Fear of What?


Well-known member
434 6
Jimbo -

You asked in your original post if there was a great commodities BB.

Try David Duty (CTA) (US-based) and his student forum at :


Also, he has just developed a site called 'David's ChartBook' in which he regularly updates his Technical Analysis for each of the main commodities and currencies. Daily, Weekly and Monthly Analysis is inclued for most markets.



Established member
532 5
Great to see the various responses on Jimbo57 thread. Very encouraging.
I hope for all our sake that you all will also post ideas, charts, observations, questions so we can all improve our trading performance and general education in commodities trading.
I, for one, am really diggging into spreads and seasonal trading and would enjoy sharing ideas.

This BB will only get more widely used if traders/analysts post ideas which are of general interest.

May of you will start new commodity oriented trading threads. (and pls keep it concise!!)


702 14
Fear that an "event" will blow you out of the water
(That can be managed, and again can be used to create opportunity not destroy it).
I dabbled in commodities back the early 80's, when some of my family was farming. (Bramble - it was Ken Roberts who got me started too). I remember at the time being in cotton, and pretty ignorant of all trading theory. A broker named Nell at Lind-Waldock introduced to me to the concept of leaving the stop loss in the original position (Cut my losses short? I could even consider going with the market in the other direction? What a novel idea ..) But the interesting thing was the fear that gripped my gut when I saw beans go limit up several days in a row (I had been considering a short position).

At the time I didn't understand about purchasing an slightly out of the money option as an inexpensive hedge to 'an event'. Or selling a further out of the money option in the same direction as my contract holding to offset some of the spread and commissions.

I think risk management in commodities is just enough different from stocks that it takes a some effort to learn about it. I'm pretty sure I still don't quite understand it.

I expect there will be a growing interest in commodities (including the index futures and currencies) because of the pattern day trading rules that keep small traders from doing stocks. (Don't get me started on how unfair this is!)

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