Defining the Trend

chris_808

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We have all heard the advice 'trade with the trend'. Well what I want to do in this thread is compare the different ways of defining the trend. I will compare them using 1 min data, 1 hour data, and daily data for about 10 different trading pairs. Then I will report back the results of each test for comparisons and discussion.

For testing when the system starts reporting the trend is up I will buy, then when it stops reporting the trend is up I will close the trade. Vice versa for when the trend is down. We can determine the winner by which ever method of detecting the trend is the most profitable.

Your method can report that the trend is either up or down, or your method can report the trend is up, down, or flat. Meaning it does not have to be an always in system. When describing your method please be clear so I don't have to start guessing what you meant.

I will start us off with the first trend detecting method. Using a 500MA when it is sloping upwards the trend is up and when it is sloping downwards the trend is down.
 
I would scrap the lagtastic MA's and just look at price. That will tell which way the trend is going. (e.g. Higher highs and lows = uptrend).
 
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