Golds banging on the ceiling..........

GotGold

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Knock, knock.............it's only a matter of time.
 

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Yes it is, but I think all Gold believers (myself included) are still going to be jacked around. I'm just waiting for the time within about 2 weeks when they smash Gold for another $10-$15 in a matter of hours (starting time 12 noon London, you can set your clock by it).

Still the dyke has major leaks as we all know and if it doesn't break today, this week or this month then it doesn't really matter because it just means we're all closer to the actual day that it does break....

Been looking at buying some Galahad (GLA) but never realised it's an AIM stock and IB doesn't let you deal outside the big market. Still if they fall below 10p then I'm going to open another brokerage account because I think that stocks got 100p written all over it sometime over the next 5 years, assuming of course Gold does make the big move many of us are expecting. Time will tell......
 
anley said:
Yes it is, but I think all Gold believers (myself included) are still going to be jacked around. I'm just waiting for the time within about 2 weeks when they smash Gold for another $10-$15 in a matter of hours (starting time 12 noon London, you can set your clock by it).

Still the dyke has major leaks as we all know and if it doesn't break today, this week or this month then it doesn't really matter because it just means we're all closer to the actual day that it does break....

Been looking at buying some Galahad (GLA) but never realised it's an AIM stock and IB doesn't let you deal outside the big market. Still if they fall below 10p then I'm going to open another brokerage account because I think that stocks got 100p written all over it sometime over the next 5 years, assuming of course Gold does make the big move many of us are expecting. Time will tell......

Anley, who are THEY to whom you refer?

Ultimate direction of gold will IMHO depend on how US solves its monetary problems; will either inflationary or deflationary forces prevail. Inflating out of debt will cause USD to drop and likely result in the major gold bull market (in $) which goldbulls have been hoping/waiting for. The deflationary trajectory is more uncertain, both in term of USD exch rate and gold price.

Anyway, as for the immediate future have a look at the attached charts, they do point IMHO that one shouldn't take a gold lift-off from current levels for granted. Neg divergence all over the shop, but, hey, who knows so we should keep trading what we see and not our view (when it comes down to gold that can at times be very difficult, isn't it).

NB It's full moon and there have been a statistically relevant number of tops/bottoms in precious metals on full moons,
NB2 Under certain wave counts, next leg down could even be in order of possibly a $60+ towards $370! Much will depend on USD on which people appear excessively bearish.
 

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'They' are the anti-gold brigade, Central Banks, banks who've got a lot big short gold positions due to the lease-trade (borrow gold at 0.5%, sell it short and then use the money to generate a much higher rate of return). The trade has worked beautifully for many years as gold has fallen but one day the piper must be paid.
 
anley said:
'They' are the anti-gold brigade, Central Banks, banks who've got a lot big short gold positions due to the lease-trade (borrow gold at 0.5%, sell it short and then use the money to generate a much higher rate of return). The trade has worked beautifully for many years as gold has fallen but one day the piper must be paid.

Another gold price factor, which could turn out to be significant, is the Blanchard & Co -v- Barrick Gold & JP Morgan class action in the US.

The case has been accepted for hearing and is at 'discovery stage'. It alleges illegal price manipulation to the detriment of investors. Basically the story is that over an extended period, Barrick (a producer) conspired with JP Morgan Chase to depress the gold price. One of the more startling aspects of the case is it appears that the volume of paper short contracts held by Barrick (and issued by Morgan on an automatically renewable and unlimited credit facility) has regularly exceeded the entire official world stock of gold!

It's a labyrinthine story with the principle defence used to try and block the hearing (until it failed) being that JP Morgan was acting as agent for the US Federal Reserve and was therefore subject to sovereign imunity! There is clearly something they don't want the world to know.

The case has probably ensured that, whatever they were up to, they aren't any longer (at least until the case is resolved anyway). It is certainly true that Barrick has ceased hedging its gold production against gold price declines - so that's a start!.

