The Weekend Commodities Review
A Market Review and Opinion Report By Head Analyst James Mound
For the Week Ending October 3rd, 2010
Last week did not offer the timing I anticipated for an industry wide commodity and stock selloff as economic and energy inventory data helped to spike the stock and energy markets. The dynamic that I see, however, has not changed and therefore I continue to anticipate a massive price correction in the very near term in stocks, energies, grains, meats and softs. The dollar is a screaming buy and should rally rapidly to 83 before month’s end.
Dead wrong on oil last week, so no sense sugar coating it. The market spiked on bullish inventory numbers, a declining dollar and strong economic data. Overall, crude oil and its derivatives are in a bull breakout, one that I expect to be short-lived due to a U.S. dollar reversal. Natural gas continues to play counter trend to oil, an interesting divergence that should help it to rally amid an oil reversal.
Stocks pushed higher on strong economic data, but overall the market appears to set to top below 1161.75 and that reversal could come in a very vertical decline. I expect the S&P to drop at least 100 points in the near term, perhaps just 30 days or less. Bonds have congested and are not worthy of a position despite the anticipated decline in the S&P. The dollar is the play this month, with a move to 83 expected during October and the potential for a full reversal to a long term bullish trend on a break above 84.
**Chart courtesy of Gecko Software's TracknTrade
On a technical level the dollar is likely to bottom out in the next couple of days and fill the monthly consolidation pattern that I see developing. The euro, pound, Aussie and Canadian should all see strong declines. The yen rallied to erase the intervention move, as anticipated. Now it is a matter of whether or not the BOJ is going to step in again or just let this puppy run to 125 straight away! I continue to stand by my forecast that:
The Japanese Yen futures will hit 140 before 80 or I will quit writing the Weekend Commodities Review…forever.
Grains collapsed this week on revised grain stocks and have set a clear top. The 300 million bushel shocker is the real deal, but remember this is a survey primarily of commercials and there is very little verification of reporting. This means don’t believe everything you hear, whether it’s in June or September. I expect corn, wheat and soybeans to decline rapidly and would be shocked if the market set fresh highs this year. Jump on the short.
The bear play in grains extends to meats with hogs and cattle showing nasty bear turns coinciding with the grain reversal.
To repeat the comments from last week, gold and silver continue to lack sellers during a period where the markets are bullish during stock market rallies. This is a bubble getting ready to burst. The vertical momentum of this rally has increased, which is what is necessary to create sellers. Look at a straight near term put play in either market to capitalize on a volatility spike to the downside. Copper is a strong short and will reverse rapidly when the dollar turns – which should be momentarily!
Coffee has turned bearish near term, likely to see more downside on a dollar rally. While it is possible the high is in for coffee, I would not make that final determination just yet. Cocoa is a strong short, likely to test the wild lows set on Thursday. Cotton is also a big-time sell with a sharp decline to 88 expected. Sugar is also a short with a top potentially in and a move below 1980 anticipated. OJ has likely seen a weather related top and a decline to 135 should occur by month’s end. Lumber remains a buy on dips.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
___________________________________________________________________*Disclaimer: There is risk of loss in all commodities trading. Losses can exceed your account size and/or margin requirements. Commodities trading can be extremely risky and is not for everyone. Some option strategies have unlimited risk. Educate yourself on the risks and rewards of such investing prior to trading. Past Performance is not indicative of future results. Information provided is compiled by sources believed to be reliable. JMTG or its principals assume no responsibility for any errors or omissions as the information may not be complete or events may have been cancelled or rescheduled. Options do not necessarily move in lock step with the underlying futures movement. Any copy, reprint, broadcast or distribution of this report of any kind is prohibited without the express written consent of James Mound Trading Group LLC.