Long on U.S. Crude Oil (Gustav)

[xtraderx]

Hi Everyone,

I`m in a difficult situation I went long on US Crude Oil at 11700 at 8.00am this morning, The result is i am now 600 points the wrong way.. I have extended my stop to 11000.

Does anyone have any ideas on what direction this one is going? 😕

 

[tantra]

sorry to hear that buddy.. i think there could be a slight upward bounce but i doubt it will get to 11700 anytime soon.... unless one of four things happens: i) the hurricane speeds up and goes up a category or two ii) Russia/Georgia manage to find more issues iii) the dollar could be overbrought and may need a correction iv) Iran say something dodgy!

We have oil inventories due later in the week.. so supply/demand figures could help/hurt you. Either way, its a gamble.

I've lost crap loads of money trading crude so i dont bother anymore. I'm wondering why you went long when we all knew the only reason it was so high was because of hurricane G... it was gonna come down sooner or later.

I'm no expert... but sometimes its best to cut your losses and learn to trade properly and then come back stronger.

Anyway. fingers crossed for ya!

 

[xtraderx]

Thanks for this Tantra..really helpfull info. I`m quite new to trading crude, well trading as a whole, it seems i`ve got this one completly wrong, I was expecting Gustav to be upgraded to 4-5, i think i`m going to wait for the bounce and cut my losses, stop loss is at 10700 im hoping it won`t come anywhere near it but as i`ve let it run this far i don`t want want it to cut in and bounce back. Any help/advice will be appreciated thanks again XT

 

[intradaybill]

xtraderx,

I'm sorry to hear this but you must realize something sooner or later for your own good, I mean the fact that what you did is not considered tarding by many people in this community but gambling. Needless to say some of us have been in your position because at one point in time eraly in our trading carrier we thought we could make a big one quick. I made this mistake several years ago in commodities. My suggestion: cut your losses short and take this as a lesson. It is hard to make money trading unless you turn systematic, one way or the other, and refrain from event driven trading because it is a game of chance with the odds against you most of the time.

Good luck to you

 

[Lee Shepherd]

Hi Everyone,

I`m in a difficult situation I went long on US Crude Oil at 11700 at 8.00am (EDIT: posted 18:23 - 1st Sept 08) this morning, The result is i am now 600 points the wrong way.. I have extended my stop to 11000.

Does anyone have any ideas on what direction this one is going? 😕

CRUDE NOW TRADING AT $106.85

O.k, so lessons learned should be:


Dont get advice on your trades from strangers on the net.

Use, ermmm, what they called, them things that cut losses, mmm, ya know, cancels the trades, what they called, thingy's. dam it, cant remember, hang on, will call a friend. yo is that spanish, you dont know either.....ahhh, I remember....
STOP LOSS. (please note: a stop loss is not a stop loss if it is moved as it doesn't stop anything)

The other thing is that should be at the top is....Know what you're doing. Sorry mate, you ain't a clue so stop gambling your money away.

Demo trade, if this ain't for you then you have no passion in the markets and are only in it for the money, therefore you will find it extremely difficult to virtually impossible. Also note: we're all in it for the money but passion for the work, study, research and patience has to come first.

 

[xtraderx]

I admit i was taking advice from someone who aledgely knew what they were doing, as i am new to trading in crude, I did leave my stop loss where it was set. This is an expensive lesson learnt, from what i can gather everyone seems to suffer a bad loss at the begining, thanks to those for sharing their knowledge and advice.

Regards

XT

 

[Lee Shepherd]

:!:I admit i was taking advice from someone who aledgely knew what they were doing,:!: as i am new to trading in crude,:!: I did leave my stop loss where it was set.:!: This is an expensive lesson learnt, from what i can gather everyone seems to suffer a bad loss at the begining, thanks to those for sharing their knowledge and advice.

Regards

XT

:!: First, know your market, know who your speaking with, if they advised you to move your stop then they are idiots, simple.

:!: Second, you did move your stop loss. Look back over your post and the time of the price of crude when you were still in the trade followed by what you posted, ie, 'I've extended my stop to $110', which means you've moved it.

Once you get to grips with yourself you can move forward, dont live in denial.

 

[gle101]

No one actually knows where the market is heading. Do not take any advice from anybody or believe in what you hear in the media. Stop loss should not be altered, it might work one or two times, but when things really goes wrong, by doing this, you can blow your entire account. We have all experienced traders, been in your situation. Yes it is a hard learned lesson, but it is probably worth it as a part of your trading experience.