Here's a reference to the case details: https://www.savegold.com/classaction.html
 
Short oil long gold was the trade. They were so out of sinc, it was very low risk reward. Shame, I saw it but didn't take it.
 
GotGold said:
Knock, knock.............it's only a matter of time.

Looks like it has then...Broken long term resistance at 430ish. Looking to buy on a pull back / up turn from a swing low?
 

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DJ Gold Could Fall In Wake Of Buying For New ETFs

DJ Gold Could Fall In Wake Of Buying For New ETFs - Mitsui
(Repeating)


SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--The price of gold could fall once the effect of buying
associated with the coming launch of two U.S. gold-backed exchange-traded
funds subsides, according to a leading analyst with Mitsui Global Precious
Metals.

"The elephant tracks of pre-U.S. launch buying are easily detectable all
over the place," said Mitsui's Andy Smith in a weekly note, estimating that
the funds' sponsors may have already bought as much as 460 tons of physical
gold.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is reportedly close to agreeing
to the launch of the two funds, with the World Gold Council's 'streetTRACKS'
Gold Trust expected to be trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the
symbol "GLD" within days.

The second ETF, from Barclays Global Investors, will be known as the
iShares Comex Gold Trust and will trade on the American Stock Exchange under
the symbol "IAU". It is expected to be launched soon after 'streetTRACKS'.

Both funds are based on similar products already trading in Australia, the
United Kingdom and South Africa. They are designed to give U.S. investors the
opportunity to invest in shares backed by actual physical gold, thus
providing exposure to the gold price, but without requiring actual custody of
the metal, which can sometimes be costly.

The new ETFs are being launched amid strong interest in gold given that the
yellow metal has posted a series of successive 16-year highs in recent days.

But Smith noted that the fund sponsors themselves have warned in their SEC
submissions of a "pre-delivery impact" on prices, suggesting gold may have
been driven artificially higher in recent weeks.

For instance, the World Gold Trust explained to investors that "purchasing
activity associated with acquiring the gold required for deposit into the
Trust...may temporarily increase the market price of gold."

Smith arrived at the 460 tons figure by assuming that both new U.S. funds
had, in deciding how much gold to purchase, separately multiplied the amount
of gold digested by the British version by five. This multiple accounts for
the proportion by which the population of the U.S. exceeds that of the U.K.,
he said.

The London-listed version, known as Gold Bullion Securities, has to date
absorbed 46 tons of gold.

Smith surmised that the ETF sponsors have already bought something
approaching 460 tons of gold, placed some in Comex warehouses, hedged some or
most of their price risk with near-dated put options, and purchased longer
dated calls against their hopes of sustained interest in the new funds.

"This physical and call buying would partly explain why gold charged
onward... through a clear U.S. election result (wasn't a stalemate the long
gold bet?) and very strong U.S. jobs numbers (enough to pause gold's rampage
all this year)," he explained in his report.

But Smith said that if gold begins to fall, the call-related buying might
switch to selling. "And, potentially, the 400-plus tons already pre-
purchased begins to shrink like an elephant that's seen a mouse. Add this
wobbly long to the 716 tons worth of net speculator longs on Comex, futures
and options, and Tocom, and you have a stampede not to stand in front of," he
warned.

At 0824 GMT, spot gold was quoted at US$442.65 a troy ounce.
 
Launch today of gold shares valued a 1/10 oz

World Gold council facilitating the next Gold boom? I think so but not yet. We might have to wait a few more years.

Paper gold for New York Thursday
By: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: '18-NOV-04 00:00' GMT © Mineweb 1997-2004


RENO--(Mineweb.com) The Boston bureau of CBS Marketwatch reported Wednesday that the first U.S. gold ETF will be launched Thursday by streetTracks Gold Trust (GLD).

Boston-based State Street is the marketing agent for the fund, which has been co-created by the World Gold Trust Services division of the World Gold Council.

