My Forex Funds - Evaluation Standard - ($200,000 account)

The Erect Trader

Member
72 70
I slow played today as well but this time, i went in a small drawdown during the trading session :

september èth 2021.png
 
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The Erect Trader

Member
72 70
Lost thursday, then i tried to win in one shot trade on friday. Here is the result. No comment.

lost in a week.png
 
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kevinkdog

Junior member
28 14
The problem is you still need an edge with your strategy.

A random 1:3 risk to reward strategy would win about 25% of the time (we will forget about trading costs in this example).

So, your chances of getting 2 wins in a row are actually around .25*.25 = 6.25%.

Let's say instead you have 30% chance of winning (you have an edge):
70% of time you lose 1, 30% of time you win 3. Long run expectancy is 0.2, which actually is not bad. If you make 1 trade a week like this, and either lose $1000 or gain $3000. In a year, you'll gain $200*52 = $10,400, which is really pretty good. (My point is even 30% wins with a 1:3 risk to reward is very good).

But even with a 30% chance of winning, you still only have .3*.3 = 9% chance of hitting 2 winners in a row.

This video makes it sounds like "just win 2 times in a row" is easy, when it fact it is not.
 
 
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