Data to consider for the Non-Farm Payrolls Week for the EUR/USD exchange rate

[AntaresScorpius]

The JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) and the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report are closely linked, even though they measure different aspects of the US labor market. Let's see how they influence each other. 👇

🧩 Differences between JOLTS and NFP
JOLTS measures:

Job openings

Hirings

Firings and resignations

Non-Farm Payrolls measures:

Net change in the number of employed workers (excluding agriculture, government, households, and non-profits)

🔄 How they influence each other
An increase in job openings in the JOLTS may predict a rise in the NFP, because more vacancies indicate potential new hires.

If the JOLTS shows high resignations, it may indicate workers' confidence in finding new jobs, which is reflected in a dynamic labor market and therefore positive NFP.

Conversely, a decline in hiring or an increase in layoffs in the JOLTS may signal a slowdown that is reflected in subsequent NFPs.

 

[AntaresScorpius]

The Services PMI reading above the 50 threshold (specifically, 52% in August 2025) indicates that the services sector is expanding. This is generally a positive sign for the economy and often accompanies employment growth.

However, there is an important detail: the employment index within the Services PMI is still in contraction territory, at 46.5%, although slightly improved from the previous month. This means that, despite the overall expansion of the sector, companies are still reducing staff numbers or hiring less.

🔍 So, what does this mean for Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)?

The Services PMI is a leading indicator and has a strong historical correlation with the NFP, but it is not a guarantee.

If the PMI shows expansion but the employment index is weak, the NFP could be moderately positive, but not necessarily strong.

Other factors, such as the manufacturing PMI, unemployment benefits, and wage data, also influence NFPs.

📊 According to some historical analyses, when the total PMI (services + manufacturing) is above 50 and the employment index is close to 47–48, NFPs tend to grow by between 100,000 and 160,000 jobs. So, yes, they're likely to be positive, but that doesn't necessarily mean they'll be explosive.