The latest bullish meme floating around Wall Street is that President Donald Trump is going to unleash a new era of big fiscal spending. As a result, lackluster U.S. economic growth is going to finally accelerate to the upside. Inflation is going to pick up. In a nutshell, this is the narrative which has triggered a huge rip higher in the U.S. stock market.
Be careful accepting that bullish narrative as gospel.
Take a look at history – it offers investors some interesting perspective. In particular, the post-election market between 1980 and 1982. On November 4, 1980, Ronald Reagan was elected president. The country appeared to be riding high.
The stock market rallied – big. In fact, the S&P 500 jumped 7% from the day of Reagan’s victory to the end of November. The market top was in.
Of course, the Reagan administration had its hands full with a serious recession. Stocks fell 22% from the day of Reagan’s...
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