Nasdaq at 29-Month Low…

Riz

Experienced member
1,266 5
Nasdaq ended the day down –57 to 1,783 forming a new year low last seen in Oct. 30, 1998 as the market got more nervous of rising concerns about tech stocks earnings… thus being 65% down from its March 2000 high of 5,048…

Losers outpaced winners 27 to 10 on the Nasdaq with a volume of 1.81 billions…

An analyst summarised the sentiment, "We're not expecting to hear any good news from any companies..."

The money moved to sidelines as been the case for some time…The Dow didn’t do better than Nasdaq only followed the long way round first surging more than 100 then dropping 100.85 to 9,777.93...thus more money on the sidelines…the answer to the question regarding when we’ll rally is here...when all this money comes back to the market…it’s the us ecnomy itself…there is still great uncertainty as to when or if the slow down will stop to start the recovery…

Most analysts accept that the manufacturing is in a recession seeing the NAPM index rose to 43.1 from 41.9 in February…what they don’t know is if the Fed will act more aggressively to save the weak industrial sector…

So the technology sector is still in the process of basing and building a bottom and not yet over testing new lows while doing that…basing and building a bottom after being down by 65% should have nothing to do with the classic approach we’ve been taught…big capitulation then calling for the bottom…we need to see and expect a broader view to understand the current situation…it’s not hitting the bottom it’s basing and building the bottom…this means consolidating when bouncing both up and down thus placing most stocks in their proper bottoms before building the bottom for the whole market…

So Mark (titus-uk) is right when saying this may not be the bottom...it certainly is not, it's basing and building a bottom...

One more thing that some analysts put it the wrong way is the issue of a sustainable bottom…the problem actually is not having a sustainable rally..every time the market starts one it gets stopped by concerns over the economy in general and profit growth…checking indexes bit by bit is not the answer..in fact it refers to uncertainty on the Fed side as well…they need to get a whole picture of the economy and act accordingly with whatever means necessary…but we’re not there yet as the Fed still best says we’re on guard…

Unless we see that we’ll amazingly see analysts starting the pick up at the 2nd or 3rd quarter when the market rallies and talking about the 4th quarter when it tanks like today:
“We don’t expect a meaningful pickup until the fourth quarter…” said Bruce Steinberg, Merrill Lynch's chief economist…

Over all I don’t think we should expect a market turn round this week as we’ll hear more profit warnings that make everyone see only the empty half of the glass…once those are over people might start to hear more reasonable analysis…that’s of course unless the Fed doesn’t surprise everyone with further rate cuts…

Riz
 

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
All the time we are seeing lower lows on NDX, we can't even begin to think about a bottom...or anything else for that matter.But then we all knew that already, didn't we....
We need to make a higher high (above 1740) before there's even the remotest chance of an up trend.By then we will have seen at least a 15% rise from now....
 
AdBlock Detected

We get it, advertisements are annoying!

But it's thanks to our sponsors that access to Trade2Win remains free for all. By viewing our ads you help us pay our bills, so please support the site and disable your AdBlocker.

I've Disabled AdBlock