It´s All Business Cycles. Property, Auto, Econ. - Anyone here go to school?

[experienced_it_all]

How come people act like all this stuff is new. Crisis, Crisis, Crisis!?!? For Who? People who invested at the wrong part of the cycle. The people who thought everything would keep going up forever? Are these the same people who now think everything will keep going down forever?!?

If the U.S. and Global economies were at huge record highs, doesn't it make sense that we would be going through record decreases? It is attrition in the business cycle, nothing more, nothing less.

I want to post this ahead of time so I am on record as well.

Autos - Ford Motor Co. (F) will be back above $15 in 3 years.

Housing (U.S.) - Starting sometime in 2010 and for 2 or 3 years after, all you will hear is analysts talking about the rebound and how well the market is. Median home prices will be up over 30% in 2011.

U.S. Equity Markets - Booming by 2012.

Note - Detroit, MI suburbs (wealthy areas) were hit hard 2 years before the Sub-prime crisis. It was due to problems with the Auto-Industry and a catalyst for the Sub-prime housing crash and overall market crash. The Housing Market in this area was way over-priced when the stock market was booming. But now that prices have been obliterated, prices are under-valued and there WILL be a strong and sturdy climb back up.

It is all CYCLES! Remember from all your studies that Economic and Property cycles are different wave-lengths.
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O.K., now lets hear it from all you experts out there :smart:

 

[new_trader]

I want to be on record saying that there will be another financial crisis in 2029.

Don't say I didn't warn you!

 

[dcraig1]

How come people act like all this stuff is new. Crisis, Crisis, Crisis!?!? For Who? People who invested at the wrong part of the cycle. The people who thought everything would keep going up forever? Are these the same people who now think everything will keep going down forever?!?

If the U.S. and Global economies were at huge record highs, doesn't it make sense that we would be going through record decreases? It is attrition in the business cycle, nothing more, nothing less.

I want to post this ahead of time so I am on record as well.

Autos - Ford Motor Co. (F) will be back above $15 in 3 years.

Housing (U.S.) - Starting sometime in 2010 and for 2 or 3 years after, all you will hear is analysts talking about the rebound and how well the market is. Median home prices will be up over 30% in 2011.

U.S. Equity Markets - Booming by 2012.

Note - Detroit, MI suburbs (wealthy areas) were hit hard 2 years before the Sub-prime crisis. It was due to problems with the Auto-Industry and a catalyst for the Sub-prime housing crash and overall market crash. The Housing Market in this area was way over-priced when the stock market was booming. But now that prices have been obliterated, prices are under-valued and there WILL be a strong and sturdy climb back up.

It is all CYCLES! Remember from all your studies that Economic and Property cycles are different wave-lengths.
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O.K., now lets hear it from all you experts out there :smart:

Hmmm... Yes there are obviously economic cycles, but there is no law of nature that dictates a recovery by 2011, 2015 or any other time. Furthermore there is no law of nature that says that it will be the same this time. Declining US dominance is almost certainly going to make it "different this time" - in ways yet to be determined. Clinging to some rigid notion of cycles is far more likely to obscure what is going on, rather than illuminate it. Dogma not a substitute for analysis.

And I really don't care about the price of F in three years time.

 

[experienced_it_all]

Hmmm... Yes there are obviously economic cycles, but there is no law of nature that dictates a recovery by 2011, 2015 or any other time. Furthermore there is no law of nature that says that it will be the same this time. Declining US dominance is almost certainly going to make it "different this time" - in ways yet to be determined. Clinging to some rigid notion of cycles is far more likely to obscure what is going on, rather than illuminate it. Dogma not a substitute for analysis.

And I really don't care about the price of F in three years time.

Ha,Ha, Ha! :cheesy:

I didn´t say there was a "law" of anything. I´m just an elitist showing off my incredible knowledge :smart: It´s not a law of nature, it´s a law of economics.

Of course you don´t care about (F) in 3 years, you will be broke by then trading 10K GBP against institutions with Billions in FX! (Look up the word LEVERAGE if you don´t understand)

Oh, and who asked you if you care?

I love this place, people get so if you give an opinion. Is this a forum?? Did I come into your kitchen with a knife

 

[experienced_it_all]

I want to be on record saying that there will be another financial crisis in 2029.

Don't say I didn't warn you!

Finally, someone with vision!!

Most opinions on this site are based on SHORT-TERM LOSING, I mean short-term trading!!!

