eurusd / 6E new Bull market ???

[Trdr]

a funny thing happened on the way to the close on Friday
between 2:04:00 and 2:04:20 the DX $ contract fell from 77.60 to 74.60
300 pips in 20 seconds, 394 contracts traded
during the remainder of the session the DX climbed back up to close at 77.25
this DX mini 'flash crash' didn't appear to cause any other currency to react, no
spikes appear on any of the other futures or fx charts

the week before last I was going to but didn't post a new thread about the $ :
" The US Dollar
2 scenarios in mind:
1: since bottoming in March 2008, the $ has been forming waves 1-ABC2 of a new
bull market
if this C leg is a horizontal ABC W 2 , then the price should hold around the 74 area
time target - year end
2: the 08-Current formation is a Reversal formation, an AB/inverted H&S which will
see the price drop to or near to the 70 area; time target - March 2011
this obviously means that other currencies will go higher/lower - depending if you're
trading futures or fx - for as long as the $ continues to decline, with an expectation
of there being a $ retracement correction along the way - to 70
charts: historical Monthly . Daily . Monthly "

last week the euro's low hit the median line of the major secs and took off up, and
while the Tue LC closed a smidgen under a 38.2 fibo, the formation since Thur Oct
7 looks more like a H&S than anything else, meaning Downside to come, however
could we see a run-up to the 1.4150 area again ?
I have to say I'm guessing what will go on since I'm not getting much info from the
current wave formations in any timeframe
a possibility there's an abc in progress, Tues was a, b now with the completion
of a reversal formation after a few hours ? then down to around 1.3590 something
the timeline is we could go to Friday to hit the 50% fibo level and maybe form a
base between then and a LL until Tues Nov 3 - how much info is available about the
Mid Term results and when is it available ? a heavy week - MT, FOMC, BoE, ECB,
NFP

projection fibos I have on the D $ charts as well as other fibos have all worked and
the 74.60 hit targets precisely, but, a couple of months earlier than I'd expected
I've no idea why the $ went down as it did but it has hit Significant fibo levels, and
in theory, the $'s new bull market has begun


charts: DX 10sec . $ historical Monthly . $ Daily x 2 . $ Monthly . eurusd D

 

[Trdr]

a new week, month, and time, European clocks go back 1 hour this weekend and
North America next weekend

too many alternates and interpretations so here's some high and low price targets
based on the Oct 25-27 retracement fibo, previous highs/lows etc

highs:
1.4150 possible
1.4070-80 area
1.3990 area
lows:
1.3890 area
1.3865 area
1.3810 area
1.3590 longer term 50% fibo

an early selloff ? till Europe open ? a run-up into Tuesday the Wednesday session ?
the more important news releases begin Wednesday, a higher than expected NFP
and small lowering of the rate ?

the $DX Daily formation looks like it's completed its correction and on its way down
conversely looking at the 4H, if it holds the 77 area will it have completed w 1-2 and
on its way Up ?

 

[Trdr]

I'm looking at 3 scenarios: top - reversal formation; correction; w 1 of W 5

w 1 of W 5: I favor this scenario the least
top - reversal formation: this is a definite could-be, might-be, but still a no
correction: this is the one I am favoring

since I believe the $ will decline further, I also believe then the euro will continue to
rally, and that currently, it like the $ is completing a correction - C -
Oct 14-20 A, Oct 20-27 ab/reversal, Oct 27-Nov 4 B, Nov 4-x C
I believe that the Nov 4H-5L is the first of a possible 3 wave C down - maybe it'll be
5 but who's counting ?
retracement fibos on the 60m provide 38.2s around 1.41/4110 , 50.0s around 1.4125
/4135 and the 61.8s around 1.4150/4560+ and I'm thinking the rally will last most
of the night before turning down early Monday prior to the Tuesday session
just wondering if the price will open down or drop to 1.40 first before rallying, and if
so it may lower the lower upside targets
I'm also thinking the downside will end Wednesday around 1.39 - at least that's a
could-be, based on the 4H and D sec lines - the medians and confluence of major
retracement fibos. if it does so then it'll make for a short C, but still about 413 v 460
pips compared to A. if the median lines are broken then the next price target may
be the 1.38 area, but breaking the 1.37 level changes the scenario
Thur/Fri may see a reversal formation before the next rally begins next week ?

