%. This bucks the trend of the index as most commodities including gold, silver and crude have a seasonal declines in Oct.
Good luck, I will be looking for the right signal to jump on there with you. Hope you survived the last few volatile days, NG is not for those with cardiac issues.

 

[KTF]

KTF - Just been looking at seasonals and despite the contango in Nat Gas forwards it does actually have the strongest historical upside tendency of any commodity in October with (since 1983) a 63% chance of an advance max upside has been 82.9% , min return -16.8%. This bucks the trend of the index as most commodities including gold, silver and crude have a seasonal declines in Oct.
Good luck, I will be looking for the right signal to jump on there with you. Hope you survived the last few volatile days, NG is not for those with cardiac issues.

Thanks for the info. No matter what I will let this run until the end of the month expiry. Maybe the warm weather in the States has led to the decline of the past 2 days. Will be adding to the position on Monday. Good luck in your trading.