On Tuesday, streetTRACKS Gold Trust filed a Form S-1 Registration Statement with the SEC. If the news reports are correct, streetTRACKS Gold Trust will issue up to 120 million gold shares and 2,3 million underwritten shares through UBS Securities LLC. Delivery of the underwritten shares is expected to be made between November 23 and 26, 2004.

The trust is an investment trust, which was formed on November 12, 2004. Its sponsor is World Gold Trust Service, which is wholly owned by the World Gold Council. The trustee is the Bank of New York, which is generally responsible for the day-to-day administration of the trust. The bank will determine the NAV of the Trust on each day the NYSE is open for regular trading, at the earlier of the London PM Fix for the day or 12 P.M. New York Time. HSBC's London vaults will serve as the actual custodian of the gold bullion belonging to the Trust.

The fund allows U.S. investors to invest directly in gold via the exchange-traded security. The World Gold Council's members have provided funding to cover ordinary operating expenses from 2004-2006. The investment objective of the trust is for the shares to reflect the performance of the price of gold bullion, less the trust's expenses.

Blocks of 100,000 shares are redeemable into gold bullion while shares should be initially priced at about 1/10th price of an ounce of gold. The ability to buy and sell in a moment's notices expected to be especially valued by gold investors concerned about the volatility of gold.

The offering of the shares is intended to overcome the logistics of buying, story and insuring gold which have been a barrier for some institutional and retail investors. For instance, pension funds, which have not been able to participate in the gold market, may now purchase and gold shares in the trust.

StreetTRACKS is the brand name of several ETFs managed by State Street Global Advisors. The World Gold Council is expected to commence a heavy U.S. marketing campaign and promote the gold ETF to brokers.

Many investors believe a U.S. gold EFT could positively impact the price of gold, which has already reached 16-year highs of $444/oz this week.

Barclays Global Investors has also filed with the SEC to launch the iShares COMEX Gold Trust.

It has taken the SEC 18 months to approve the first gold ETF. A gold ETF by Gold Bullion Securities was launched on the Australian Stock Exchange last year. Gold ETFs have also been listed in South Africa and England.
 
U.S. investors catch gold ETF fever

U.S. investors catch gold ETF fever
By: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: '19-NOV-04 04:00' GMT © Mineweb 1997-2004

RENO--(Mineweb.com) U.S. investors got a raging case of gold fever with the debut of the first domestic exchange-traded fund for gold Thursday.

The StreetTRACKS Gold Trust (GLD) began its first day of trading on a high note as $550 million were put into the fund on the NYSE Thursday. Meanwhile, gold bullion peaked at $445.90 an ounce, but dropped to $439.65 while spot gold ended the day at $441.25 an ounce.

GLD opened trading at $44.43. By the end of the market day, the shares closed down to $44.38 on a volume of 5,992,000 shares. Blocks of 100,000 shares are redeemable into gold bullion. Shares are priced at about 10% of the price of a gold ounce.

Boston-based StreetTRACKS is authorized to issue as many as 120 million shares or $4.5 billion in gold-backed equity. Sponsored by a subsidiary of the World Gold Council, the shares are designed to track the price of gold and trade like a continuously offered security. The shares cannot be created without the appropriate amount of gold first being delivered to the trustee, the Bank of New York. HSBC's London vaults serve as the actual custodian of the trust's gold bullion. The trust creates and redeems shares only in baskets of 100,000 shares. UBS Securities, LLC in NYC is the purchaser of the offering of 2.3 million underwritten shares. The World Gold Council's members have provided funds to cover ordinary operating expenses from 2004-2006. The Gold Council's World Gold Trust Services division co-created the trust.

StreetTRACKS is the brand name of several ETFs managed by State Street Global Advisors, the marketing agent for the fund. The company has established a website for the new offering www.streettracksgoldshares.com and offers a toll free phone number at 866-320-4053 for information.

The offering of the gold ETF shares is intended to overcome the logistics of buying, storing, and insuring gold. This has been a barrier for some institutional and retail investors, including pension funds, which have not been able to participate in the gold market. These investors may now buy gold-backed shares from the trust.