 

[xtraderx]

Thanks for your comments, from now on i`m sticking to the rules 1000%, I must admit i`ve been quite profitable in most of my previous trading, just with this one i let it run thinking the market would reverse listening to others. BAD BAD MOVE. Sticking to small profits and tight stops from now on listening to no one bar the rules, end of..

 

[jasper36]

crude has broken the 200 day moving average i don't know if that means anything to you.I wouldn't be buying while it was approaching such an attractive number.You went long just above the moving average ,you would of been content with your original stop.

 

[gle101]

crude has broken the 200 day moving average i don't know if that means anything to you.I wouldn't be buying while it was approaching such an attractive number.You went long just above the moving average ,you would of been content with your original stop.

I think where the instrument according to TA is heading is not the real issue here. Proper money management and a set stop loss on the other hand, would have protected this fellow not to get into this awkward situation in the first place.

 

[Lee Shepherd]

crude has broken the 200 day moving average i don't know if that means anything to you.I wouldn't be buying while it was approaching such an attractive number.You went long just above the moving average ,you would of been content with your original stop.

200 day ma, wow. I reckon you been listening to bloomberg to much.
Thats over 40 trading weeks, remember the bigger the ma the less whipsaws you'll have but opportunity will present itself far less often, also, you'd have to mess around with huge stops and in such a volatile market, one has to bear in mind that news and rumours/speculation/political issues ect plays a large part on trading oil everyday.
I also bet you dont trade off a 200ma on oil (successfully and consistantly).

In short, 200ma is way too much for this market, by the time you get a signal the market is either at the bottom or threatening a reversal. Far too vague.

 

[TWI]

From the Oil Drum
Here is Chuck Watson at KAC/UCF's landfall composite damage estimate for Gulf (GOM) oil and NG production, which covers the GoM loss for the month of September in to the context of overall oil production, imports, and refining. Note for those crunching the numbers that since GoM is about 25% of US production, 40% of the GOM's contribution of 25% is 10% of the total US production.

COMP ATCF Forecast Time: 2008090112
14 day: 8.21 MMBBL ( 52.36% normal), gas 63.50 BCF ( 65.91% normal)
30 day: 19.98 MMBBL ( 59.46% normal), gas 145.98 BCF ( 70.70% normal)
60 day: 43.01 MMBBL ( 64.00% normal), gas 304.43 BCF ( 73.73% normal)
90 day: 95.23 MMBBL ( 94.47% normal), gas 586.06 BCF ( 94.62% normal)
6 mon : 195.13 MMBBL ( 96.79% normal), gas 1205.43 BCF ( 97.31% normal)
1 year: 400.48 MMBBL ( 97.96% normal), gas 2478.60 BCF ( 98.67% normal)
Interpretation: the models say that 40% of GOM oil will be offline for 30 days
Address : <http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4480#more>

It is interesting how this news is so very bearish. There is an extremely important interest to get the crude price down and as price action dictates the volume that will hit any rally is huge. There is no longer the normal relationship of fundamentals to market price that would have been seen in the past and to trade this market it is necessary only to follow price action and scratch your head about how forward paper markets relate to spot cargoes...never seen anythign like it but I am noot going to be the one to go up against the concerted intervention in $, Crude, Gold or any of the others. Just have to go with the flow.

 

[jasper36]

i dont listen to bloomberg and dont trade 200dayers and i dont buy into trends heading in the opposite direction.veteran

 

[Lee Shepherd]

i dont listen to bloomberg and dont trade 200dayers and i dont buy into trends heading in the opposite direction.veteran

Regarding:

crude has broken the 200 day moving average i don't know if that means anything to you.I wouldn't be buying while it was approaching such an attractive number.You went long just above the moving average ,you would of been content with your original stop.

O.k, so if you dont trade the 200ma, dont buy into trends heading in the opposite direction and dont listen to bloomberg and yet give advice on the 200ma about going long above the moving average ect, then:

Its fare to ask you what you asked of a newbie (seeing as your veteran).

Crude has hit the 200 day moving average, what does this mean to you???

I ask this cos it means nowt to me and want to hear your opinion on the matter.

