Football gambling/trading - stragety and analysis

[r.j.e.turner]

Hello

Im planning to trade on football in the UK. I've an interest in football, studied economics and work in finance so think Im possibly clued up. What Im wondering is how best to approach this ~ I plan to be organised and diligent in my research and want to study a number of variables which might lead to under / over pricing of odds. Are there good programs to log results and other variables on or is excel the best?

 

[shadowninja]

I just use Excel. The most annoying thing about it all is that you cannot view historical data beyond the 90 minutes of the game.

One thing to bear in mind - simply placing a bet based on the current odds will not work in the long term. You need an edge which comes from identifying a pattern or knowing something the other traders don't know. The markets are very efficient... but not 100% efficient, in my opinion.

 

[r.j.e.turner]

Sorry what do you mean don't bet on current odds? ! What am i meant to bet on

 

[shadowninja]

I didn't say don't bet on the current odds; I said don't place a bet based on the current odds. For instance, if you bet your favourite team will win based on the price at kick off, over a season you should break even less commission. You will have no edge and the market will be fairly priced. You need to find inaccuracies in the market or trends. For instance, under 2.5 goals, when 2 goals have been scored, always tends to 1.0 as time approaches 90m, unless a goal is scored.

 

[adamscj]

You need to check out this page:
http://www.football-data.co.uk/data.php

Not only does it have 10yrs worth of football historical data (for free) it also gives a really good (basic) introduction to building a value based model for outsmarting the bookies.

Advice #2 - Forget the high street, do all your betting through Betfair as the prices are MUCH better

 

[shadowninja]

Thanks, Adam, but that doesn't give the historical odds which is of importance when backtesting. You know the graphs Betfair offer - I'd like to see those for all past games across the various markets.

 

[adamscj]

Thanks, Adam, but that doesn't give the historical odds which is of importance when backtesting. You know the graphs Betfair offer - I'd like to see those for all past games across the various markets.

It depends what kind of betting you're doing. It's it's pure value based, you only really care about the fixed odds at one certain point before the game. The data files on that link do have odds for all the games listed across a range of bookmakers and betting exchanges so can definitely be used for backtesting relative value type strategies, e.g. "Always lay the home team if they lost their last home match".

If you're interested into real-time arbitrage/short term predicative models then you're right, this data isn't good enough. There are companies that sell this kind of data or you hook up to the Betfair api and record it yourself. Doing this kind of strategy is much harder and more time consuming than the approach above, which I believe is what the original post was referring to

 

[shadowninja]

Yeah, I downloaded one of the files. I am more interested in shorter term.

Also, the starting price usually reflects the expected outcome - the market is very efficient. If you run Soccer Mystic (Bet Angel product), you can get detailed stuff like predicted odds if one goal is scored in the first 12 minutes of a game or the odds if no goals are scored. It really makes it difficult to make money these days from just placing outright bets because the bots have tightened things up. Browsing through Betfair's forums, it seems that one previously successful guy has pretty much given up because there is a lack of "value" these days.

 

[adamscj]

Yeah, I downloaded one of the files. I am more interested in shorter term.

Also, the starting price usually reflects the expected outcome - the market is very efficient. If you run Soccer Mystic (Bet Angel product), you can get detailed stuff like predicted odds if one goal is scored in the first 12 minutes of a game or the odds if no goals are scored. It really makes it difficult to make money these days from just placing outright bets because the bots have tightened things up. Browsing through Betfair's forums, it seems that one previously successful guy has pretty much given up because there is a lack of "value" these days.

yes I've also pretty much given up on my BF api access for sports - I just about use it for my systematic or value based strategy but with minimal funds, it's more just for punting around when I see something I like.

Out of interest, I've had much more success outside of sports - e.g. my wife (honest) was really into strictly come dancing and we made decent of money betting on the results of the tv shows. She used to watch all the behind the scenes stuff throughout the week and could always tell who was going to get good judges scores etc. The only problem is that these markets tend to be pretty illiquid, I think the most we picked up in one evening was a couple of hundred quid.

 

[shadowninja]

Haha, yeah I was going to bet on X Factor (Wagner).

 

[marcoose]

You need to check out this page:
http://www.football-data.co.uk/data.php

Not only does it have 10yrs worth of football historical data (for free) it also gives a really good (basic) introduction to building a value based model for outsmarting the bookies.

Advice #2 - Forget the high street, do all your betting through Betfair as the prices are MUCH better

Betfair certainly is the way forward - even after you have factored in the commission they take.

 

[monotonetuba]

The one and only profitable way of betting on football i have found is http://www.simplextrading.co.uk.
I along with a friend have used it but got out half way (in profit)through the system which revolves around a martingale betting system for draws.We started the system betting 10p each but boy does it mount up!If you have deep pockets and nerves of steal have a look at the website as they have not had a lose since they started in 2000.

 

[Rugby Trader]

wouldn't touch it with a barge pole.
it's a martingale strategy, you can end up betting over £10000 on a game to draw.

 

[monotonetuba]

I think that bet would be very unlikely starting with a 5p stake although i hear what your saying.
Do not forget that while one team may go on a long drawless run you are picking up profits on others.
I do believe in the integrity of the people running the site and they have never lost in a season which has to be considered.
But this form of betting should carry a government health warning.

 

[Getafix]

If a backing system can't make a profit at level stakes (to a justifiably bank size) it has no chance in the long run. A fancy staking mechanism will never turn a losing strategy into a winning one (over the long term)...esp Martingale, the low of the low!

Is there any point in betting if you can only earn 5p a bet? That coupled with "martingale" not great future prospects!

Avoid any staking system like the plaque that advocates martingale.

 

[Getafix]

that was supposed to read:

Avoid any system/service like the plaque that advocates martingale.

 

[Getafix]

*plague.

Going back to original topic you can get in-play historical odds from http://www.fracsoft.com/ but I imagine it isn't cheap.

 

[shadowninja]

Thanks, yes, I'd want thousands of matches. Well, I am just observing on-going games. In fact, I've changed my strategy thanks to observing in-play odds and am doing pretty well these days.

 

[monotonetuba]

If a backing system can't make a profit at level stakes (to a justifiably bank size) it has no chance in the long run. A fancy staking mechanism will never turn a losing strategy into a winning one (over the long term)...esp Martingale, the low of the low!

Is there any point in betting if you can only earn 5p a bet? That coupled with "martingale" not great future prospects!

Avoid any staking system like the plaque that advocates martingale.

I think your missing the point,of course you want a team to go on a long run but not to long where by you are staking hundrerds of pounds, but saying that i think the odds offered on draws is quite respectful.There is nothing 'fancy' about it.... you bet on a team to draw until they do then you start the whole process again but for some reason (not sure why) there is a cut off point for a team getting a draw which is December and a winning cycle is declared dead and that team no longer is bet on.I am not trying to promote this system or site but it has not lost since its inception and again that has to be considered unless you doubt their integrity in which case....whats the point of this discussion

 

[Optioholic]

The stock market has much better odds than sports betting.

If your in it for the mathematical based edges, stick to the market, not sports.

Some people can make it work, but if you ask me the stock market gives you so much more of a chance.