 

[Trader333]

In my view any recovery will require the purchasing of debt or at least a willingness to do so and so far everyone is running scared from even considering it. This is a key difference in this cyclical downturn when compared to all others back to the 1930s. It is noticeable that those who provide mortgages and other loans to businesses and individuals are only now offering them to those who have no need of it in the first place. In other words no lending institution is willing to take any risk and without that economies cannot grow in my view.


Paul

 

[Black Swan]

I want to be on record saying that there will be another financial crisis in 2029.

Don't say I didn't warn you!

that's assuming we get out of this one by then. Not sure how relevant Fred Harrison's musings on 18 year cycles is to this thread, worth a read IMHO.

Boom Bust
House Prices, Banking and the Depression of 2010
by Fred Harrison
Boom Bust by Fred Harrison, ISBN: 9780856832543 at the Global Investor Bookshop

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred_Harrison_(Author)

 

[Rossini]

Ha,Ha, Ha! :cheesy:

I didn´t say there was a "law" of anything. I´m just an elitist showing off my incredible knowledge :smart: It´s not a law of nature, it´s a law of economics.

Of course you don´t care about (F) in 3 years, you will be broke by then trading 10K GBP against institutions with Billions in FX! (Look up the word LEVERAGE if you don´t understand)

Oh, and who asked you if you care?

I love this place, people get so if you give an opinion. Is this a forum?? Did I come into your kitchen with a knife

Your come across like a total idiot. Not because you have an opinion (although if you felt strongly enough that you were right, surely you would be positioning yourself to benefit from this view point?) but because you seem rude and arrogant. Anyway, what does how much money you have, have any relation to success trading financial markets (FX)? None!

 

[chump]

In my view any recovery will require the purchasing of debt or at least a willingness to do so and so far everyone is running scared from even considering it. This is a key difference in this cyclical downturn when compared to all others back to the 1930s. It is noticeable that those who provide mortgages and other loans to businesses and individuals are only now offering them to those who have no need of it in the first place. In other words no lending institution is willing to take any risk and without that economies cannot grow in my view.


Paul

Paul, I've been buying it and I'm the most cautious person i know.Take it for whatever it's worth..Nowt...LOL ...but the grim reapers are running out of torchpaper.

 

[experienced_it_all]

Your come across like a total idiot. Not because you have an opinion (although if you felt strongly enough that you were right, surely you would be positioning yourself to benefit from this view point?) but because you seem rude and arrogant. Anyway, what does how much money you have, have any relation to success trading financial markets (FX)? None!

Don´t be so sensitive buddy. Was my first post so harsh? I didn´t mean you personally. I was a little sarcastic but hey...

What relation does amount of capital and success in FX have? NONE??? Who´s the idiot?? Let me explain it to you as a professional trader for large institutions; while you are sitting there sweating out your position, hoping to God on both knees that the market doesn´t go up or down too far to knock you out, institutions are controlling the flow with huge amounts of capital, running up and down resistance and support levels, using all the amateur investors capital to take their gains. Next time I will explain the necessity for volume on a stock purchase... take it easy, just a joke.

Anyway, to the few people who actually had intelligent comments about housing (yes, I excluded myself) kudos! I think Paul´s points are valid, but I just do not think you can rely on watching what the institutions do or you are too late. If you want to make money, you usually have to do the opposite of what the news is saying and try to get in with or before the institutions. It takes risk, but it takes vision as well. I think it is a much better situation in the U.S. right now or at least the market will turn there before here in Europe.

Look at the 5 year price chart on U.S. housing, the prices are up!!! The only people who are screwed right now are people who bought on the bubble.

 

[Rossini]

Don´t be so sensitive buddy. Was my first post so harsh? I didn´t mean you personally. I was a little sarcastic but hey...

I didn't take it personally, this is a public forum after all. I just don't like the way you type.

What relation does amount of capital and success in FX have? NONE??? Who´s the idiot??Not me. Let me explain it to you as a professional trader for large institutions; while you are sitting there sweating out your position, hoping to God on both knees that the market doesn´t go up or down too far to knock you out, institutions are controlling the flow with huge amounts of capital, running up and down resistance and support levels. Of course, and my only concern is jumping on and off as I see fit.
Anyway, to the few people who actually had intelligent comments about housing (yes, I excluded myself) kudos! I think Paul´s points are valid, but I just do not think you can rely on watching what the institutions do or you are too late.I don't watch anything except the chart, what else have I to go on. If you want to make money, you usually have to do the opposite of what the news is saying and try to get in with or before the institutions. It takes risk, but it takes vision as well.Risk is the only thing I have under my control, hence I do not ''sit there sweating'' as you put it. I think it is a much better situation in the U.S. right now or at least the market will turn there before here in Europe.

