Eurusd

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zombsta

Newbie
7 0
hmm, can't find any trade today since i was busy with stuff and any little time i had the chart was swinging up and down with no good setup. hopefully will be able to do more tomorrow. Cheers.
 

BLS

Established member
642 229
Actually i would have avoided the trade based on several reasons.

1) there was a long pullback bar just as it was about to test 1.25 (2 bars before your entry), which tells me there are strong resistance around that pt

2) pullback after it sneaked past 1.25 was followed by a series of bearish bars which to me looks like there is little upside support.

3) would have avoided trading at the significant level of 1.25 which has been tested and failed several times over the day. Would have bought in only if it had cleared the 1.25 level comfortably.

In general i avoid trading around +/- significant levels like 1.24, 1.25, 1.26 as you can easily get caught up on the wrong side.
Thanks for your input. Sometimes we are so blinded by our own biases that we miss some obvious signs.

hmm, can't find any trade today since i was busy with stuff and any little time i had the chart was swinging up and down with no good setup. hopefully will be able to do more tomorrow. Cheers.
Which sessions do you typically trade?

RB at E2. Since the trend was bullish, this was a counter trend trade.

The range is resting on former resistance of the bull flag (dotted box). The upper barrier was formed by (1) and (3), where we see two false breaks of the 00 level. The bottom barrier was formed by (2), (T1) and (T2). Up until (3), we don't have a clear idea of where prices are likely to go. After (3), prices drop down below the 20EMA, where sideline bulls enter and take out an earlier high that tested the 20EMA (4). Prices drop again but the bulls buy at the same level, with the bears shorting at a lower level (5). Things are looking up for the bears but they go and get served a tease break (T2). There is some resistance below the break but it is not in the way of my 10.8 pip target (very close though). I take the break when prices break the bottom barrier again but prices are unable to follow through on the break so I move my tipping point to the bottom barrier and end up exiting.

I think I am done for the day. I missed two good trades and took two losing ones for a 9 pip loss.
I sent an email to Bob Volman (his email address is on page 323) regarding this trade because I was unsure if this was premature or not. This trade is similar to examples 11.6 and 11.9 in the book.

His response to me:
"Your analysis seems pretty much spot on regarding the situation in the chart. The only problem with this trade is the fact that the bottom barrier seems a bit rough no matter where exactly you place it. But the pressure was down at the moment of entry, there was one more tease out of the way, so it was okay to enter short, though I would typify this one as slightly aggressive. But then again, that may be your style. Since there was very little follow-through from the sidelines and the market started to form a block against your position, it was okay to exit where you did and then look for something else to set up. All in all, good job."

My first and last trade of the day:

E1:
Taking this trade was a bit aggressive on my part. The overall pressure is bearish, with the bulls failing to retake the 80 area (1) after establishing a base of support (dotted box). Prices continued downward and bulls bought at support (2), creating a false break of the 20EMA. The bulls again buy at the same level of support (3) but the bears are shorting at slightly lower levels. There is a bit of an impasse as dojis are printed around the 20EMA, but the bears come out ahead and break the lower barrier of the box. With no resistance below, the path to my 10.8 pip target looks clear. I probably should have waited for more buildup but I thought those dojis hanging on the 20EMA showed enough tension to trade. Prices break the block, retested the bottom barrier, but are unable to follow through on the break of the 60 level. I get stopped out for -2.8 pip.
 

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zombsta

Newbie
7 0
i trade GMT+8 from 9am to around 10 or 11pm sometimes.

your trade seems reasonable enough for me, though i would waited for a few dojis at support level. Noticed your SL has always been low (eg. under 5 pips)? Can I ask what is your SL levels because you may actual hit your TP if you didn't get stopped out. Well, that's just a guess since i can't find your trade on my chart. Hahah
 

BLS

Established member
642 229
i trade GMT+8 from 9am to around 10 or 11pm sometimes.

your trade seems reasonable enough for me, though i would waited for a few dojis at support level. Noticed your SL has always been low (eg. under 5 pips)? Can I ask what is your SL levels because you may actual hit your TP if you didn't get stopped out. Well, that's just a guess since i can't find your trade on my chart. Hahah
Wow, your trading day is quite long. I usually start with the NY session and stop around the second half of the NY session because I find it to be quite...treacherous. Wish I could trade the first half of the London session as well but that would throw off my already weird sleeping schedule (for my time zone GMT-7).

