NexusIntelligence
Junior member
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Key developments:
However:
This creates a conflicting setup:
Short-term → relief rally potential
Medium-term → inflation and rates remain a headwind
Key levels:
Focus remains on:
This is a macro-driven market. Position accordingly.
- Brent crude down 4.7% to ~$99.55 on Iran ceasefire signals
- Asian equities +1.9% overnight
- Futures pointing higher into open
However:
- Bond markets now pricing ~50% probability of rate hike by October
- Software sector remains weak ($IGV -23% YTD)
- Crypto under pressure after stablecoin regulatory concerns ($COIN -9%)
This creates a conflicting setup:
Short-term → relief rally potential
Medium-term → inflation and rates remain a headwind
Key levels:
- $SPY resistance: 665
- $SPY support: 650 → 640
- Oil below $100 critical for sustained upside
Focus remains on:
- Paychex earnings (labor market signal)
- Iran negotiation updates (oil direction)
- Yield movement (4.25% → 4.40% breakout risk)
This is a macro-driven market. Position accordingly.