 

[Trdr]

while Friday's 1.3573 LL hit perfectly a 60m projection fibo, I expect lower prices
to come
today/Mon may see the euro close up, or set a H then begin to fall at the start or
into the Tuesday session continuing down till Friday
Friday's D LC was just above 38.2 correction fibos based on the Aug24 and the
Sep10 LLs, so we're looking at around 1.345/50.0 and 1.325/61.8 areas and which
would go through the current sec's outer boundary; however if the euro does that, it
isn't I think C but A of an ABC

an alternative is the price declines today, bottoms forming a base and then rallies -
this based on the 4H which appears to me to have done a 5 wave formation; so an
A complete, do a B anywhere up to 1.4050 - 61.8 retracement forming what begins
to look like the right shoulder of an H&S - a dropped right shoulder at that but copy-
ing to some extent the Oct14-27 formation ? but a move that's likely to last until
Nov26/29
that sort of move suggests even more of a major top than the October formation
even tho I'm still 'seeing' a close of 1.50 on the W and M before a major reversal
but again, there's an alternate, two actually based on the $

it/they have to do with that Oct 22 low down to 74.60 , whether or not it's legitimate
if so then the $ hit its target price and could now be said to have completed a w 1-2
or w 1 a and b complete c to come, after which the $ will continue to rally
if it was Nov 4's LC that was the bottom, whilst the rally could continue and there be
a possibly longer period of forming a correction before declining, there's also the
possibility of a drop straight thru the 74 level down to 71, possibly 65.50 - the 261.8
of the same fibo the Oct 22 low hit at 1.618, and seeing the euro at 1.48 and 1.57
respectively since its Nov 4 H was also a 1.618 hit

the matter then is who will break first, euro or dollar, and since together they form
the eurusd, they can't both go in the same direction — can they ?

 

[Trdr]

last Tuesday's euro low hit and stopped on a confluence of many lines, while the $
topped at an outer sec. the euro low was also on an outer sec; a second lower sec
suggests the price could drop down to this, which rising and depending if a L or LC
is used would see a similar low to Tuesday's - possibly lower - where it could form
a base

Thurs Nov 25 is the US Thanksgiving holiday and all markets will be closed, a thin
Thursday and possibly Friday too since many will likely take a long long-weekend
the new Greek IMF funding on Tuesday Nov 30, and while "It is already understood
that the spending and revenue targets for the Greek state will not have been met.
Nevertheless, the next tranche of €9bn ($12bn) of EU-IMF money will be released
next month, since apparent sincerity and new, revised promises are taken to count
for as much as actual compliance."
"Among the bankers and lawyers preparing for Greece’s forthcoming orderly default,
there is disagreement over timing. Some believe the dramatic, shocking announce-
ment and frantic public response should take place in the second quarter of 2011;
others think some time in the third quarter would be more appropriate."
'The Greek debt drama would be better played sooner than later' by John Dizard
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/04a18064-f459-11df-89a6-00144feab49a.html#axzz15toEkxdu

so if the euro's going to base, the $ will presumably form a reversal formation
my two choices for the euro are:
rally up to 1.370-1.373 reversal formation then down
decline's already begun - w 1 and 2 or, w 1 and a with b c to follow - 2 then down

the 60m chart definitely looks like a 5 wave formation, the 4H more like a 3 abc and
if it went 5, 1.375+ would be the 38.2 of the whole decline and 1.386+ the 50.0

maybe it stays up till the Tue/Wed then drops, presume the Irish funding is settled
along with the Greek, the decline could end by Friday, but could last till Tue/Wed
and/or there's another lengthy base like last week, then, a rally begins running until
the 'dramatic, shocking announcement'

 

[Trdr]

I'll no longer be updating this thread but starting instead a daily journal, here:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=210850