Initial stop was about 5 pip in this case, then I lowered it to about 2 when prices pierced the bottom barrier before going down again. I probably need some work with the stop loss placement but I'm trying to follow the tipping point method from Volman's book. Perhaps I should reread that chapter. In this case I would not have made target even with the full 10 pip stop (support at the 60 level was too strong).

Off to sleep for me.
 

BLS

Established member
642 229
No trades for me today. Prices were more or less range bound between 1.244 and 1.242 areas.
 

BLS

Established member
642 229
Well I ****ed up big on Friday so unless someone is really interested in what happened I'm not going to make the effort to post Friday's trades.

Today's trade:

Prices finally broke out of this range hanging around the 1.26 handle after the ISM manufacturing numbers came out. You can see the typical digestion of the news with the price action for 7:00 to 7:03. The numbers came out worse than expected which intuitively means the dollar will weaken. I admit I entertained a bullish bias after the numbers came out and was confused with prices started to drop. I quickly realized my folly and changed outlook to neutral and tried to analyze price action. I was considering an ARB trade (S1) but felt that the price action inside the range did not support a bearish trade at that time. In other words, there were few clues pointing to the bears having the upper hand prior to the news release.

E1: I waited patiently for an opportunity to trade after that skipped ARB. Prices broke out of the range, tested it, then moved down even further. It looked like a new trend was forming so I kept my eyes peeled for a pullback setup. Prices pulled back to the 20EMA, printing an FB. I waited for the superior SB setup and after prices broke the first pullback high, the dropped back down again, making that break a false one. I was rather nervous when prices seemed to have trouble breaking the 83 level (green line) and I was considering lowering my stop 3 pip lower (lack of follow through on the break). I'm still skittish about the break even as prices drop below the 80 level in a slow manner. I see some stalling as prices reach within 0.5 pip of my target and I decide to close early. Again, I am rather unsure of adding 0.8 pip to my target so I am ready to close out early when the trade is over 10 pip in profit.

9.4 pip profit for me today.
 

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BLS

Established member
642 229
Sorry for not posting in awhile but I've been busy. I'll start with Tuesday's (7/3) charts even though I didn't take any trades.

S1: Skipped a DD setup. It just didn't look...right. There's that large bearish candle followed by some stalling and then a move down to the 60. That's followed by a pullback to the 20EMA but I just couldn’t bring myself to trade it. I was worried about the 60 level becoming support for prices. I think that is the only valid reason for skipping this trade. Everything else looks fine. We have a downward trend after some ranging, we have a pullback into the 20EMA that retraces about 40% of the last swing high and we have 3 dojis form at the end of the pullback. But we don't want to short into support.
 

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BLS

Established member
642 229
Still Tuesday (7/3) chart

S2: Skipped RB here. I had three opportunities but skipped them all. I convinced myself that taking a long trade would be a bad idea. This was reinforced by the fact that the upper barrier started to look vague as the breakout faltered and stalled for awhile, so I passed on the later opportunities. Let's see what clues we can scrape I hindsight.

We have a double bottom on the 60 level (1 and 2), meaning the bulls have established a base of support. The bulls bring prices up with some resistance from the bears, forming a mini double top (3 and 4). We now have a possible range barriers. With the trend before the range being down, the overall pressure now is in favor of the bears. There's some fighting around the 20EMA but the bears manage to bring prices down. The bulls haven't given up and start buying above support (5). The bears are either taking profit or the sideline bulls are entering, but either way, prices stall in a new level of support, which the bears test later (6). Again, renewed bullish interest leads the bulls to make a tease break (7). The next two opportunities come and go (8 and 9) but I still don't feel that their were enough clues to justify a countertrend trade. I guess 6 counts as an odd event. But even then, it still seems tricky to take this counter trend trade. That double bottom just doesn't seem prominent enough to convince traders the bearish trend is really over. I would like to see more price action before a break some along the lines of example 11.6 or 11.9 in the book.
 