 

[jasper36]

i dont want to be seen as a veteran but i do have opinions and i love to trade and i enjoy reading all the trading posts its all good.With the oil matter firstly i only trade in the direction where i think the trend is heading,i'd say we now have a tradin range of 115/118 to 105/103,i would sit for a short,opportunity at 115/118 it could take 2 days,it could take 2weeks who knows.what do i think about what oil is doing or where it going to be in a months time who knows.but hey you may see this as an awsome opportunity to go long on yeterdays level ride it beyond the 115/118 its just depends on the individual . cheers dude

 

[Lee Shepherd]

i dont want to be seen as a veteran but i do have opinions and i love to trade and i enjoy reading all the trading posts its all good.With the oil matter firstly i only trade in the direction where i think the trend is heading,i'd say we now have a tradin range of 115/118 to 105/103,i would sit for a short,opportunity at 115/118 it could take 2 days,it could take 2weeks who knows.what do i think about what oil is doing or where it going to be in a months time who knows.but hey you may see this as an awsome opportunity to go long on yeterdays level ride it beyond the 115/118 its just depends on the individual . cheers dude

Jasper, Jasper, Jasper.

Timing is absolutely everything when trading my friend.
To say it may do this in 2 days, the next week, 2 weeks ect is absolutely no good to man nor beast. What if it goes offside by several hundred points, no doubt it will in a day let alone a few weeks. Then what, do we hold and hope that it will turn around or do we jump in and out until it gives us that signal, I dont know, I'm just going on what you say here.

Your sounding like a no good analyst (no offense), they either quote the price and give no time or give the time and give no price. Either one is no good to trade from and no help to others at all.

 

[jasper36]

anaylst's anaylse and traders trade i trade.I trade on the medium term.Nobody can predict whats going to happen if they say they can well then,then they are liars.All i am saying i believe that oil is trending down and i have real order to sell at 116 so thats my trade for oil.Very simple,and so what if it goes offside if you have a risk stradegy in place who cares there are trading opportunities everywhere you will have wins and losses i have been trading long enough to accept it.I dont spend a huge amount of time in front of a computer,looking for every little opportunity,the market is going to dissappear.I have traded for over ten years and have slowly and patiently accumulated money,you would be surprised how much you end up with.But hey i did start with a hard and fast attitude intra day trading in the beginning i won big money and lost more that was a long time ago now

 

[gle101]

anaylst's anaylse and traders trade i trade.I trade on the medium term.Nobody can predict whats going to happen if they say they can well then,then they are liars.All i am saying i believe that oil is trending down and i have real order to sell at 116 so thats my trade for oil.Very simple,and so what if it goes offside if you have a risk stradegy in place who cares there are trading opportunities everywhere you will have wins and losses i have been trading long enough to accept it.I dont spend a huge amount of time in front of a computer,looking for every little opportunity,the market is going to dissappear.I have traded for over ten years and have slowly and patiently accumulated money,you would be surprised how much you end up with.But hey i did start with a hard and fast attitude intra day trading in the beginning i won big money and lost more that was a long time ago now

I think we somewhat got off the subject of this thread. This trader was in a tight spot. What could he do as his crude position had gone against him, and he had moved the stop loss? As you are saying no one knows where the market is heading. Either suggestion in the direction could be wrong. immediately exit the position would probably be the right thing to do in his situation, as the original stop loss had been altered.

 

[Lee Shepherd]

anaylst's anaylse and traders trade i trade.I trade on the medium term.:!:Nobody can predict whats going to happen if they say they can well then,then they are liars.:!:All i am saying i believe that oil is trending down and i have real order to sell at 116 so thats my trade for oil.Very simple,and so what if it goes offside if you have a risk stradegy in place who cares there are trading opportunities everywhere you will have wins and losses i have been trading long enough to accept it.I dont spend a huge amount of time in front of a computer,looking for every little opportunity,the market is going to dissappear.I have traded for over ten years and have slowly and patiently accumulated money,you would be surprised how much you end up with.But hey i did start with a hard and fast attitude intra day trading in the beginning i won big money and lost more that was a long time ago now

:!:You sure you're a trader.

I predict therefore I must be a liar.

Hang on a minute, you predict too, you're a liar as well, we're all liars.

All traders predict you silly billy. You take the info that is available then you make an educated guess of what will happen, ie, a statement of a possible event to come, a certain outcome, a forecast, ect ect.

Understand the word prediction then you'll understand what it is you actually do because without prediction...you know for sure.

Prediction - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Pay special attention to the first boxed paragraph titled: Informal prediction from hypothesis