Analysts say the successful launch of the gold ETF could open the door for other commodity-linked ETFs. For instance, silver producers have been pushing a silver-backed ETF.

It took 18 months for the SEC to approve the first gold ETF for the U.S. although gold ETFs have been launched in Australia, South Africa, and England.

Barclays Global Investors has also filed with the SEC to launch the iShares COMEX Gold Trust.
 
Thanks for keeping this thread alive, I saw it last night put it on the watch list and got involved for a favourable move today. I am sure many have caught something of this trend already but today was strong.

I noticed however that the correlation with platinum appears to have unravelled a bit. I used to prefer platinum as it has little overhang but it overan substantially earlier. Anyone do a study on the last thirty years premium between plat and gold plat is now $856, this could possibly give us an upside target if they realign there relative relationship.

Happy trading.
 
Interesting Gold commentary copied in below:

When the dollar and sterling go down, they must go down
against something. Most likely, as is happening, they
go down against gold, the ultimate anti-
paper...nature's anti-dollar...the real money to which
investors tend to turn when the printing presses
overheat.

"I'm betting that there is a correction in gold before
it goes much higher," warns colleague Dan Denning. "Too
many people are long gold and short the dollar."

We hoping he's right. We'd like another opportunity to
buy gold below $400. Six months ago, we thought we'd
already seen the last of $400 gold. Maybe now, we
really have. Gold below £240/oz may soon be out of
reach, too.

But even better than gold, says our friend, and
"Investment biker", Jim Rogers, are commodities. "No
country has ever gotten itself into this kind of debt
situation has ever in history gotten out without a
crisis or a semi-crisis," says Rogers. America's crisis
is likely to cause investors to lose faith in US
stocks, bonds and the dollar. Instead, they will want
real assets - such as commodities and gold. Commodities
are typically quoted in dollars. As the dollar weakens,
commodities go up. But there's something else pushing
up commodity prices. Buy cotton, sugar and coffee, says
Rogers, because they are selling at historically low
prices, and because demand - particularly from Asia -
is growing rapidly.

According to Jim Rogers, commodities themselves, the
companies that produce them, and the countries that
export them will be big winners in the years ahead.
[Ed.Note: Take sugar for example - the chart says it
all:

"The World Grows a Sweet Tooth"
http://www.dailyreckoning.com/body_headline.cfm?id=4277&tp=a&nowversion=2
 
Further to my post #5 which evidenced further support for the gold bulls case, here are few thoughts and references that do just the opposite:

It appears that the custodial arrangements of the recently approved (by the SEC) and launched ETF (GLD) in the US allow for serious potential jiggery-pokery by the FED as does the London offering by the BOE.

Briefly, whilst the funds are promoted as a way of owning bullion, they could turn out to be little different to owning a futures contract (ie a promise to deliver physical gold) - but with no expiry date and no guarantee that your supposed physical gold actually exists. In both cases (London & US) one of the allowed sub-contracted holders of the physical bullion backing the funds can be respectively the FED and the BOE - neither of whom allow outside audit of their bullion holdings (if they actaually have any at all!!!). In other words, your tenth of an ounce of gold represented by your single ETF share could turn out to be a piece of BOE or FED paper promising to deliver that gold - and we all know what happened to a similar promise back in the Nixon era - it was repudiated.

The arrangement also provides the monetary authorities with additional tools to supress the gold price. The Blanchard -v- Barrick Gold case (whilst unresolved) having apparently removed one such long-standing method - for the time-being (see my post #5).

My guess is we can look forward to more serious manipulation with the footprint less easy to discern when spread over the futures AND these new funds. The funds could turn out to be just more additions to the fractional reserve banking system - SO BEWARE!

For a facinating discussion of all this, see James Turk's piece 'Where is the ETF's Gold' at: http://news.goldseek.com/JamesTurk/1101136353.php
 
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