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BLS

Established member
642 229
Still Tuesday (7/3) chart

M1: The trend was up. There was a potential for a trend equals trend phenomenon. The bottom range barrier finds support in the a bull flag pattern (1). We have a nice upper barrier (2 and 4), with a higher double bottom (3 and 5) above the 00 level. We also have a higher high (6) and some tension before the break. I think I should've taken this trade but I just did not feel like trading at the time and so wasn't very attentive. Could've taken this as a slightly aggressive RB or later as an ARB.


I didn't trade on 7/4 because is was a US holiday.
 

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BLS

Established member
642 229
7/5

DD: I was quite distracted with trying to catch up on what happened earlier while eating my sandwich so I missed this DD setups. The only thing to be worried about is support at the 20 since prices did bounce off that area.


E1: This was a snap decision trade, something that I haven't done in awhile . I was trying to fit the price action into my chart but given the big downward movements I had to scale the prices down, which made the candle bars look smaller. I saw a block form in a strong down trend and jumped on it without much though. I took this trade not realizing that my stop would be ~8 pip (the setup is 5 pip tall) from entry, something that is acceptable within my risk limit but too aggressive for me to trade. It would have been preferable to wait for some pre-breakout tension. My order ends up slipping 3 pip because prices broke out fast. The break appears to have been a false break of the 80 level and I get stopped out after moving my stop to a more economical (but still based on technical grounds) level.
 

BLS

Established member
642 229
ARB: Missed an ARB here because I was pretty distracted with watching Bloomberg TV (bad!). After that false break of the 80 level from E1, the bulls pushed prices back up the 1.2400 level and faced steep resistance from the bears (1). The bears managed to print a lower high (2) and proceeded to clobber the bulls all the way back down the 80 level (3). A round won by the bears. The bulls haven't given up yet and again buy at support but are only able to print more lower highs (4 and 5). The bottom barrier of the range is a bit ambiguous so that explains the hesitation after the break. We can draw a signal line of the tiny block of bars and trade the break of it.
 

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BLS

Established member
642 229
E2: I don't know that I was thinking when I took this trade. I was still distracted with watching Bloomberg TV. I tried to take this trade as an ARB at the time but looking back, this wasn't a valid setup. I tried to trade this as the pullback version of the ARB, where prices break a range barrier, pullback inside to the level of last resistance, form a stalling signal bar, and break downward. A couple problems with this trade: 1) The break of the bottom barrier matched an earlier low (1), which suggested support at that level; 2) prices pulls back and found the level of last resistance but stalled longer than preferred, suggesting that the break may be a tease. The biggest problem was that I was shorting into obvious support.


I end up losing 13.8 pip for the day because I was distracted and not completely focused on the chart.

No trades for me today (7/6) because I woke up too late and missed the release of the NFP numbers.
 

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zombsta

Newbie
7 0
ARB: Missed an ARB here because I was pretty distracted with watching Bloomberg TV (bad!). After that false break of the 80 level from E1, the bulls pushed prices back up the 1.2400 level and faced steep resistance from the bears (1). The bears managed to print a lower high (2) and proceeded to clobber the bulls all the way back down the 80 level (3). A round won by the bears. The bulls haven't given up yet and again buy at support but are only able to print more lower highs (4 and 5). The bottom barrier of the range is a bit ambiguous so that explains the hesitation after the break. We can draw a signal line of the tiny block of bars and trade the break of it.
while your trade was unfortunate, i would have taken another trade at point 2 because of the double top and also the second top was not even testing the previous high, the resistance seems strong and was poised for downwards movement. it's not the best of setup to enter but something i think is worth risking a trade.
 

Kalp

Junior member
12 1
Hi Guys,

My first post and contribution here of Friday's NFP set up. I trade Bob Volman's method and have attached my chart. I'm learning the method and welcome any comments.

-Kalps
 

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