Look at the 5 year price chart on U.S. housing, the prices are up!!! The only people who are screwed right now are people who bought on the bubble.Obviously.

.

 

[TheBramble]

Be nice to CYOF...

 

[Mr. Charts]

:clap::clap::clap:

Be nice to CYOF...

 

[experienced_it_all]

Market fears, Warren Buffett says "Get greedy when others are afriad"

Rossini, you probably do better than him though, with all your jumping in an out of the market and all...

Rossini´s reply, "I didn´t say I .... blah, blah, blah!"

This thread is garbage, I promise to stop getting my kicks out taunting people.

I am going back to "Anyone got 1K GBP to invest?". So many people jumped on that one it was more fun.

 

[apmf]

Market fears, Warren Buffett says "Get greedy when others are afriad"

I am going back to "Anyone got 1K GBP to invest?". So many people jumped on that one it was more fun.

If we look at historic prices of economies GDP figures and other statics then we may always see a uptrend with some intermediate downtrend, IMHO if some one is a pure investor then he/she should look at BRIC's and other emerging nations where correction has been more than 50%. I have not done much of analysis but according to Jim O'Neill (Head of Global Economic Research at Goldman Sachs) by 2040 or before China will take over U.S (gdp wise), India following U.S (gbp wise) at 3rd postion etc etc...
http://www2.goldmansachs.com/ideas/brics/book/99-dreaming.pdf
Goldman Sachs | BRICs

My point is if someone is so patient to wait for that long any one will probably end up making a fortune without any efforts and less money, considering apprecaition of currency value (predicted 300%+) and the value of stock indexes etc.
PS: I am in no ways preaching or giving out investment advice please do your due diligence
Any comments are much appreciated

 

[Black Swan]

Market fears, Warren Buffett says "Get greedy when others are afriad"

Rossini, you probably do better than him though, with all your jumping in an out of the market and all...

Rossini´s reply, "I didn´t say I .... blah, blah, blah!"

This thread is garbage, I promise to stop getting my kicks out taunting people.

I am going back to "Anyone got 1K GBP to invest?". So many people jumped on that one it was more fun.

Fooking 'ell, a feral internet troll on a trading forum, you must be so proud...

 

[0007]

It is all CYCLES! Remember from all your studies that Economic and Property cycles are different wave-lengths.
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O.K., now lets hear it from all you experts out there :smart:

Quite right. And that's why it's possible to make money at any stage of the economic / property or any other cycle - just choose your market and work out the cycle(s).

 

[experienced_it_all]

My point is if someone is so patient to wait for that long any one will probably end up making a fortune without any efforts and less money, considering apprecaition of currency value (predicted 300%+) and the value of stock indexes etc.
PS: I am in no ways preaching or giving out investment advice please do your due diligence
Any comments are much appreciated

Exactly! No doubt you can make money between the cycles, but you will make just as much, and usually more, if you play long trends with smart money. I think most people on here play the market for fun or to stay occupied. But only the top 5% or less are going to actually make solid, consistent returns.

But I don´t think you have to wait until 2040 either. It doesn´t always take that long, I have more than doubled my money w/ Ford but why not just wait until it´s over $15? (1,000% over 2yrs. / safe bet getting a $6 Billion Co. for $1.5)

"Employers slashed a net total of 663,000 jobs last month, slightly worse than the 654,000 economists expected. The employment rate jumped to 8.5 percent, its highest level since late 1983, when the economy was emerging from another deep recession." -AP

Sure, the U.S. was in its highest growth period since then as well so this is GOOD news. Companies are fit again, which means they will be efficient and can become profitable.

My original post was not to get people angry (although seems i´m a bit of a troll!). It is the daily news that gets under my skin, acting like the general public are a bunch of idiots that can´t possibly remember what they said the week before. When I hear things like "There`s no end in sight for this crisis!" - well, look a bit further ahead than tomorrow!!! It is absolutely not possible that there is no end.

 

[blancspa]

http://www.cyclesresearchinstitute.org/journal/CRI200511-oilprices.pdf